Hellenic Petroleum S.A (ELPE) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Hellenic Petroleum S.A stock €6.16, price €16.08, that is 61.7% below the price, quality 56 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 23 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 7, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range €3.54 – €19.64 · fair‑value band €4.31 – €7.40 · the €16.08 price screens above the €6.16 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 7, 2026.
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HELLENiQ ENERGY Holdings S.A., together with its subsidiaries, operates in the energy sector primarily in Greece, the South-eastern Europe, and the East Mediterranean.
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The company operates through: Refining, Supply and Trading; Marketing; Production and Trading of Petrochemicals; Electricity Generation & Trading and Natural Gas; Exploration and Production of Hydrocarbons; and Electromobility segments.
It engages in the refining, supply, and trading of crude oil and petroleum products; marketing of fuels; wholesale trading of oil products; production and marketing of polypropylene, BOPP films, and solvents; trading of imported plastics and chemicals; and production, trading, and supply of power.
The company is also involved in the wholesale trading, supply, and distribution of natural gas; generation of electricity through renewable resources; exploration and production of hydrocarbons; and provision of treasury, consulting, and engineering services, as well as IT services.
In addition, it engages in the owning of vessels; leasing of other commercial properties, such as highway service stations; operation of petrol stations; production of lubricants; logistics & distribution of LPG; real estate activities; and operation of fuel storage facilities and various underground crude oil pipelines.
The company was formerly known as Hellenic Petroleum Holdings Societe Anonyme and changed its name to HELLENiQ ENERGY Holdings S.A. in September 2022. HELLENiQ ENERGY Holdings S.A. was founded in 1998 and is based in Marousi, Greece.
Stock analysis
Hellenic Petroleum S.A (ELPE) currently trades at €16.08, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €6.16, 62% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of €8.01 per share, and 0 of the 23 models we run sit above the €16.08 price.
Bear case: the Growth DCF group reads lowest at €0.7200, and 23 of the 23 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: €4.31 (bear) to €7.40 (bull), the price of €16.08 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 56/100 (solid quality), in the Energy sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Hellenic Petroleum S.A reported revenue of €11.6B in FY2025 versus €9.2B in FY2021, a compound +5.9%/yr. Reported net income was €173M in FY2025, compounding −15.3%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap €4.9B Mid · P/E ratio 4.8 · P/S ratio 0.41 · EPS (TTM) €3.35 · Dividend yield 3.7% · Net margin 7.8% · Return on equity 34.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) 8.0% (5-year average).
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 53 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 18% below its 52-week high and 118% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at −15% fair-value upside, at −62%, ELPE screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear€4.31Fair Value €6.16Bull€7.40
Price €16.08 · Downside -61.7%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then (€2.36 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
−9.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−7.1%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+15.0%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +4.7% a year
Revenue growth 20 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.8%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−3.3%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−7.0%
Dividend (yield on the price)3.7%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−7.0% vs −0.8%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−8% → 3%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+38.6%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+0.2%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (euro area: IMF forecast 2.2% a year to 2030, 2.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +35.6% a year for the price and −1.9% for the forecasts.
AI conclusion: Integrated refining and marketing still generate most earnings while the first steps into battery storage add little pricing power against persistently low margins and high leverage.
Main risk: Stricter EU emissions rules or carbon pricing under the ETS might increase compliance costs or constrain utilization at Helleniq Energy's refining operations.
Bull case: By expanding its renewables, battery storage and EV charging network the group could offset any softening in core fuel demand and build a more diversified earnings base.
Bear case: If regulatory costs rise sharply or EV uptake accelerates faster than expected, refining margins and volumes could come under sustained pressure and limit the contribution from traditional operations.
Helleniq Energy has commissioned its first major battery storage plant in Thessaloniki, adding 100 MW of capacity to support renewable integration. Its traditional refining and marketing operations still drive most results, yet the group is steadily expanding its green portfolio. Our models see the shares as overvalued. Will the storage and renewables projects generate sufficient margins to ease pressure on the core business or remain secondary to it?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Oil & Gas Integrated · 43 stocks
Beats the industry median on 6/14 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score56 · Below median
Fair Value upside−61.7% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)34.9% · Top 25%
Return on assets2.0% · Below median
Net margin (12 months)7.8% · Below median
Operating margin (12 months)17.4% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)76.3% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (12 months)3.7% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity1.04× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Oil & Gas Integrated median · lower = cheaper
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Is Hellenic Petroleum S.A (ELPE) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 7, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €6.16 versus a price of €16.08, about 62% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of ELPE?
Our model-based fair value for Hellenic Petroleum S.A is €6.16 (as of Nov 7, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: €16.08.
What is the quality score of ELPE?
Hellenic Petroleum S.A has a Quality Score of 56/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Hellenic Petroleum S.A (ELPE)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of €6.16 (as of Nov 7, 2026) from 23 valuation models. Cautious scenario €4.31, optimistic scenario €7.40. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Hellenic Petroleum S.A stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at €6.16, about 62% lower versus a price of €16.08 (overvalued). Cautious scenario €4.31, optimistic scenario €7.40. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Hellenic Petroleum S.A (ELPE)?
Hellenic Petroleum S.A reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €13.5B (latest available figure, as of Nov 7, 2026).
Does Hellenic Petroleum S.A pay a dividend?
