Circle Internet Group (CRCL) Fair Value & Analysis
Financial Services · US · Market cap $16.2B
Circle Internet Group
CRCL · US
Fair value as of: Jul 18, 2026
From 7 valuation models · updated 20 days ago
Share price −2.9% over the past month.
Below-average quality, screening 62% undervalued on our models.
What matters now
- The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (22/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain.
- The price is below even our cautious bear case ($100.74). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
- The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
- The models converge in a tight band ($100.74 to $104.82), unusually little disagreement for a valuation.
Price vs Fair Value (14 months)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Jul 18, 2026.
How to read this chart
14‑month range $31.00 – $263.45 · fair‑value band $100.74 – $104.82 · the $63.28 price screens below the $102.78 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Jul 18, 2026.
Analysis
Circle Internet Group (CRCL) currently trades at $63.28, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $102.78, implying the stock looks roughly 62.4% undervalued today. We read business quality at 22/100 (below-average quality), in the Financial Services sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: low), always confirm before acting.
Over the trailing twelve months, Circle Internet Group generated revenue of $2.9B at a net margin of -2.8%. Revenue grew 20.0% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -3.0%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of $77.4B. Fundamentals as of Jul 18, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $100.74 (bear case) to $104.82 (bull case); at $63.28, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 79% below its 52-week high and 27% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at 11% fair-value upside, at 62%, CRCL screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 7 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models ($131.20) versus Asset-Based ($3.20). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 18, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 48 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 8
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Circle Internet Group, Inc. operates as a platform, network, and market infrastructure for stablecoin and blockchain applications.
Full company description
Circle Internet Group, Inc. operates as a platform, network, and market infrastructure for stablecoin and blockchain applications. The company provides various platform including Arc Blockchain and Developer Infrastructure, an open, layer-1 blockchain network purpose-built to bring real world economic activity onchain; Circle Digital Assets and Services, which includes circle digital assets, USDC, EURC, and USYC, as well as circle mint and xreserve, related liquidity, custody, and trust infrastructure; and Circle Applications, which includes circle payments network and stablefx, applications that use circle digital assets to deliver real-world utility on the arc network and across the broader multichain ecosystem. Its stablecoins network comprises circle stablecoins, tokenized funds, liquidity, payments network, and developer services, as well as integration services. The company was founded in 2013 and is based in New York, New York.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Circle Internet Group reported revenue of $2.7B in FY2025 versus $84.9M in FY2021, a compound +138.5%/yr. Reported net income was −$69.5M in FY2025.
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Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Investor Cathie Wood Buys Coinbase And Circle Stocks
- Wall Street Splits on Circle: $38 Bear vs. $140 Bull Two Days Before Q2
- Morgan Stanley downgrades Circle, slashes price target by 64%
Peer Group
Capital Markets · 424 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Capital Markets median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Insider activity: 40/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Capital Markets stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 18, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Huatai Securities Co HTSC | $0.2700 | $0.0400 | -85% |
| Mirae Asset Securities Co 006800 | 38,750 KRW | 31,645 KRW | -18% |
| Meritz Financial Group 138040 | 117,000 KRW | 87,706 KRW | -25% |
| Korea Investment Holdings 071050 | 239,000 KRW | 318,825 KRW | +33% |
| NH Investment & Securities Co 005940 | 31,000 KRW | 37,133 KRW | +20% |
| Samsung Securities Co 016360 | 107,700 KRW | 126,487 KRW | +17% |
| Motilal Oswal Financial Services Limited MOTILALOFS | ₹967.00 | ₹299.65 | -69% |
| Kiwoom Securities Co 039490 | 322,000 KRW | 358,091 KRW | +11% |
| SSI Securities Corporation SSI | 24,250 VND | 28,021 VND | +16% |
| Bolsas y Mercados Argentinos S.A BYMA | 313.75 ARS | 120.22 ARS | -62% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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