Maplebear Inc. (CART) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 4, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Maplebear Inc. stock $66.33, price $59.22, upside +12.0%, quality 80 out of 100. Rating: undervalued. Calculated from audited financials with 24 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 5, 2026.
How to read this chart
38‑month range $22.43 – $60.88 · fair‑value band $43.02 – $86.23 · the $59.22 price screens below the $66.33 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 5, 2026.
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Maplebear Inc., doing business as Instacart, operates as a technology and enablement partner for the grocery industry in the United States and internationally.
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The company offers Instacart Marketplace which helps retailers serve customers' needs by supporting fulfillment options, shopping occasions, and categories; Instacart Enterprise platform, an end-to-end technology solution for retailers across all aspects of business; and Instacart Ads, enables brands to learn more about general consumer behavior from discovery to purchase, offering insights about how to optimize advertising spend.
It also provides advertising solutions, including sponsored product ads, display ads, coupons, and brand pages; and software-as-a-service. The company's services can be provided through company's mobile application or website.
Maplebear Inc., was incorporated in 2012 and is headquartered in San Francisco, California.
Stock analysis
Maplebear Inc. (CART) currently trades at $59.22, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $66.33, implying the stock looks roughly 11% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $78.83 per share, and 10 of the 24 models we run sit above the $59.22 price.
Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at $16.63, and 14 of the 24 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $43.02 (bear) to $86.23 (bull), the price of $59.22 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 80/100 (high quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Maplebear Inc. reported revenue of $3.7B in FY2025 versus $1.8B in FY2021, a compound +19.5%/yr. Reported net income was $447M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $14.7B Large · P/E ratio 31.0 · P/S ratio 3.55 · EPS (TTM) $1.91 · Net margin 11.7% · Return on equity 15.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) −4.2% · Operating margin 15.9%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 63 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 3% below its 52-week high and 80% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at 12%, CART screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$43.02Fair Value $66.33Bull$86.23
Price $59.22 · Upside +12.0%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then ($1.62 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
In the last 6 months, 6 officers or directors sold shares worth $28.0M and none bought.
SaleChris RogersPresident and CEO, Director5× since Jun 1, 2026: 69,157 shares, avg. $54.14$3.7MOct 26, 202610b5-1 plan
SaleEmily ReuterCHIEF FINANCIAL OFFICER2× since Aug 13, 2026: 75,000 shares, avg. $53.34$4.0MOct 23, 202610b5-1 plan
SaleMorgan FongChief Legal Officer8× since Nov 19, 2025: 223,504 shares, avg. $40.99$9.2MOct 22, 202610b5-1 plan
SaleLisa Blackwood-KapralChief Accounting Officer6× since Mar 16, 2026: 30,846 shares, avg. $42.19$1.3MOct 15, 202610b5-1 plan
SaleMary Beth LaughtonDirector2× since Nov 21, 2025: 14,292 shares, avg. $47.60$680,338Aug 27, 2026
SaleRavi GuptaDirector2× since Jun 2, 2026: 331,000 shares, avg. $45.63$15.1MAug 19, 2026
SaleLily SarafanDirector3,500 shares at $36.53$127,855Feb 25, 2026
SaleFidji SimoDirector4,065 shares at $39.91$162,234Nov 12, 202510b5-1 plan
Plus 21 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.100/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+10.8%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+13.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+20.4%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 7 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+117.1%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 3 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 3 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: adjusted.
+98.7%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+98.7%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−5% → 13%
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+2.8%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+10.0%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +0.5% a year for the price and +7.4% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (99 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Neutral
Recent news coverage is roughly neutral, about typical for how stocks are covered.
AI conclusion: Solid margins and cash flow stand as the main strength, while limited public signals on qualitative moat factors and industry competition that could pressure margins represent the key weakness.
Main risk: Agentic AI tools might let users order groceries directly via retailer websites or other agents, reducing reliance on Instacart's marketplace and lowering transaction volumes.
Bull case: Instacart could deepen integrations with leading AI agents and its retailer network to become the preferred fulfillment layer, capturing more volume even as conversational ordering grows.
Bear case: If agentic AI enables seamless direct ordering from grocers or if Walmart and Amazon dominate with integrated services, Instacart's core marketplace role could shrink substantially over time.
Instacart is winding down its Caper Cart operations by mid-2027 and redirecting resources to core priorities after recording sizable restructuring charges. This step comes amid ongoing sale discussions with DoorDash that could value the company near 17 billion dollars. Does the refocus strengthen its standalone position in grocery delivery technology or mainly increase its attractiveness to a buyer?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Internet Retail · 98 stocks
Beats the industry median on 7/13 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score80 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+12.0% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)15.6% · Above median
Return on assets12.1% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months)11.7% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months)15.9% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)16.6% · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Internet Retail median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Maplebear Inc. Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/CART
Frequently asked questions
Is Maplebear Inc. (CART) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 5, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $66.33 versus a price of $59.22, about +12% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of CART?
