Chord Energy Corp (CHRD) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Chord Energy Corp stock $207, price $136, upside +51.3%, quality 30 out of 100. Rating: strongly undervalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 8, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $50.92 – $167.63 · fair‑value band $198.55 – $220.29 · the $136.49 price screens below the $206.53 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 3 fiscal years are left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. As of Nov 8, 2026.
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Chord Energy Corporation operates as an independent exploration and production company in the United States. The company engages in the acquisition, exploration, development and production of crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids in the Williston Basin.
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It sells its products to refiners, marketers, and other purchasers that have access to pipeline and rail facilities. The company was formerly known as Oasis Petroleum Inc. and changed its name to Chord Energy Corporation in July 2022.
Chord Energy Corporation was founded in 2007 and is headquartered in Houston, Texas.
Stock analysis
Chord Energy Corp (CHRD) currently trades at $136.49, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $206.53, implying the stock looks roughly 34% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of $272.97 per share, and 7 of the 24 models we run sit above the $136.49 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at $20.77, and 17 of the 24 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $198.55 (bear) to $220.29 (bull), the price of $136.49 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 30/100 (below-average quality), in the Energy sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Chord Energy Corp reported revenue of $4.9B in FY2025 versus $1.6B in FY2021, a compound +32.6%/yr. Reported net income was $44.5M in FY2025, compounding −38.9%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $7.7B Mid · P/E ratio 8.6 · P/S ratio 1.22 · EPS (TTM) $15.93 · Dividend yield 3.8% · Net margin 14.3% · Return on equity 11.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) 15.8% (5-year average).
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 48 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 14% below its 52-week high and 65% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at 51%, CHRD screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$198.55Fair Value $206.53Bull$220.29
Price $136.49 · Upside +51.3%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then ($9.17 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
Residual Income$93.34$97.09$103.5676
FCF DCF$219.30$368.04$853.9874
Growth DCF$205.29$419.14$869.2873
All 26 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF$219.30$368.04$853.9874
Owner Earnings$37.72$120.52$301.8967
5Y Revenue Exit$67.50$107.36$188.5470
5Y EBITDA Exit$147.65$269.49$508.0571
5Y P/E Exit$46.39$80.42$117.6970
10Y Revenue Exit$110.00$207.46$249.5167
10Y EBITDA Exit$171.39$384.01$745.8264
10Y P/E Exit$95.85$160.96$246.6463
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd$5.63$39.27$55.1163
Lynch FV$14.54$20.77$27.0061
PEG = 1.0$14.54$20.77$27.0057
EPVn/an/a$0.570068
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM$56.85$123.94$208.1665
DDM Multi-Stage$56.85$101.62$129.2066
Multiples
P/E Multiple$8.69$11.59$14.4963
P/S Multiple$10.56$14.08$17.6058
P/B Multiple$85.67$114.22$142.7855
EV/EBIT$3.23$12.47$21.7159
EV/EBITDA$115.36$161.97$208.5967
EV/Revenue$9.14$23.56$37.9750
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)$70.17$94.03$140.3454
Growth DCF
Growth DCF$205.29$419.14$869.2873
Rev-Margin DCF$67.57$126.79$236.4769
Economic Profit
Residual Income$93.34$97.09$103.5676
ROIC Compoundern/an/a$0.570068
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E$16.21$23.16$30.1167
The fair value above starts from this blend and is adjusted for a cyclical trough year.
Plus 3 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.62/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
−7.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+10.2%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+35.1%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +20.0% a year
Revenue growth 25 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+22.0%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: adjusted.
+4.5%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+0.7%
Dividend (yield on the price)3.8%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−45.1% vs −17.2%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−450% → 4%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Price in line with expectations
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and about what analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−1.2%
The company could shrink this much every year for the next five years and today's price would still be justified.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
−1.9%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −3.5% a year for the price and −4.2% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (100 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Hype
Recent news coverage is unusually upbeat, far more positive than stocks are typically covered.
AI conclusion: Chord benefits from a sharpened Williston Basin focus and strong balance sheet yet faces limited durable advantage with persistently thin margins and low returns on capital.
Main risk: Stricter EPA rules on associated gas flaring in the Williston Basin could force higher compliance costs or production cuts for Chord as the largest operator there.
Bull case: Chord could leverage its efficiency gains and low breakeven costs in the Williston Basin to maintain output and margins even if environmental rules tighten or oil demand softens gradually.
Bear case: Tighter flaring regulations combined with faster energy transition could force production cuts and erode margins in Chord's concentrated Williston operations over the coming years.
Chord has divested its non-operated Marcellus gas position to focus solely on the Williston Basin. This sharpens operational focus and further bolsters an already strong balance sheet, yet it also increases exposure to crude oil price movements. Will the efficiency gains from its 4-mile lateral program deliver more value creation than the added oil-price volatility subtracts?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Oil & Gas E&P · 239 stocks
Beats the industry median on 11/14 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score30 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside+51.3% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)11.0% · Above median
Return on assets0.3% · Below median
Net margin (12 months)14.3% · Above median
Operating margin (12 months)16.3% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)29.0% · Above median
Dividend yield (12 months)3.8% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.18× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Oil & Gas E&P median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)8.6× · Cheaper than median
P/B0.96× · Cheaper than median
P/S (12 months)1.22× · Cheapest 25%
Price / free cash flow (fiscal year)11.2× · Cheaper than median
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Chord Energy Corp Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/CHRD
Frequently asked questions
Is Chord Energy Corp (CHRD) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 8, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $206.53 versus a price of $136.49, about +51% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of CHRD?
