Cognex Corporation (CGNX) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 4, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Cognex Corporation stock $38.10, price $53.06, that is 28.2% below the price, quality 77 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 4, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $23.05 – $88.90 · fair‑value band $28.58 – $47.62 · the $53.06 price screens above the $38.10 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. As of Nov 4, 2026.
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Cognex Corporation provides machine vision products that capture and analyze visual information to automate manufacturing and distribution tasks in the United States, Europe, Greater China, and internationally.
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Its machine vision products are used to automate the manufacture and distribution of discrete items, such as mobile phones, automotive components, and e-commerce packages, by locating, identifying, inspecting, and measuring them.
The company offers VisionPro software, a suite of patented vision tools for traditional rule-based tools and deep learning-enabled tools for advanced programming; vision systems that combine smart cameras and software to perform a wide range of tasks, including part location, identification, measurement, assembly verification, and robotic guidance; OneVision, a cloud-based platform designed to transform how manufacturers build, train, and scale AI-powered vision applications; In-Sight product line of vision systems and sensors; QuickBuild, which allows customers to build vision applications with a graphical and flowchart-based programming interface; DataMan, an image-based barcode reader for fixed-mount and handheld models, as well as barcode verifiers; and vision accessories, such as industrial cameras, lenses, lighting, vision controllers, frame grabbers, and I/O cards.
It sells its products to the automotive, logistics, packaging, consumer electronics, medical-related, semiconductor, and consumer products industries. The company was incorporated in 1981 and is headquartered in Natick, Massachusetts.
Stock analysis
Cognex Corporation (CGNX) currently trades at $53.06, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $38.10, 28% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $22.82 per share, and 0 of the 26 models we run sit above the $53.06 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $4.19, and 26 of the 26 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $28.58 (bear) to $47.62 (bull), the price of $53.06 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 77/100 (high quality), in the Technology sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Cognex Corporation reported revenue of $994M in FY2025 versus $1.0B in FY2021, a compound −1.0%/yr. Reported net income was $114M in FY2025, compounding −20.0%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $9.8B Mid · P/E ratio 51.0 · P/S ratio 8.97 · EPS (TTM) $1.04 · Dividend yield 0.6% · Net margin 16.1% · Return on equity 11.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) 9.7%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 66 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The last reported earnings sit well below what analysts expect (earnings in transition, for example after write-downs or an earnings dip); whether the stock is cheap or expensive hinges on the expected recovery actually arriving. Read the fair value with that caveat.
The share trades about 27% below its 52-week high and 53% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at −46% fair-value upside, at −28%, CGNX screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$28.58Fair Value $38.10Bull$47.62
Price $53.06 · Downside -28.2%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.5968 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
In the last 6 months, 4 officers or directors sold shares worth $16.6M and none bought.
SaleMatthew MoschnerCEO & President, Director24,962 shares at $64.01$1.6MAug 11, 202610b5-1 plan
SaleDarren Marc LongVice President20,252 shares at $66.34$1.3MMay 27, 2026
SaleLaura Ann MacdonaldVP and PAO2× since Feb 12, 2026: 154,603 shares, avg. $65.54$10.1MMay 12, 2026
SaleMark FennellChief Legal Officer &Secretary64,873 shares at $67.05$4.3MMay 11, 2026
SaleDianne M ParrotteDirector44,000 shares at $54.00$2.4MMar 2, 2026
SaleCarl GerstEVP, Global Sales and Products14,336 shares at $55.95$802,041Feb 23, 202610b5-1 plan
SaleAngelos PapadimitriouDirector4,150 shares at $55.58$230,657Feb 23, 2026
SaleJoerg KuechenHead of Corporate M&A61,900 shares at $56.03$3.5MFeb 20, 2026
SaleRobert WillettDirector2× since Feb 12, 2026: 179,200 shares, avg. $58.40$10.5MFeb 13, 202610b5-1 plan
Plus 6 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.72/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+8.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−0.4%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.2%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +8.2% a year
Revenue growth 36 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+12.2%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: adjusted.
−2.9%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−3.5%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.6%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−10.3% vs −2.0%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.21% → 16%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+24.2%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+10.5%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +21.4% a year for the price and +7.9% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (99 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Hype
Recent news coverage is unusually upbeat, far more positive than stocks are typically covered.
AI conclusion: Solid margins represent the main strength while thin public signals and low ROE limit any claim to proven durability.
Main risk: General-purpose AI models or open-source libraries could reach factory-grade reliability and erode Cognex's proprietary deep-learning differentiation, compressing software premiums and margins.
Bull case: Cognex could integrate open AI frameworks into its OneVision platform and edge systems to lower customer switching costs while expanding its semiconductor wafer-reader offerings amid sustained AI-driven chip demand.
Bear case: Open AI commoditization combined with Keyence share gains and China trade barriers could shrink Cognex's addressable premium segment, force sustained price cuts and limit growth outside semiconductors.
Cognex is launching an AI-powered wafer reader to help semiconductor makers track parts more reliably amid rising demand for advanced chips. The system tackles degraded markings and supports easy upgrades from older models without big process changes. Our models see the stock as overvalued. Will the semiconductor opportunity drive lasting margin gains or stay limited by slower industrial spending elsewhere?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Scientific & Technical Instruments · 160 stocks
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Cognex Corporation Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/CGNX
Frequently asked questions
Is Cognex Corporation (CGNX) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 4, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $38.10 versus a price of $53.06, about 28% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of CGNX?
