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CNR.TO (CNR) Fair Value & Analysis

Industrials · CA · Market cap C$109B (≈ $79.0B) · ISIN CA1363751027

What is CNR.TO really worth?

CT CNR.TO CNR · TO
PriceC$170.58
Fair ValueC$92.68
Upside−45.7%
Quality65/100

A solid business, but trading 84% above our fair value of C$92.68.

As of Aug 30, 2026, the fair value of CNR.TO is C$92.68 per share against a price of C$170.58, so the fair value sits 46% below the price. A model estimate blended from multiple valuation models, recalculated regularly.

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Strengths

Highly profitable · 27.2% net margin
Moderate debt · generates free cash flow
Wide moat 82/100

Risks

!Expensive Growth (revenue 5y +4.6 %/yr)
!Trails peers (5/14)
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
!The models disagree: range C$49.53 to C$177.12
!Weak on dividend: 8 out of 100

For context

·2.10% dividend yield
Evidence: Low Range C$49.53 – C$177.12

Fair value as of: Aug 30, 2026

From 25 valuation models · updated 7 days ago

Share price −4.5% over the past month.

What runs behind every stock

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

What matters now

  • The model range is unusually wide (C$49.53 to C$177.12). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
  • The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
  • Solid but not exceptional quality (65/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

C$183.92 C$116.42 Fair Value C$92.68 Jun 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 30, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range C$116.42 – C$183.92 · fair‑value band C$49.53 – C$177.12 · the C$170.58 price screens above the C$92.68 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 30, 2026.

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Analysis

CNR.TO (CNR) currently trades at C$170.58, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is C$92.68, implying the stock looks roughly 84.1% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 65/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector. Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of C$136.24 per share, and 0 of the 25 models we run sit above the C$170.58 price. Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at C$23.82, and 25 of the 25 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.

Over the trailing twelve months, CNR.TO generated revenue of C$17.3B at a net margin of 27.2%. Revenue declined 0.5% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 21.9%. Net debt stands at C$21.5B. Fundamentals as of Aug 30, 2026

Our scenario range runs from C$49.53 (bear case) to C$177.12 (bull case); at C$170.58, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades near its 52-week high and 37% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −44% fair-value upside, at −46%, CNR screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly C$2.74 per share, which is 3.0 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

Model Bear Bear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull Bull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
FCF DCF C$27.88 C$56.91 C$99.20 77
Growth DCF C$29.43 C$56.00 C$92.82 76
EPV C$46.31 C$59.51 C$71.05 74
All 25 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF C$27.88 C$56.91 C$99.20 77
Owner Earnings C$20.88 C$46.56 C$83.97 73
5Y Revenue Exit C$10.64 C$30.28 C$54.29 68
5Y EBITDA Exit C$66.25 C$130.75 C$204.14 73
5Y P/E Exit C$58.08 C$115.99 C$174.80 69
10Y Revenue Exit C$15.42 C$34.37 C$57.75 64
10Y EBITDA Exit C$51.44 C$102.85 C$168.53 66
10Y P/E Exit C$46.30 C$92.79 C$146.84 62
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd C$52.91 C$136.64 C$178.01 65
PEG = 1.0 C$25.76 C$36.80 C$47.85 57
EPV C$46.31 C$59.51 C$71.05 74
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM C$33.42 C$66.07 C$110.24 66
DDM Multi-Stage C$33.42 C$51.21 C$70.35 66
Multiples
P/E Multiple C$122.55 C$163.40 C$204.25 63
P/S Multiple C$42.79 C$57.05 C$71.32 58
P/B Multiple C$99.21 C$132.28 C$165.35 55
EV/EBIT C$105.58 C$151.73 C$197.88 65
EV/EBITDA C$104.16 C$149.83 C$195.51 67
EV/Revenue C$3.08 C$18.48 C$33.88 48
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) C$17.78 C$23.82 C$35.56 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF C$29.43 C$56.00 C$92.82 76
Rev-Margin DCF C$10.64 C$31.04 C$53.63 69
Economic Profit
Residual Income C$49.58 C$63.45 C$228.26 64
ROIC Compounder C$48.23 C$67.90 C$91.15 71
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E C$95.37 C$136.24 C$177.12 67

Widest divergence: Growth Earnings (C$136.24) versus Asset-Based (C$23.82). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (77).

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Key figures & financial health

P/E ratio 22.4
P/S ratio 6.12 P/E × margin
EPS (TTM) C$7.60 price ÷ EPS = P/E 22.4
Dividend yield 2.1% payout 47.1%
Net margin 27.3% FY2025
Return on equity 21.9% TTM
More key figures
Profitability
Return on assets (EBIT) 12.0% avg 5y
Operating margin 38.4% TTM
Growth
Revenue (TTM) C$17.3B TTM
Revenue growth (YoY) −0.5% 3y avg +0.4%
EPS growth (YoY) +1.1%
Balance sheet & cash flow
Free cash flow C$3.4B FY2025
Net debt C$21.5B FY2025 · ≈ 6.3 yrs of FCF

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 30, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 65/100

Of which business quality 60 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 69

Profitability 54
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 38
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 68
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 49
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 58
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 74
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 62
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 74
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 99
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.

