Chord Energy Corporation (CHRD) Fair Value & Analysis
Energy · US · Market cap $6.6B
Chord Energy Corporation
CHRD · US
Fair value as of: Jul 15, 2026
From 24 valuation models · updated 25 days ago
Share price +7.5% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 83% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($28.72). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Weak quality (18/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
- A fairly wide model range ($15.46 to $28.72) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 15, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $43.26 – $167.63 · fair‑value band $15.46 – $28.72 · the $131.35 price screens above the $22.09 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 15, 2026.
Analysis
Chord Energy Corporation (CHRD) currently trades at $131.35, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $22.09, implying the stock looks roughly 83.2% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 18/100 (below-average quality), in the Energy sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Chord Energy Corporation generated revenue of $5.0B at a net margin of -1.3%. Revenue grew 38.5% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -0.8%. Net debt stands at $1.3B. Fundamentals as of Jul 15, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $15.46 (bear case) to $28.72 (bull case); at $131.35, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 13% below its 52-week high and 61% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at -26% fair-value upside, at -83%, CHRD screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 24 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models ($135.80) versus Multiples ($13.42). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 15, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 27 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 65
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Chord Energy Corporation operates as an independent exploration and production company in the United States. The company engages in the acquisition, exploration, development and production of crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids in the Williston Basin.
Full company description
Chord Energy Corporation operates as an independent exploration and production company in the United States. The company engages in the acquisition, exploration, development and production of crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids in the Williston Basin. It sells its products to refiners, marketers, and other purchasers that have access to pipeline and rail facilities. The company was formerly known as Oasis Petroleum Inc. and changed its name to Chord Energy Corporation in July 2022. Chord Energy Corporation was founded in 2007 and is headquartered in Houston, Texas.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Chord Energy Corporation reported revenue of $4.9B in FY2025 versus $1.6B in FY2021, a compound +32.6%/yr. Reported net income was $44.5M in FY2025, compounding −38.9%/yr from FY2021.
CHRD screens 83% overvalued. Compare with CNOOC Limited →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Chord Energy Corporation (CHRD) Q2 Earnings: How Key Metrics Compare to Wall Street Estimates
- Chord Energy (NASDAQ:CHRD) Surprises With Strong Q2 CY2026
- Chord Energy Corporation (CHRD) Q2 Earnings Lag Estimates
- Chord Energy Reports Second Quarter 2026 Financial and Operating Results, Declares Base Dividend and Updates 2026 Outlook
Peer Group
Oil & Gas E&P · 315 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Oil & Gas E&P median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 40/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Oil & Gas E&P stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 15, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| CNOOC Limited 600938 | ¥28.97 | ¥32.55 | +12% |
| ConocoPhillips explores for, COP | $109.04 | $91.79 | -16% |
| Canadian Natural Resources Limited CNQ | $42.86 | $31.54 | -26% |
| EOG Resources, Inc EOG | $139.89 | $130.19 | -7% |
| Occidental Petroleum Corporation OXY | $54.86 | $30.68 | -44% |
| Diamondback Energy, Inc FANG | $183.39 | $106.12 | -42% |
| Devon Energy Corporation DVN | $43.83 | $27.06 | -38% |
| Woodside Energy Group WDS | A$30.46 | A$20.71 | -32% |
| EQT Corporation EQT | $48.85 | $42.85 | -12% |
| Texas Pacific Land Corporation TPL | $415.70 | $79.20 | -81% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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