Our model-based fair value for Cognex Corporation is $38.10 (as of Nov 4, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $53.06.
What is the quality score of CGNX?
Cognex Corporation has a Quality Score of 77/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Cognex Corporation (CGNX)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $38.10 (as of Nov 4, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario $28.58, optimistic scenario $47.62. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Cognex Corporation stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $38.10, about 28% lower versus a price of $53.06 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $28.58, optimistic scenario $47.62. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Cognex Corporation (CGNX)?
Cognex Corporation reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $1.1B (latest available figure, as of Nov 4, 2026).
Does Cognex Corporation pay a dividend?
Cognex Corporation currently shows a dividend yield of 0.63% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 4, 2026).
What growth is priced into Cognex Corporation (CGNX)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Cognex Corporation would have to grow free cash flow by +24.2 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.9 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +4.2 % per year. As of Nov 4, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of CGNX use?
Our models discount Cognex Corporation at 10.9 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 1.48, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Cognex Corporation that is +24.2 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.9 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Cognex Corporation (CGNX) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Cognex Corporation grew +4.2 % a year. The price currently implies +24.2 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Cognex Corporation (CGNX) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +11.3 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Cognex Corporation (+24.2 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Cognex Corporation (CGNX)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 2.63 %: that much free cash flow Cognex Corporation produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.9 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Cognex Corporation (CGNX)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Cognex Corporation it is $38.10 per share (as of Nov 4, 2026), against a price of $53.06. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Cognex Corporation stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 4, 2026, CGNX trades above its calculated fair value: price $53.06, fair value $38.10, a gap of about −28% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of CGNX?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($53.06); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($38.10). For Cognex Corporation the two are $14.96 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Cognex Corporation worth?
The market values Cognex Corporation at about $9.8B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 4, 2026). Per share that is $53.06; our models calculate a fair value of $38.10 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about CGNX?
Our models span a range for Cognex Corporation: cautious scenario $28.58, base $38.10, optimistic $47.62 per share (as of Nov 4, 2026, price $53.06). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of CGNX?
Cognex Corporation trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 51.0 (as of Nov 4, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $38.10 is built from several models across several years. Excluding one-off items of fiscal year 2025 it is 59.0 (reported for FY2025: 78.0). Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 9 fiscal years (2017 to 2025), reported earnings, 4 of the years ex one-offs: 50.0. Other multiples: PEG 2.7, P/B 6.6, P/S 9.0, EV/EBITDA 35.5.
What is the PEG ratio of CGNX?
The PEG ratio of Cognex Corporation is 2.71 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 4, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Cognex Corporation (CGNX)?
Balance-sheet figures for Cognex Corporation (as of Nov 4, 2026): return on equity 11.2%. They feed the Quality Score of 77/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is CGNX from its 52-week high?
Cognex Corporation trades at $53.06, about 27% below its 52-week high of $72.42 and 53% above the low of $34.70 (as of Nov 4, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $38.10 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Cognex Corporation?
From the same area (Technology) we also value Keysight Technologies, Inc, Garmin Ltd, Coherent Corp, Teledyne Technologies Incorporated, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Cognex Corporation stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 4, 2026: price $53.06, calculated fair value $38.10 (−28%), Quality Score 77/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of CGNX calculated?
We run Cognex Corporation through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $38.10, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.5% above its aggregate fair value. Cognex Corporation itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Cognex Corporation (CGNX)?
The closing price on Nov 4, 2026 was $53.06. Our model-based fair value is $38.10, about 28% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Cognex Corporation right now?
A high-quality business (quality 77/100), yet the market already pays well above fair value. Quality at a full price, with little margin of safety. The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($47.62). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
Where does the earnings growth of Cognex Corporation (CGNX) come from?
Earnings per share at Cognex Corporation grew −3.1 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +8.0 %, EBIT margin −7.0 %, tax rate −1.9 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −1.5 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Cognex Corporation
How large is the market capitalisation of Cognex Corporation (CGNX)?
The market capitalisation of Cognex Corporation is $9.8B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Cognex Corporation (CGNX)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Cognex Corporation is 8.97 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Cognex Corporation (CGNX)?
Earnings per share at Cognex Corporation are $1.04 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 51.0). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Cognex Corporation (CGNX)?
The dividend yield of Cognex Corporation is 0.6% (payout 24.3%, on adjusted earnings, reported 32.2%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Cognex Corporation (CGNX)?
The net margin of Cognex Corporation is 16.1% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Cognex Corporation (CGNX)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Cognex Corporation is 11.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Cognex Corporation (CGNX)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Cognex Corporation is 9.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Cognex Corporation (CGNX)?
The operating margin of Cognex Corporation is 29.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Cognex Corporation (CGNX)?
Revenue at Cognex Corporation is growing +16.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg −0.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Cognex Corporation (CGNX)?
Earnings per share at Cognex Corporation are growing +79.2% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Cognex Corporation (CGNX) hold?
Cognex Corporation holds more cash than debt, $186M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Broad data
Nov 4, 2026