Circle Internet Group, Inc. (CRCL) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 4, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Circle Internet Group, Inc. stock $10.25, price $76.12, that is 86.5% below the price, quality 44 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 2 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Our calculation puts a fair price 87% below what the stock costs today.
Solidly profitable · 15.5% net margin (TTM)
Low debt
Generates free cash flow
Quality 44/100
Mixed Growth(revenue 5y +181.9 %/yr in USD)
Moderate moat47/100 · thin data
Neutral coverage
Insiders sold $195.1M (6M)
Fair value $10.25 · Strongly overvalued (−86.5%)
Trails peers(2/13)
Thin data
Extreme value⚠ Dilution
Risks from the AI analysis
🚩AI assistants directing users to higher-yielding bank accounts🚩Open USD and similar consortia share reserve income with partners🚩MiCA rules require higher bank deposit holdings for significant stablecoins
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
How to read this chart
17‑month range $31.00 – $263.45 · fair‑value band $7.68 – $12.81 · the $76.12 price screens above the $10.25 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 6, 2026.
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Circle Internet Group, Inc. operates as a platform, network, and market infrastructure for stablecoin and blockchain applications.
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The company provides various platform including Arc Blockchain and Developer Infrastructure, an open, layer-1 blockchain network purpose-built to bring real world economic activity onchain; Circle Digital Assets and Services, which includes circle digital assets, USDC, EURC, and USYC, as well as circle mint and xreserve, related liquidity, custody, and trust infrastructure; and Circle Applications, which includes circle payments network and stablefx, applications that use circle digital assets to deliver real-world utility on the arc network and across the broader multichain ecosystem.
Its stablecoins network comprises circle stablecoins, tokenized funds, liquidity, payments network, and developer services, as well as integration services. The company was founded in 2013 and is based in New York, New York.
Stock analysis
Circle Internet Group, Inc. (CRCL) currently trades at $76.12, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $10.25, 87% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
How firm this estimate is: it rests on 2 models at a data quality of 96/100, which puts the data coverage at low.
Scenario range: $7.68 (bear) to $12.81 (bull), the price of $76.12 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 44/100 (below-average quality), in the Financial Services sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Circle Internet Group, Inc. reported revenue of $2.7B in FY2025 versus $84.9M in FY2021, a compound +138.5%/yr. Reported net income was −$69.5M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $20.4B Large · P/E ratio 58.8 · P/S ratio 7.04 · EPS (TTM) $1.46 · Net margin 15.5% · Return on equity 15.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) 0.2% · Operating margin 4.9%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 47 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 43% below its 52-week high and 52% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −17% fair-value upside, at −87%, CRCL screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$7.68Fair Value $10.25Bull$12.81
Price $76.12 · Downside -86.5%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then ($1.24 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
P/B Multiple$9.04$12.06$15.0755
NCAV (Graham)$6.80$10.30$12.8854
All 2 models by family
Multiples
P/B Multiple$9.04$12.06$15.0755
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)$6.80$10.30$12.8854
The fair value above starts from this blend and is adjusted for dilution from new shares.
In the last 6 months, 10 officers or directors sold shares worth $195.1M and none bought.
