Coal India Limited (COALINDIA) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 5, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Coal India Limited stock ₹464, price ₹394, upside +17.7%, quality 67 out of 100. Rating: undervalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 3, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ₹86.18 – ₹469.36 · fair‑value band ₹363.62 – ₹572.21 · the ₹394.30 price screens below the ₹464.01 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 3, 2026.
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Coal India Limited, together with its subsidiaries, produces and sells coal and coal products in India.
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The company offers coking coal for steel making and metallurgical industries, as well as for hard coke manufacturing; semi coking coal for blend-able coal in steel making, merchant coke manufacturing, and other metallurgical industries; and non-coking coal for thermal grade coal for cement, fertilizer, glass, ceramic, paper, chemical, and brick manufacturing, as well as power generation and other heating purposes.
It also provides washed and beneficiated coal for manufacturing of hard coke for steel making and power generation, as well as for cement, sponge iron, and other industrial plants; middling products for power generation, domestic fuel plants, brick manufacturing units, cement plants, and industrial plants, etc.; and rejects products for fluidized bed combustion boilers for power generation, road repairs, briquette making, and land filling, etc.
In addition, the company offers CIL/LTC coke for use in furnaces and kilns of industrial units, as well as domestic fuel by halwais, and hotels, etc.; coal/coke fines for use in industrial furnaces and domestic purposes; and tar, heavy and light oil, and soft pitch for use in furnaces and boilers of industrial plants, power houses, oil, dye, and pharmaceutical industries, etc.
Further, it engages in coal mining and gasification; consultancy support in coal and mineral exploration; and renewable and solar energy. The company was formerly known as Coal Mines Authority Limited and changed its name to Coal India Limited in January 1975.
Coal India Limited was incorporated in 1973 and is headquartered in Kolkata, India.
Stock analysis
Coal India Limited (COALINDIA) currently trades at ₹394.30, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ₹464.01, implying the stock looks roughly 15% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of ₹702.57 per share, and 19 of the 26 models we run sit above the ₹394.30 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at ₹118.24, and 7 of the 26 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: ₹363.62 (bear) to ₹572.21 (bull), the price of ₹394.30 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 67/100 (solid quality), in the Energy sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Coal India Limited reported revenue of ₹1.7T in FY2026 versus ₹1.0T in FY2022, a compound +13.8%/yr. Reported net income was ₹311B in FY2026, compounding +15.7%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap ₹2.4T (≈ $25.7B) Large · P/E ratio 7.3 · P/S ratio 1.36 · EPS (TTM) ₹54.14 · Dividend yield 6.7% · Net margin 18.6% · Return on equity 28.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) 14.9%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 69 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 16% below its 52-week high and 11% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at −25% fair-value upside, at 18%, COALINDIA screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear₹363.62Fair Value ₹464.01Bull₹572.21
Price ₹394.30 · Upside +17.7%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 7 months old). Earnings retained since then (₹16.64 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.100/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+35.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.7%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+15.2%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +8.4% a year
Revenue growth 20 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.9%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in INR ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in INR: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+19.9%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+13.2%
Dividend (yield on the price)6.7%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.13.2% vs 8.8%, picking up
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.18% → 19%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2021 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−11.6%
The company could shrink this much every year for the next five years and today's price would still be justified.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+4.2%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (India: IMF forecast 4.1% a year to 2030, 4.7% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −15.1% a year for the price and +0.0% for the forecasts.
AI conclusion: Scale in Indian thermal coal forms the main strength while regulatory constraints and public-sector ownership create the chief weakness by introducing non-commercial priorities.
Main risk: Faster rollout of solar, wind and battery storage in India could cut demand for coal-fired baseload power, reducing Coal India's sales volumes and pressuring margins as coal moves to a smaller flexible-balancing role.
Bull case: By scaling its renewable, gasification and critical-minerals projects Coal India could offset any thermal-coal decline and create new revenue streams from the energy transition.
Bear case: If renewables plus storage rapidly displace coal in power generation Coal India's core thermal-coal franchise could shrink sharply and force expensive restructuring.
Coal India is lifting capital spending and coal supplies to match rising domestic power needs after the government dropped an import mandate. At the same time the board has approved a new holding company in Chile to chase copper and lithium assets alongside gasification projects. This raises a clear tension: will the core thermal coal franchise deliver most of the value, or will the diversification bets prove more decisive?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Thermal Coal · 81 stocks
Beats the industry median on 12/15 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score67 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+17.7% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)28.3% · Top 25%
Return on assets10.9% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months)18.6% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months)13.9% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)64.2% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (12 months)6.7% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.08× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Thermal Coal median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Coal India Limited Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/COALINDIA
Frequently asked questions
Is Coal India Limited (COALINDIA) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 3, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ₹464.01 versus a price of ₹394.30, about +18% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of COALINDIA?
Our model-based fair value for Coal India Limited is ₹464.01 (as of Nov 3, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ₹394.30.
What is the quality score of COALINDIA?
