Dow Inc (DOW) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 4, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Dow Inc stock $41.88, price $32.70, upside +28.1%, quality 34 out of 100. Rating: undervalued. Calculated from audited financials with 2 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 3, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $19.61 – $55.03 · fair‑value band $20.50 – $63.26 · the $32.70 price screens below the $41.88 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 3, 2026.
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Dow Inc., through its subsidiaries, provides various materials science solutions for packaging, infrastructure, mobility, and consumer applications in the United States, Canada, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, India, the Asia Pacific, and Latin America.
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The company operates through Packaging & Specialty Plastics, Industrial Intermediates & Infrastructure, and Performance Materials & Coatings segments.
The Packaging & Specialty Plastics segment provides ethylene, propylene, polyethylene, and aromatics products; and other ethylene derivatives, such as polyolefin elastomers, ethylene vinyl acetate, and ethylene propylene diene monomer rubber.
The Industrial Intermediates & Infrastructure segment offers polyurethanes, including propylene oxide, propylene glycol, and polyether polyols; aromatic isocyanates and fully formulated polyurethane systems; and chlor-alkali and vinyl comprising chlorine and caustic soda, ethylene dichloride, and vinyl chloride monomer; and construction chemicals consisting of cellulose ethers, redispersible latex powders, and acrylic emulsions, as well as coatings, adhesives, sealants, elastomers, and composites.
The Performance Materials & Coatings segment provides architectural paints and coatings, and industrial coatings; and acrylics-based building blocks, silicon metals, siloxanes, and intermediates. The company also engages in the property and casualty insurance, as well as reinsurance business.
The company was founded in 1897 and is headquartered in Midland, Michigan.
Stock analysis
Dow Inc (DOW) currently trades at $32.70, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $41.88, implying the stock looks roughly 22% undervalued today.
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Valuation
How firm this estimate is: it rests on 2 models at a data quality of 92/100, which puts the data coverage at low.
Scenario range: $20.50 (bear) to $63.26 (bull), the price of $32.70 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 34/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is weak: less than 2 % a year.
Dow Inc reported revenue of $40.0B in FY2025 versus $55.0B in FY2021, a compound −7.7%/yr. Reported net income was −$2.6B in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $23.2B Large · P/S ratio 0.57 · EPS (TTM) $−1.29 · Dividend yield 4.3% · Net margin −2.1% · Return on equity −3.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) 5.9% · Operating margin 6.8%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 21 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 20% below its 52-week high and 64% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at −30% fair-value upside, at 28%, DOW screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$20.50Fair Value $41.88Bull$63.26
Price $32.70 · Upside +28.1%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
EV/EBITDA$10.25$20.94$31.6364
NCAV (Graham)$4.52$6.06$9.0454
All 2 models by family
Multiples
EV/EBITDA$10.25$20.94$31.6364
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)$4.52$6.06$9.0454
The fair value above starts from this blend and is adjusted for a cyclical trough year.
In the last 6 months, no officer or director bought or sold shares on the open market.
Plus 2 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.6/100
Revenue growth is weak: less than 2 % a year.
Revenue growth 1 year
−7.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−11.1%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+0.7%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +0.7% a year
Revenue growth 16 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−0.7%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
6.7% (2020) → 0.7% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (97 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Neutral
Recent news coverage is roughly neutral, about typical for how stocks are covered.
AI conclusion: The Transform to Outperform efficiency drive through automation and job cuts forms the main strength, while negative profitability, margins and free cash flow with high debt remain the central weakness.
Main risk: Ongoing class-action lawsuits and stricter environmental rules on PFAS chemicals from legacy operations could impose large remediation costs and liabilities that raise expenses and constrain margins in Dow's materials portfolio.
Bull case: By developing PFAS-free alternatives and settling legacy claims efficiently Dow could expand its sustainable materials offerings and capture demand in regulated end markets.
Bear case: If PFAS-related liabilities and compliance burdens grow substantially Dow might incur persistent high costs that limit investment in new capacity and slow adaptation to shifting customer preferences.