SaleJeremy Fox-GeenChief Financial Officer12× since Dec 12, 2025: 214,244 shares, avg. $89.74$19.2MNov 3, 202610b5-1 plan
SaleHossein RazzaghiChief Commercial Officer7× since Mar 3, 2026: 92,521 shares, avg. $88.80$8.2MNov 3, 202610b5-1 plan
SaleTamara L SchulzChief Accounting Officer12× since Dec 2, 2025: 17,858 shares, avg. $82.28$1.5MNov 3, 202610b5-1 plan
SaleNikhil ChandhokChief Product & Tech. Officer13× since Dec 1, 2025: 793,069 shares, avg. $76.49$60.7MOct 8, 2026
SaleJeremy AllaireChairman and CEO, Director10× since Dec 12, 2025: 342,571 shares, avg. $79.78$27.3MOct 5, 202610b5-1 plan
SalePatrick Sean NevilleDirector12× since Nov 13, 2025: 1,477,965 shares, avg. $83.38$123.2MSep 1, 2026
SaleM Michele BurnsDirector8× since Feb 26, 2026: 180,000 shares, avg. $99.50$17.9MAug 20, 2026
SaleDanita K OstlingDirector4× since Nov 13, 2025: 26,362 shares, avg. $69.70$1.8MAug 6, 2026
SaleHeath TarbertPresident8× since Dec 12, 2025: 250,042 shares, avg. $97.45$24.4MJun 10, 202610b5-1 plan
SaleRajeev Date VDirector9× since Nov 13, 2025: 518,872 shares, avg. $80.81$41.9MJun 9, 2026
Plus 59 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.91/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+63.9%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+52.7%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+181.9%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−200.1% (2020) → −3.3% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
less than -40 %
The company could shrink this much every year for the next five years and today's price would still be justified.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+19.2%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +16.5% a year for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (98 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Neutral
Recent news coverage is roughly neutral, about typical for how stocks are covered.
AI conclusion: Circle draws its main strength from interest income on USDC reserves while its main weakness remains negative earnings, thin margins and absence of a proven moat.
Main risk: Rivals such as Open USD backed by Stripe, Coinbase, Visa, Mastercard and BlackRock could attract distribution partners by passing most reserve income to them after a fee, reducing Circle's share of USDC revenue and pressuring core interest margins.
Bull case: Circle could expand its Agent Stack tools and Arc blockchain to capture more programmable payments from AI agents and enterprise integrations, strengthening network effects and offsetting any partner shifts.
Bear case: If partners migrate to revenue-sharing models like Open USD and regulatory deposit rules raise costs, Circle might lose significant USDC circulation share, eroding reserve interest that funds nearly all revenue and threatening its issuance business.
Circle earns nearly all its revenue from interest on USDC reserves. Mizuho recently warned that AI assistants could steer users toward higher-yielding FDIC-insured bank accounts, risking 10 to 20 percent of that income over the medium term. Our models see the shares as overvalued. Will expanding enterprise payments integrations protect the business or will AI preferences erode reserve balances more quickly?
Compare Circle Internet Group, Inc. with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Capital Markets · 384 stocks
Beats the industry median on 2/13 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score44 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside−86.5% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)15.4% · Above median
Return on assets−0.1% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (12 months)15.5% · Below median
Operating margin (12 months)4.9% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)6.6% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.01× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Capital Markets median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)58.8× · Priciest 25%
P/B6.14× · Priciest 25%
P/S (12 months)7.04× · Priciest 25%
Price / free cash flow38.6× · Priciest 25%
PEG6.86× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 41
FUTURE (revenue growth)33· sector 67
PAST (return on equity)61· sector 38
HEALTH (low debt)99· sector 94
DIVIDEND (yield)0· sector 46
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Circle Internet Group, Inc. Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/CRCL
Frequently asked questions
Is Circle Internet Group, Inc. (CRCL) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 6, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $10.25 versus a price of $76.12, about 87% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of CRCL?
Our model-based fair value for Circle Internet Group, Inc. is $10.25 (as of Nov 6, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $76.12.
What is the quality score of CRCL?
Circle Internet Group, Inc. has a Quality Score of 44/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Circle Internet Group, Inc. (CRCL)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $10.25 (as of Nov 6, 2026) from 2 valuation models. Cautious scenario $7.68, optimistic scenario $12.81. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Circle Internet Group, Inc. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $10.25, about 87% lower versus a price of $76.12 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $7.68, optimistic scenario $12.81. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Circle Internet Group, Inc. (CRCL)?
Circle Internet Group, Inc. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $2.9B (latest available figure, as of Nov 6, 2026).
What growth is priced into Circle Internet Group, Inc. (CRCL)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Circle Internet Group, Inc. would have to grow free cash flow by less than minus 40 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.2 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +181.9 % per year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of CRCL use?