About the company

Canadian National Railway Company, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the rail, intermodal, trucking, and related transportation businesses in Canada and the United States.

Full company description

Canadian National Railway Company, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the rail, intermodal, trucking, and related transportation businesses in Canada and the United States. The company provides rail services, which include equipment, customs brokerage, transloading and warehousing, business development, dimensional loads, and private railcar storage, less-than-truckload, and mexico services; intermodal services, such as temperature controlled multimodal, mobile transport trays, port partnerships, transloading and distribution, logistics parks, trucking, and supply chain services. It also offers connecting to rail, short lines, maps and network services. The company serves automotive, coal, fertilizers, temperature controlled cargo, forest products, dimensional, grain, metal and minerals, petroleum and chemicals, consumer goods, and third party logistics applications. Canadian National Railway Company was incorporated in 1919 and is headquartered in Montreal, Canada.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

CNR.TO reported revenue of C$17.3B in FY2025 versus C$14.5B in FY2021, a compound +4.6%/yr. Reported net income was C$4.7B in FY2025, compounding −0.9%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 62/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
C$17.3B
Latest YoY
+1.5%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (3Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+0.4%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (5Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+4.6%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (30Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+4.9%
Value creation/yr (5Y) Earnings growth per share (CAGR 5 years) plus dividend yield: value created per share and year.
+7.4% · in CAD
Earnings growth per share plus dividend yield: the value created per share and year.
Earnings growth per share+5.3%
Dividend yield2.1%
Trend Two data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.5Y 5.3% vs 10Y 5.6%, steady
Operating margin (EBIT) Operating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.34.6% (2020) → 38.1% (2025) · rising
Worst earnings drop15% (2020) · in CAD
Revenue +4.6%/yr
FY21 C$14.5B
FY22 C$17.1B
FY23 C$16.8B
FY24 C$17.0B
FY25 C$17.3B
Net income −0.9%/yr
FY21 C$4.9B
FY22 C$5.1B
FY23 C$5.6B
FY24 C$4.4B
FY25 C$4.7B
Character of growth · EPS growth decomposed (2014-2025) +6.7 % p.a.
Revenue per share +6.4 %

of which total revenue +3.7 % · buybacks/dilution +2.6 %

EBIT margin −0.7 %
Tax rate +0.9 %
Residual (interest, one-offs) +0.1 %

Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).

CNR screens 84% overvalued. Compare with Union Pacific Corporation →

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "CNR.TO Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/CNR.TO

Peer Group

Railroads · 111 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Dividend yield (TTM) 2.1% · Below median

Valuation Multiples vs Railroads median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 22.4× · Pricier than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE81 · sector 8
FUTURE33 · sector 0
PAST0 · sector 21
HEALTH96 · sector 93
DIVIDEND8 · sector 54

Insider activity: 42/100

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Railroads stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 30, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Union Pacific Corporation UNP $307.41 $141.29 −54%
CSX Corporation CSX $48.99 $12.62 −74%
Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited CP $94.12 $34.33 −64%
Norfolk Southern Corporation NSC $332.96 $114.36 −66%
Canadian National Railway Company CNI $126.01 $90.43 −28%
Westinghouse Air Brake Technologies Corporation WAB $297.57 $144.80 −51%
Beijing-Shanghai High-Speed Railway Co 601816 ¥4.87 ¥5.65 +16%
MTR Corporation 0066 HK$32.04 HK$17.85 −44%
CRRC Corporation 601766 ¥5.98 ¥9.53 +59%
Daqin Railway Co 601006 ¥4.72 ¥6.22 +32%

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Frequently asked questions

Is CNR.TO (CNR) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Aug 30, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of C$92.68 versus a price of C$170.58, about −46% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of CNR?
Our model-based fair value for CNR.TO is C$92.68 (as of Aug 30, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: C$170.58.
What is the quality score of CNR?
CNR.TO has a Quality Score of 65/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for CNR.TO (CNR)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of C$92.68 (as of Aug 30, 2026) from 25 valuation models. Cautious scenario C$49.53, optimistic scenario C$177.12. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the CNR.TO stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at C$92.68, about −46% upside versus a price of C$170.58 (overvalued). Cautious scenario C$49.53, optimistic scenario C$177.12. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of CNR.TO (CNR)?
CNR.TO reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about C$17.3B (latest available figure, as of Aug 30, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of CNR?
The net profit margin of CNR.TO is about 27.2%, meaning it keeps roughly 27.2% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does CNR.TO pay a dividend?
CNR.TO currently shows a dividend yield of about 2.10% relative to its recent price (as of Aug 30, 2026).
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