Dow continues to roll out its Transform to Outperform program, cutting thousands of jobs and using automation to simplify operations and improve productivity. Soft demand in key areas like polyethylene keeps pressuring volumes and prices despite solid liquidity. Will the efficiency push build a more resilient business for the next upcycle, or will it mainly shield margins through an extended weak period?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Chemicals · 340 stocks
Beats the industry median on 5/12 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score34 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside+28.1% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on assets−4.5% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (12 months)−2.1% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (12 months)6.8% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)13.0% · Below median
Dividend yield (12 months)4.3% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity1.05× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Chemicals median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Dow Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/DOW
Frequently asked questions
Is Dow Inc (DOW) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 3, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $41.88 versus a price of $32.70, about +28% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of DOW?
Our model-based fair value for Dow Inc is $41.88 (as of Nov 3, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $32.70.
What is the quality score of DOW?
Dow Inc has a Quality Score of 34/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Dow Inc (DOW)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $41.88 (as of Nov 3, 2026) from 2 valuation models. Cautious scenario $20.50, optimistic scenario $63.26. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Dow Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $41.88, about +28% upside versus a price of $32.70 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $20.50, optimistic scenario $63.26. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Dow Inc (DOW)?
Dow Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $42.6B (latest available figure, as of Nov 3, 2026).
Does Dow Inc pay a dividend?
Dow Inc currently shows a dividend yield of 4.28% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 3, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Dow Inc (DOW)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Dow Inc it is $41.88 per share (as of Nov 3, 2026), against a price of $32.70. It is the blended result of 2 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Dow Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 3, 2026, DOW trades below its calculated fair value: price $32.70, fair value $41.88, a gap of about +28% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of DOW?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($32.70); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($41.88). For Dow Inc the two are $9.18 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Dow Inc worth?
The market values Dow Inc at about $23.2B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 3, 2026). Per share that is $32.70; our models calculate a fair value of $41.88 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about DOW?
Our models span a range for Dow Inc: cautious scenario $20.50, base $41.88, optimistic $63.26 per share (as of Nov 3, 2026, price $32.70). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the PEG ratio of DOW?
The PEG ratio of Dow Inc is 0.54 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 3, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Dow Inc (DOW)?
Balance-sheet figures for Dow Inc (as of Nov 3, 2026): return on equity −3.2%, debt of 1.05 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 34/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is DOW from its 52-week high?
Dow Inc trades at $32.70, about 20% below its 52-week high of $40.97 and 64% above the low of $19.96 (as of Nov 4, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $41.88 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Dow Inc?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value BASF SE, Ningxia Baofeng Energy Group, Zangge Mining Company, Hengli Petrochemical Co, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Dow Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 3, 2026: price $32.70, calculated fair value $41.88 (+28%), Quality Score 34/100, from 2 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of DOW calculated?
We run Dow Inc through 2 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $41.88, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.0% above its aggregate fair value. Dow Inc currently trades 22% below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Dow Inc (DOW)?
The closing price on Nov 4, 2026 was $32.70. Our model-based fair value is $41.88, about +28% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Dow Inc right now?
The model range is unusually wide ($20.50 to $63.26). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual.
Where does the earnings growth of Dow Inc (DOW) come from?
Earnings per share at Dow Inc grew −16.8 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +0.7 %, EBIT margin −8.2 %, tax rate −0.2 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −9.9 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Dow Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of Dow Inc (DOW)?
The market capitalisation of Dow Inc is $23.2B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Dow Inc (DOW)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Dow Inc is 0.57 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Dow Inc (DOW)?
Earnings per share at Dow Inc are $−1.29. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Dow Inc (DOW)?
The dividend yield of Dow Inc is 4.3%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Dow Inc (DOW)?
The net margin of Dow Inc is −2.1% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Dow Inc (DOW)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Dow Inc is −3.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Dow Inc (DOW)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Dow Inc is 5.9% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Dow Inc (DOW)?
The operating margin of Dow Inc is 6.8% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Dow Inc (DOW)?
Revenue at Dow Inc is growing +13.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg −11.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Dow Inc (DOW)?
Earnings per share at Dow Inc are growing +675% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Dow Inc (DOW) generate?
The free cash flow of Dow Inc is −$1.4B (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Dow Inc (DOW) carry?
The net debt of Dow Inc is $15.8B (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Thin data
Nov 3, 2026
