CNR.TO (CNR) Fair Value & Analysis
Industrials · CA · Market cap C$109B (≈ $79.0B) · ISIN CA1363751027
What is CNR.TO really worth?
A solid business, but trading 84% above our fair value of C$92.68.
As of Aug 30, 2026, the fair value of CNR.TO is C$92.68 per share against a price of C$170.58, so the fair value sits 46% below the price. A model estimate blended from multiple valuation models, recalculated regularly.
Strengths
Risks
For context
Fair value as of: Aug 30, 2026
From 25 valuation models · updated 7 days ago
Share price −4.5% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The model range is unusually wide (C$49.53 to C$177.12). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
- The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (65/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 30, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range C$116.42 – C$183.92 · fair‑value band C$49.53 – C$177.12 · the C$170.58 price screens above the C$92.68 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 30, 2026.
Analysis
CNR.TO (CNR) currently trades at C$170.58, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is C$92.68, implying the stock looks roughly 84.1% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 65/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector. Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of C$136.24 per share, and 0 of the 25 models we run sit above the C$170.58 price. Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at C$23.82, and 25 of the 25 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Over the trailing twelve months, CNR.TO generated revenue of C$17.3B at a net margin of 27.2%. Revenue declined 0.5% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 21.9%. Net debt stands at C$21.5B. Fundamentals as of Aug 30, 2026
Our scenario range runs from C$49.53 (bear case) to C$177.12 (bull case); at C$170.58, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades near its 52-week high and 37% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −44% fair-value upside, at −46%, CNR screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly C$2.74 per share, which is 3.0 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 25 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings (C$136.24) versus Asset-Based (C$23.82). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (77).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 30, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 60 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 69
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Canadian National Railway Company, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the rail, intermodal, trucking, and related transportation businesses in Canada and the United States.
Full company description
Canadian National Railway Company, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the rail, intermodal, trucking, and related transportation businesses in Canada and the United States. The company provides rail services, which include equipment, customs brokerage, transloading and warehousing, business development, dimensional loads, and private railcar storage, less-than-truckload, and mexico services; intermodal services, such as temperature controlled multimodal, mobile transport trays, port partnerships, transloading and distribution, logistics parks, trucking, and supply chain services. It also offers connecting to rail, short lines, maps and network services. The company serves automotive, coal, fertilizers, temperature controlled cargo, forest products, dimensional, grain, metal and minerals, petroleum and chemicals, consumer goods, and third party logistics applications. Canadian National Railway Company was incorporated in 1919 and is headquartered in Montreal, Canada.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
CNR.TO reported revenue of C$17.3B in FY2025 versus C$14.5B in FY2021, a compound +4.6%/yr. Reported net income was C$4.7B in FY2025, compounding −0.9%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +3.7 % · buybacks/dilution +2.6 %
Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
CNR screens 84% overvalued. Compare with Union Pacific Corporation →
Peer Group
Railroads · 111 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Railroads median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Insider activity: 42/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Railroads stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 30, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Union Pacific Corporation UNP | $307.41 | $141.29 | −54% |
| CSX Corporation CSX | $48.99 | $12.62 | −74% |
| Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited CP | $94.12 | $34.33 | −64% |
| Norfolk Southern Corporation NSC | $332.96 | $114.36 | −66% |
| Canadian National Railway Company CNI | $126.01 | $90.43 | −28% |
| Westinghouse Air Brake Technologies Corporation WAB | $297.57 | $144.80 | −51% |
| Beijing-Shanghai High-Speed Railway Co 601816 | ¥4.87 | ¥5.65 | +16% |
| MTR Corporation 0066 | HK$32.04 | HK$17.85 | −44% |
| CRRC Corporation 601766 | ¥5.98 | ¥9.53 | +59% |
| Daqin Railway Co 601006 | ¥4.72 | ¥6.22 | +32% |
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