Hellenic Petroleum S.A currently shows a dividend yield of 3.73% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 7, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Hellenic Petroleum S.A (ELPE) and when is the ex-dividend date?
Hellenic Petroleum S.A pays a dividend of €0.6 per share a year, a dividend yield of 3.7%. The last ex-dividend date was Jul 1, 2026. A dividend has been paid every year since 2017. The payout ratio is 17.9% of earnings. Free cash flow covers the dividend 0.51 times. Our assessment: Watch coverage. The dividend isn’t fully covered by free cash flow or earnings, part of it is funded from reserves or debt. Fine for now, but worth watching: if it stays uncovered, the dividend could be cut.
What growth is priced into Hellenic Petroleum S.A (ELPE)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Hellenic Petroleum S.A would have to grow free cash flow by +38.6 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.9 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +15.0 % per year. As of Nov 7, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of ELPE use?
Our models discount Hellenic Petroleum S.A at 10.9 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.10, country premium for Greece. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Hellenic Petroleum S.A that is +38.6 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (10.9 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Hellenic Petroleum S.A (ELPE) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Hellenic Petroleum S.A grew +15.0 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of +38.6 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Hellenic Petroleum S.A (ELPE) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +14.3 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Hellenic Petroleum S.A (+38.6 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Hellenic Petroleum S.A (ELPE)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 1.92 %: that much free cash flow Hellenic Petroleum S.A produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.9 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Hellenic Petroleum S.A (ELPE)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Hellenic Petroleum S.A it is €6.16 per share (as of Nov 7, 2026), against a price of €16.08. It is the blended result of 23 valuation models in 8 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is Hellenic Petroleum S.A stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 7, 2026, ELPE trades above its calculated fair value: price €16.08, fair value €6.16, a gap of about −62% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of ELPE?
No. The price is what the market pays today (€16.08); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (€6.16). For Hellenic Petroleum S.A the two are €9.92 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Hellenic Petroleum S.A worth?
The market values Hellenic Petroleum S.A at about €4.9B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 7, 2026). Per share that is €16.08; our models calculate a fair value of €6.16 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about ELPE?
Our models span a range for Hellenic Petroleum S.A: cautious scenario €4.31, base €6.16, optimistic €7.40 per share (as of Nov 7, 2026, price €16.08). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of ELPE?
Hellenic Petroleum S.A trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 4.8 (as of Nov 7, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of €6.16 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 9 fiscal years (2016 to 2025), reported earnings: 6.1. Other multiples: P/B 2.1, P/S 0.4, EV/EBITDA 4.3.
How solid is the balance sheet of Hellenic Petroleum S.A (ELPE)?
Balance-sheet figures for Hellenic Petroleum S.A (as of Nov 7, 2026): return on equity 34.9%, debt of 1.04 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 56/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is ELPE from its 52-week high?
Hellenic Petroleum S.A trades at €16.08, about 18% below its 52-week high of €19.64 and 118% above the low of €7.38 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of €6.16 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Hellenic Petroleum S.A?
From the same area (Energy) we also value Saudi Arabian Oil Company, Exxon Mobil Corporation, Chevron Corporation, PetroChina Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Hellenic Petroleum S.A stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 7, 2026: price €16.08, calculated fair value €6.16 (−62%), Quality Score 56/100, from 23 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of ELPE calculated?
We run Hellenic Petroleum S.A through 23 models from 8 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of €6.16 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. Hellenic Petroleum S.A itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Hellenic Petroleum S.A (ELPE)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was €16.08. Our model-based fair value is €6.16, about 62% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Hellenic Petroleum S.A right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (€7.40). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (56/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Where does the earnings growth of Hellenic Petroleum S.A (ELPE) come from?
Earnings per share at Hellenic Petroleum S.A grew +2.7 % a year from 2015 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +7.0 %, EBIT margin −4.7 %, tax rate −2.4 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +3.1 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Hellenic Petroleum S.A
How large is the market capitalisation of Hellenic Petroleum S.A (ELPE)?
The market capitalisation of Hellenic Petroleum S.A is €4.9B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Hellenic Petroleum S.A (ELPE)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Hellenic Petroleum S.A is 0.41 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Hellenic Petroleum S.A (ELPE)?
Earnings per share at Hellenic Petroleum S.A are €3.35 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 4.8). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Hellenic Petroleum S.A (ELPE)?
The dividend yield of Hellenic Petroleum S.A is 3.7% (payout 17.9%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Hellenic Petroleum S.A (ELPE)?
The net margin of Hellenic Petroleum S.A is 7.8% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Hellenic Petroleum S.A (ELPE)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Hellenic Petroleum S.A is 34.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Hellenic Petroleum S.A (ELPE)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Hellenic Petroleum S.A is 8.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Hellenic Petroleum S.A (ELPE)?
The operating margin of Hellenic Petroleum S.A is 17.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Hellenic Petroleum S.A (ELPE)?
Revenue at Hellenic Petroleum S.A is growing +76.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg −7.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Hellenic Petroleum S.A (ELPE)?
Earnings per share at Hellenic Petroleum S.A are growing +30.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Hellenic Petroleum S.A (ELPE) carry?
The net debt of Hellenic Petroleum S.A is €2.1B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 22.7 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Nov 7, 2026