Canadian National Railway Co (CNR) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 30, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Canadian National Railway Co stock C$140, price C$173, that is 19.0% below the price, quality 65 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 2, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range C$120.09 – C$183.92 · fair‑value band C$74.05 – C$216.18 · the C$172.81 price screens above the C$139.89 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 2, 2026.
Canadian National Railway Company, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the rail, intermodal, trucking, and related transportation businesses in Canada and the United States.
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The company provides rail services, which include equipment, customs brokerage, transloading and warehousing, business development, dimensional loads, and private railcar storage, less-than-truckload, and mexico services; intermodal services, such as temperature controlled multimodal, mobile transport trays, port partnerships, transloading and distribution, logistics parks, trucking, and supply chain services.
It also offers connecting to rail, short lines, maps and network services. The company serves automotive, coal, fertilizers, temperature controlled cargo, forest products, dimensional, grain, metal and minerals, petroleum and chemicals, consumer goods, and third party logistics applications.
Canadian National Railway Company was incorporated in 1919 and is headquartered in Montreal, Canada.
Stock analysis
Canadian National Railway Co (CNR) currently trades at C$172.81, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is C$139.89, 19.0% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
How firm this estimate is: it rests on 25 models at a data quality of 96/100, which puts the data coverage at low.
Scenario range: C$74.05 (bear) to C$216.18 (bull), the price of C$172.81 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 65/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Canadian National Railway Co reported revenue of C$17.3B in FY2025 versus C$14.5B in FY2021, a compound +4.6%/yr. Reported net income was C$4.7B in FY2025, compounding −0.9%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap C$105B (≈ $75.1B) · P/E ratio 22.2 · P/S ratio 5.97 · EPS (TTM) C$7.79 · Dividend yield 2.1% · Net margin 26.9% · Return on equity 22.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) 12.0%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 58 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 6% below its 52-week high and 37% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −4% fair-value upside, at −19%, CNR screens richer than that median.
Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality65/100
It rates the business: profits, how they develop, real cash, balance sheet, investing and share count.
Profitability54
How much profit the company makes from its sales and capital
Quality Growth38
Are margins and returns getting better?
Cashflow68
Do the profits arrive as real cash?
Financial strength48
Debt, balance sheet and risk of trouble
Investment58
Does it invest with discipline instead of growing at any price?
Low Volatility74
How calm the share price moves, does not count
Price momentum57
Price momentum of the last 3 to 12 months, does not count
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.62/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+1.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+0.4%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.6%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +3.2% a year
Revenue growth 30 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.9%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+7.4%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+5.3%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.1%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.5.3% vs 5.6%, steady
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.35% → 38%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+19.0%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+4.6%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (Canada: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 2.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +16.5% a year for the price and +2.4% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (96 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
Compare Canadian National Railway Co with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Railroads · 109 stocks
Beats the industry median on 0/2 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Growth and dividend
Dividend yield (12 months)2.1% · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Railroads median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)22.2× · Pricier than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 12
FUTURE (revenue growth)18· sector 60
PAST (return on equity)11· sector 27
HEALTH (low debt)96· sector 92
DIVIDEND (yield)9· sector 61
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Is Canadian National Railway Co (CNR) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 2, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of C$139.89 versus a price of C$172.81, about 19% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of CNR?
Our model-based fair value for Canadian National Railway Co is C$139.89 (as of Nov 2, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: C$172.81.
What is the quality score of CNR?
Canadian National Railway Co has a Quality Score of 65/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Canadian National Railway Co (CNR)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of C$139.89 (as of Nov 2, 2026) from 25 valuation models. Cautious scenario C$74.05, optimistic scenario C$216.18. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Canadian National Railway Co stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at C$139.89, about 19% lower versus a price of C$172.81 (overvalued). Cautious scenario C$74.05, optimistic scenario C$216.18. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Canadian National Railway Co (CNR)?
Canadian National Railway Co reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about C$17.8B (latest available figure, as of Nov 2, 2026).
Does Canadian National Railway Co pay a dividend?