Our model-based fair value for Maplebear Inc. is $66.33 (as of Nov 5, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $59.22.
What is the quality score of CART?
Maplebear Inc. has a Quality Score of 80/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Maplebear Inc. (CART)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $66.33 (as of Nov 5, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario $43.02, optimistic scenario $86.23. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Maplebear Inc. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $66.33, about +12% upside versus a price of $59.22 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $43.02, optimistic scenario $86.23. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Maplebear Inc. (CART)?
Maplebear Inc. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $4.1B (latest available figure, as of Nov 5, 2026).
What growth is priced into Maplebear Inc. (CART)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Maplebear Inc. would have to grow free cash flow by +2.8 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.9 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +20.4 % per year. As of Nov 5, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of CART use?
Our models discount Maplebear Inc. at 8.9 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.87, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Maplebear Inc. that is +2.8 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.9 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Maplebear Inc. (CART) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Maplebear Inc. grew +20.4 % a year. The price currently implies +2.8 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Maplebear Inc. (CART) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +3.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Maplebear Inc. (+2.8 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Maplebear Inc. (CART)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 6.18 %: that much free cash flow Maplebear Inc. produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.9 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Maplebear Inc. (CART)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Maplebear Inc. it is $66.33 per share (as of Nov 5, 2026), against a price of $59.22. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Maplebear Inc. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 5, 2026, CART trades below its calculated fair value: price $59.22, fair value $66.33, a gap of about +12% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of CART?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($59.22); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($66.33). For Maplebear Inc. the two are $7.11 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Maplebear Inc. worth?
The market values Maplebear Inc. at about $14.7B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 5, 2026). Per share that is $59.22; our models calculate a fair value of $66.33 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about CART?
Our models span a range for Maplebear Inc.: cautious scenario $43.02, base $66.33, optimistic $86.23 per share (as of Nov 5, 2026, price $59.22). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of CART?
Maplebear Inc. trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 31.0 (as of Nov 5, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $66.33 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 2.3, P/B 5.9, P/S 3.6, EV/EBITDA 21.3.
What is the PEG ratio of CART?
The PEG ratio of Maplebear Inc. is 2.28 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 5, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Maplebear Inc. (CART)?
Balance-sheet figures for Maplebear Inc. (as of Nov 5, 2026): return on equity 15.6%. They feed the Quality Score of 80/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is CART from its 52-week high?
Maplebear Inc. trades at $59.22, about 3% below its 52-week high of $60.88 and 80% above the low of $32.93 (as of Nov 4, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $66.33 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Maplebear Inc.?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Amazon.com, Inc, Alibaba Group, PDD Holdings, MercadoLibre, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Maplebear Inc. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 5, 2026: price $59.22, calculated fair value $66.33 (+12%), Quality Score 80/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of CART calculated?
We run Maplebear Inc. through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $66.33, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.5% above its aggregate fair value. Maplebear Inc. currently trades 11% below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Maplebear Inc. (CART)?
The closing price on Nov 4, 2026 was $59.22. Our model-based fair value is $66.33, about +12% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Maplebear Inc. right now?
A fairly wide model range ($43.02 to $86.23) leaves room in how you read the outcome. The price sits in the lower half of our model range, the side with the larger margin of safety. Read the verdict with care: some models are missing inputs, so the estimate scatters more than usual.
Key figures of Maplebear Inc.
How large is the market capitalisation of Maplebear Inc. (CART)?
The market capitalisation of Maplebear Inc. is $14.7B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Maplebear Inc. (CART)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Maplebear Inc. is 3.55 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Maplebear Inc. (CART)?
Earnings per share at Maplebear Inc. are $1.91 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 31.0). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Maplebear Inc. (CART)?
The net margin of Maplebear Inc. is 11.7% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Maplebear Inc. (CART)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Maplebear Inc. is 15.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Maplebear Inc. (CART)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Maplebear Inc. is −4.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Maplebear Inc. (CART)?
The operating margin of Maplebear Inc. is 15.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Maplebear Inc. (CART)?
Revenue at Maplebear Inc. is growing +16.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg +13.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Maplebear Inc. (CART)?
Earnings per share at Maplebear Inc. are growing +16.8% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Maplebear Inc. (CART) hold?
Maplebear Inc. holds more cash than debt, $601M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Nov 5, 2026