Our models discount Circle Internet Group, Inc. at 9.2 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Circle Internet Group, Inc. that is less than minus 40 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.2 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Circle Internet Group, Inc. (CRCL) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Circle Internet Group, Inc. grew +181.9 % a year. The price currently implies less than minus 40 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Circle Internet Group, Inc. (CRCL) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +11.3 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Circle Internet Group, Inc. (less than minus 40 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Circle Internet Group, Inc. (CRCL)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 2.59 %: that much free cash flow Circle Internet Group, Inc. produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.2 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Circle Internet Group, Inc. (CRCL)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Circle Internet Group, Inc. it is $10.25 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026), against a price of $76.12. It is the blended result of 2 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Circle Internet Group, Inc. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 6, 2026, CRCL trades above its calculated fair value: price $76.12, fair value $10.25, a gap of about −87% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of CRCL?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($76.12); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($10.25). For Circle Internet Group, Inc. the two are $65.87 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Circle Internet Group, Inc. worth?
The market values Circle Internet Group, Inc. at about $20.4B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 6, 2026). Per share that is $76.12; our models calculate a fair value of $10.25 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about CRCL?
Our models span a range for Circle Internet Group, Inc.: cautious scenario $7.68, base $10.25, optimistic $12.81 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026, price $76.12). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of CRCL?
Circle Internet Group, Inc. trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 58.8 (as of Nov 6, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $10.25 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 6.9, P/B 6.1, P/S 7.0.
What is the PEG ratio of CRCL?
The PEG ratio of Circle Internet Group, Inc. is 6.86 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 6, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Circle Internet Group, Inc. (CRCL)?
Balance-sheet figures for Circle Internet Group, Inc. (as of Nov 6, 2026): return on equity 15.4%, debt of 0.01 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 44/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is CRCL from its 52-week high?
Circle Internet Group, Inc. trades at $76.12, about 43% below its 52-week high of $132.84 and 52% above the low of $50.23 (as of Nov 4, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $10.25 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Circle Internet Group, Inc.?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value Morgan Stanley, The Goldman Sachs Group, The Charles Schwab Corporation, Interactive Brokers Group, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Circle Internet Group, Inc. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 6, 2026: price $76.12, calculated fair value $10.25 (−87%), Quality Score 44/100, from 2 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of CRCL calculated?
We run Circle Internet Group, Inc. through 2 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $10.25, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.5% above its aggregate fair value. Circle Internet Group, Inc. itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Circle Internet Group, Inc. (CRCL)?
The closing price on Nov 4, 2026 was $76.12. Our model-based fair value is $10.25, about 87% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Circle Internet Group, Inc. right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($12.81). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (44/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Key figures of Circle Internet Group, Inc.
How large is the market capitalisation of Circle Internet Group, Inc. (CRCL)?
The market capitalisation of Circle Internet Group, Inc. is $20.4B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Circle Internet Group, Inc. (CRCL)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Circle Internet Group, Inc. is 7.04 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Circle Internet Group, Inc. (CRCL)?
Earnings per share at Circle Internet Group, Inc. are $1.46 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 58.8). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Circle Internet Group, Inc. (CRCL)?
The net margin of Circle Internet Group, Inc. is 15.5% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Circle Internet Group, Inc. (CRCL)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Circle Internet Group, Inc. is 15.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Circle Internet Group, Inc. (CRCL)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Circle Internet Group, Inc. is 0.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Circle Internet Group, Inc. (CRCL)?
The operating margin of Circle Internet Group, Inc. is 4.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Circle Internet Group, Inc. (CRCL)?
Revenue at Circle Internet Group, Inc. is growing +6.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg +52.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Circle Internet Group, Inc. (CRCL)?
Earnings per share at Circle Internet Group, Inc. are growing −80.9% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Circle Internet Group, Inc. (CRCL) hold?
Circle Internet Group, Inc. holds more cash than debt, $77.4B net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Thin data
Nov 6, 2026