Our model-based fair value for Chord Energy Corp is $206.53 (as of Nov 8, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $136.49.
What is the quality score of CHRD?
Chord Energy Corp has a Quality Score of 30/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Chord Energy Corp (CHRD)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $206.53 (as of Nov 8, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario $198.55, optimistic scenario $220.29. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Chord Energy Corp stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $206.53, about +51% upside versus a price of $136.49 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $198.55, optimistic scenario $220.29. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Chord Energy Corp (CHRD)?
Chord Energy Corp reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $6.3B (latest available figure, as of Nov 8, 2026).
Does Chord Energy Corp pay a dividend?
Chord Energy Corp currently shows a dividend yield of 3.81% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 8, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Chord Energy Corp (CHRD) and when is the ex-dividend date?
Chord Energy Corp pays a dividend of $5.20 per share a year, a dividend yield of 3.8%. The last ex-dividend date was Aug 20, 2026. A dividend has been paid every year since at least 2021. The payout ratio is 2.7% of earnings (on adjusted earnings, reported 32.6%). Free cash flow covers the dividend 2.48 times. Our assessment: Well covered. A low payout and the dividend is fully funded by free cash flow, a comfortable, sustainable dividend.
What growth is priced into Chord Energy Corp (CHRD)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Chord Energy Corp would have to grow free cash flow by -1.2 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.5 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +35.1 % per year. As of Nov 8, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of CHRD use?
Our models discount Chord Energy Corp at 8.5 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.36, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Chord Energy Corp that is -1.2 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (8.5 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Chord Energy Corp (CHRD) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Chord Energy Corp grew +35.1 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of -1.2 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Chord Energy Corp (CHRD) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +14.1 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Chord Energy Corp (-1.2 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Chord Energy Corp (CHRD)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 8.97 %: that much free cash flow Chord Energy Corp produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.5 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Chord Energy Corp (CHRD)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Chord Energy Corp it is $206.53 per share (as of Nov 8, 2026), against a price of $136.49. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models in 8 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is Chord Energy Corp stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 8, 2026, CHRD trades below its calculated fair value: price $136.49, fair value $206.53, a gap of about +51% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of CHRD?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($136.49); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($206.53). For Chord Energy Corp the two are $70.04 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Chord Energy Corp worth?
The market values Chord Energy Corp at about $7.7B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 8, 2026). Per share that is $136.49; our models calculate a fair value of $206.53 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about CHRD?
Our models span a range for Chord Energy Corp: cautious scenario $198.55, base $206.53, optimistic $220.29 per share (as of Nov 8, 2026, price $136.49). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of CHRD?
Chord Energy Corp trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 8.6 (as of Nov 8, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $206.53 is built from several models across several years. Excluding one-off items of fiscal year 2025 it is 14.3 (reported for FY2025: 174.5). Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 6 fiscal years (2017 to 2025), reported earnings, 4 of the years ex one-offs: 8.5. Other multiples: P/B 1.0, P/S 1.2, EV/EBITDA 3.3.
How solid is the balance sheet of Chord Energy Corp (CHRD)?
Balance-sheet figures for Chord Energy Corp (as of Nov 8, 2026): return on equity 11.0%, debt of 0.18 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 30/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is CHRD from its 52-week high?
Chord Energy Corp trades at $136.49, about 14% below its 52-week high of $158.13 and 65% above the low of $82.60 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $206.53 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Chord Energy Corp?
From the same area (Energy) we also value ConocoPhillips explores for,, CNOOC Limited, Canadian Natural Resources Limited, EOG Resources, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Chord Energy Corp stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 8, 2026: price $136.49, calculated fair value $206.53 (+51%), Quality Score 30/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of CHRD calculated?
We run Chord Energy Corp through 26 models from 8 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of $206.53 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0% above its aggregate fair value. Chord Energy Corp currently trades 34% below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Chord Energy Corp (CHRD)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was $136.49. Our model-based fair value is $206.53, about +51% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Chord Energy Corp right now?
The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (30/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain. The price is below even our cautious bear case ($198.55). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The models converge in a tight band ($198.55 to $220.29), unusually little disagreement for a valuation.
Key figures of Chord Energy Corp
How large is the market capitalisation of Chord Energy Corp (CHRD)?
The market capitalisation of Chord Energy Corp is $7.7B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Chord Energy Corp (CHRD)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Chord Energy Corp is 1.22 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Chord Energy Corp (CHRD)?
Earnings per share at Chord Energy Corp are $15.93 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 8.6). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Chord Energy Corp (CHRD)?
The dividend yield of Chord Energy Corp is 3.8% (payout 2.7%, on adjusted earnings, reported 32.6%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Chord Energy Corp (CHRD)?
The net margin of Chord Energy Corp is 14.3% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Chord Energy Corp (CHRD)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Chord Energy Corp is 11.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Chord Energy Corp (CHRD)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Chord Energy Corp is 15.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Chord Energy Corp (CHRD)?
The operating margin of Chord Energy Corp is 16.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Chord Energy Corp (CHRD)?
Revenue at Chord Energy Corp is growing +29.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg +10.2%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Chord Energy Corp (CHRD)?
Earnings per share at Chord Energy Corp are growing +45.6% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Chord Energy Corp (CHRD) carry?
The net debt of Chord Energy Corp is $1.3B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 1.9 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Nov 8, 2026