Canadian National Railway Co currently shows a dividend yield of 2.09% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 2, 2026).
What growth is priced into Canadian National Railway Co (CNR)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Canadian National Railway Co would have to grow free cash flow by +19.0 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.0 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +4.6 % per year. As of Nov 2, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of CNR use?
Our models discount Canadian National Railway Co at 9.0 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.99, country premium for Canada. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Canadian National Railway Co that is +19.0 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.0 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Canadian National Railway Co (CNR) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Canadian National Railway Co grew +4.6 % a year. The price currently implies +19.0 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Canadian National Railway Co (CNR) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +7.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Canadian National Railway Co (+19.0 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Canadian National Railway Co (CNR)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 3.23 %: that much free cash flow Canadian National Railway Co produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.0 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Canadian National Railway Co (CNR)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Canadian National Railway Co it is C$139.89 per share (as of Nov 2, 2026), against a price of C$172.81. It is the blended result of 25 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Canadian National Railway Co stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 2, 2026, CNR trades above its calculated fair value: price C$172.81, fair value C$139.89, a gap of about −19% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of CNR?
No. The price is what the market pays today (C$172.81); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (C$139.89). For Canadian National Railway Co the two are C$32.92 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Canadian National Railway Co worth?
The market values Canadian National Railway Co at about C$105B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 2, 2026). Per share that is C$172.81; our models calculate a fair value of C$139.89 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about CNR?
Our models span a range for Canadian National Railway Co: cautious scenario C$74.05, base C$139.89, optimistic C$216.18 per share (as of Nov 2, 2026, price C$172.81). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of CNR?
Canadian National Railway Co trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 22.2 (as of Nov 2, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of C$139.89 is built from several models across several years.
How far is CNR from its 52-week high?
Canadian National Railway Co trades at C$172.81, about 6% below its 52-week high of C$183.92 and 37% above the low of C$125.77 (as of Oct 30, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of C$139.89 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Canadian National Railway Co?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Union Pacific Corporation, CSX Corporation, Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited, Norfolk Southern Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Canadian National Railway Co stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 2, 2026: price C$172.81, calculated fair value C$139.89 (−19%), Quality Score 65/100, from 25 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of CNR calculated?
We run Canadian National Railway Co through 25 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of C$139.89, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.2 % above its aggregate fair value. Canadian National Railway Co itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Canadian National Railway Co (CNR)?
The closing price on Oct 30, 2026 was C$172.81. Our model-based fair value is C$139.89, about 19% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Canadian National Railway Co right now?
The model range is unusually wide (C$74.05 to C$216.18). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (65/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual.
Where does the earnings growth of Canadian National Railway Co (CNR) come from?
Earnings per share at Canadian National Railway Co grew +6.7 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +6.4 %, EBIT margin −0.7 %, tax rate +0.9 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +0.1 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Canadian National Railway Co
How large is the market capitalisation of Canadian National Railway Co (CNR)?
The market capitalisation of Canadian National Railway Co is C$105B (≈ $75.1B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Canadian National Railway Co (CNR)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Canadian National Railway Co is 5.97 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Canadian National Railway Co (CNR)?
Earnings per share at Canadian National Railway Co are C$7.79 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 22.2). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Canadian National Railway Co (CNR)?
The dividend yield of Canadian National Railway Co is 2.1% (payout 46.3%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Canadian National Railway Co (CNR)?
The net margin of Canadian National Railway Co is 26.9% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Canadian National Railway Co (CNR)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Canadian National Railway Co is 22.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Canadian National Railway Co (CNR)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Canadian National Railway Co is 12.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Canadian National Railway Co (CNR)?
The operating margin of Canadian National Railway Co is 40.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Canadian National Railway Co (CNR)?
Revenue at Canadian National Railway Co is growing +11.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg +0.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Canadian National Railway Co (CNR)?
Earnings per share at Canadian National Railway Co are growing +10.2% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Canadian National Railway Co (CNR) carry?
The net debt of Canadian National Railway Co is C$21.5B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 6.3 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Thin data
Nov 2, 2026