Coal India Limited has a Quality Score of 67/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Coal India Limited (COALINDIA)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of ₹464.01 (as of Nov 3, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario ₹363.62, optimistic scenario ₹572.21. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Coal India Limited stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at ₹464.01, about +18% upside versus a price of ₹394.30 (undervalued). Cautious scenario ₹363.62, optimistic scenario ₹572.21. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Coal India Limited (COALINDIA)?
Coal India Limited reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about ₹1.8T (latest available figure, as of Nov 3, 2026).
Does Coal India Limited pay a dividend?
Coal India Limited currently shows a dividend yield of 6.70% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 3, 2026).
What growth is priced into Coal India Limited (COALINDIA)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Coal India Limited would have to grow free cash flow by -11.6 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.4 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +15.2 % per year. As of Nov 3, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of COALINDIA use?
Our models discount Coal India Limited at 10.4 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.05, country premium for India. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Coal India Limited that is -11.6 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.4 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Coal India Limited (COALINDIA) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Coal India Limited grew +15.2 % a year. The price currently implies -11.6 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Coal India Limited (COALINDIA) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +14.1 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Coal India Limited (-11.6 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Coal India Limited (COALINDIA)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 14.16 %: that much free cash flow Coal India Limited produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.4 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Coal India Limited (COALINDIA)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Coal India Limited it is ₹464.01 per share (as of Nov 3, 2026), against a price of ₹394.30. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Coal India Limited stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 3, 2026, COALINDIA trades below its calculated fair value: price ₹394.30, fair value ₹464.01, a gap of about +18% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of COALINDIA?
No. The price is what the market pays today (₹394.30); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (₹464.01). For Coal India Limited the two are ₹69.71 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Coal India Limited worth?
The market values Coal India Limited at about ₹2.4T (market capitalisation, as of Nov 3, 2026). Per share that is ₹394.30; our models calculate a fair value of ₹464.01 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about COALINDIA?
Our models span a range for Coal India Limited: cautious scenario ₹363.62, base ₹464.01, optimistic ₹572.21 per share (as of Nov 3, 2026, price ₹394.30). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of COALINDIA?
Coal India Limited trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 7.3 (as of Nov 3, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of ₹464.01 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 10 fiscal years (2017 to 2026), reported earnings: 7.0. Other multiples: PEG 0.9, P/B 2.0, P/S 1.4, EV/EBITDA 4.7.
What is the PEG ratio of COALINDIA?
The PEG ratio of Coal India Limited is 0.87 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 3, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Coal India Limited (COALINDIA)?
Balance-sheet figures for Coal India Limited (as of Nov 3, 2026): return on equity 28.3%, debt of 0.08 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 67/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is COALINDIA from its 52-week high?
Coal India Limited trades at ₹394.30, about 16% below its 52-week high of ₹469.36 and 11% above the low of ₹355.90 (as of Nov 5, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of ₹464.01 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Coal India Limited?
From the same area (Energy) we also value China Shenhua Energy Company, Shaanxi Coal Industry Company, Adani Enterprises Limited, China Coal Energy Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Coal India Limited stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 3, 2026: price ₹394.30, calculated fair value ₹464.01 (+18%), Quality Score 67/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of COALINDIA calculated?
We run Coal India Limited through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of ₹464.01, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.6% above its aggregate fair value. Coal India Limited currently trades 15% below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Coal India Limited (COALINDIA)?
The closing price on Nov 5, 2026 was ₹394.30. Our model-based fair value is ₹464.01, about +18% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Coal India Limited right now?
The price sits in the lower half of our model range, the side with the larger margin of safety. The data supports the verdict: every model runs on fully documented inputs.
Where does the earnings growth of Coal India Limited (COALINDIA) come from?
Earnings per share at Coal India Limited grew +12.3 % a year from 2015 to 2026. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +7.5 %, EBIT margin +2.9 %, tax rate +1.7 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −0.1 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Coal India Limited
How large is the market capitalisation of Coal India Limited (COALINDIA)?
The market capitalisation of Coal India Limited is ₹2.4T (≈ $25.7B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Coal India Limited (COALINDIA)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Coal India Limited is 1.36 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Coal India Limited (COALINDIA)?
Earnings per share at Coal India Limited are ₹54.14 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 7.3). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Coal India Limited (COALINDIA)?
The dividend yield of Coal India Limited is 6.7% (payout 48.8%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Coal India Limited (COALINDIA)?
The net margin of Coal India Limited is 18.6% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Coal India Limited (COALINDIA)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Coal India Limited is 28.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Coal India Limited (COALINDIA)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Coal India Limited is 14.9% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Coal India Limited (COALINDIA)?
The operating margin of Coal India Limited is 13.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Coal India Limited (COALINDIA)?
Revenue at Coal India Limited is growing +64.2% versus a year earlier (3y avg +9.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Coal India Limited (COALINDIA)?
Earnings per share at Coal India Limited are growing +49.5% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Coal India Limited (COALINDIA) hold?
Coal India Limited holds more cash than debt, ₹385B net (fiscal year 2026). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Broad data
Nov 3, 2026