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HELLENiQ ENERGY Holdings (ELPE) Fair Value & Analysis

Energy · GR · Market cap €3.2B

HE HELLENiQ ENERGY Holdings ELPE · AT
Price€13.07
Fair Value€7.50
Upside-42.6%
Quality56/100
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Mixed Growth
Thin margins · 3.9% net margin
Moderate debt · generates free cash flow
5.77% dividend yield
Mixed vs. peers (7/14)
Moderate moat 46/100
Evidence: High Range €5.96 – €8.02 Share as image

Fair value as of: Jul 17, 2026

From 18 valuation models · updated 24 days ago

Share price +21.6% over the past month.

A solid business, but screening 43% overvalued on our models.

What matters now

  • The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (€8.02). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
  • Solid but not exceptional quality (56/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
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Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

€13.11 €3.69 Fair Value €7.50 Apr 2021 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 17, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range €3.69 – €13.11 · fair‑value band €5.96 – €8.02 · the €13.07 price screens above the €7.50 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 17, 2026.

Full chart & analysis →

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Analysis

HELLENiQ ENERGY Holdings (ELPE) currently trades at €13.07, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €7.50, implying the stock looks roughly 42.6% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 56/100 (solid quality), in the Energy sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).

Over the trailing twelve months, HELLENiQ ENERGY Holdings generated revenue of €11.6B at a net margin of 3.9%. Revenue declined 0.5% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 15.5%. Net debt stands at €2.1B. Fundamentals as of Jul 17, 2026

Our scenario range runs from €5.96 (bear case) to €8.02 (bull case); at €13.07, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades near its 52-week high and 79% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at -11% fair-value upside, at -43%, ELPE screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model BearBaseBull Evidence
Highest evidence
Residual Income €6.88 €7.12 €7.28 76
ROIC Compounder €0.3600 €1.14 72
Growth-Adj P/E €4.28 €6.12 €7.96 68
All 18 models by family
DCF Models
5Y Revenue Exit €1.29 €5.89 €12.74 39
5Y EBITDA Exit €0.4800 €4.52 €9.97 41
5Y P/E Exit €0.2400 €3.00 38
10Y Revenue Exit €2.61 €6.64 36
10Y EBITDA Exit €1.74 €4.94 37
10Y P/E Exit €0.6800 35
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd €3.86 €5.76 €6.83 54
EPV €0.3600 €1.14 59
Multiples
P/E Multiple €5.96 €7.94 €9.93 63
P/S Multiple €7.23 €9.64 €12.05 58
P/B Multiple €7.23 €9.64 €12.05 55
EV/EBIT €3.18 €6.33 €9.49 53
EV/EBITDA €4.48 €8.07 €11.65 54
EV/Revenue €5.20 €10.12 €15.04 43
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) €4.37 €5.86 €8.74 50
Economic Profit
Residual Income €6.88 €7.12 €7.28 76
ROIC Compounder €0.3600 €1.14 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E €4.28 €6.12 €7.96 68

Widest divergence: Multiples (€8.07) versus Earnings-Based (€0.3600). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).

Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) €11.6B
Revenue growth (YoY) -0.5%
Net margin 3.9%
Return on equity 15.5%
Free cash flow €94.2M FY2025
P/E ratio 7.1
More key figures
Operating margin 14.9%
EPS (TTM) €1.47
Dividend yield 5.8%
EPS growth (YoY) +3,000%
Net debt €2.1B FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 17, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 56/100

Of which business quality 52 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 92

Profitability 41
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 45
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 38
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 39
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 94
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 86
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 92
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 100
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 82
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

HELLENiQ ENERGY Holdings S.A., together with its subsidiaries, operates in the energy sector primarily in Greece, the South-eastern Europe, and the East Mediterranean.

Full company description

HELLENiQ ENERGY Holdings S.A., together with its subsidiaries, operates in the energy sector primarily in Greece, the South-eastern Europe, and the East Mediterranean. The company operates through: Refining, Supply and Trading; Marketing; Production and Trading of Petrochemicals; Electricity Generation & Trading and Natural Gas; Exploration and Production of Hydrocarbons; and Electromobility segments. It engages in the refining, supply, and trading of crude oil and petroleum products; marketing of fuels; wholesale trading of oil products; production and marketing of polypropylene, BOPP films, and solvents; trading of imported plastics and chemicals; and production, trading, and supply of power. The company is also involved in the wholesale trading, supply, and distribution of natural gas; generation of electricity through renewable resources; exploration and production of hydrocarbons; and provision of treasury, consulting, and engineering services, as well as IT services. In addition, it engages in the owning of vessels; leasing of other commercial properties, such as highway service stations; operation of petrol stations; production of lubricants; logistics & distribution of LPG; real estate activities; and operation of fuel storage facilities and various underground crude oil pipelines. The company was formerly known as Hellenic Petroleum Holdings Societe Anonyme and changed its name to HELLENiQ ENERGY Holdings S.A. in September 2022. HELLENiQ ENERGY Holdings S.A. was founded in 1998 and is based in Marousi, Greece.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

HELLENiQ ENERGY Holdings reported revenue of €11.6B in FY2025 versus €9.2B in FY2021, a compound +5.9%/yr. Reported net income was €173M in FY2025, compounding −15.3%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 75/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
€11.6B
Latest YoY
−9.0%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y)
−7.1%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y)
+15.0%
Avg. growth/yr (11Y)
+1.9%
Revenue +5.9%/yr
FY21 €9.2B
FY22 €14.5B
FY23 €12.8B
FY24 €12.8B
FY25 €11.6B
Net income −15.3%/yr
FY21 €337M
FY22 €890M
FY23 €478M
FY24 €59.8M
FY25 €173M

ELPE screens 43% overvalued. Compare with Saudi Arabian Oil Company →

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "HELLENiQ ENERGY Holdings Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/ELPE

Earlier news

External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.

Peer Group

Oil & Gas Integrated · 54 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 56 · Below median
Fair Value upside −43% · Bottom 25%
Return on equity (TTM) 16% · Top 25%
Return on assets 6% · Above median
Net margin (TTM) 4% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM) 15% · Above median
Revenue growth -1% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM) 5.8% · Top 25%
Debt / equity 1.04× · Higher than 75% of peers

Valuation Multiples vs Oil & Gas Integrated median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 7.1× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
P/B 1.38× · Cheaper than median
P/S (TTM) 0.32× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
P/FCF 39.0× · Pricier than 75% of peers
EV/EBITDA 5.5× · Pricier than median

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 0 · sector 16
FUTURE 0 · sector 7
PAST 62 · sector 45
HEALTH 48 · sector 87
DIVIDEND 100 · sector 79

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

Oil & gas

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

Similar stocks

10 more Oil & Gas Integrated stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 17, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Saudi Arabian Oil Company 2222 26.72 SAR 20.14 SAR -25%
Exxon Mobil Corporation XOM $144.51 $90.37 -37%
Chevron Corporation CHEV C$22.88 C$7.97 -65%
PetroChina Company 601857 ¥10.29 ¥16.51 +60%
Shell plc SHELL €38.04 €46.09 +21%
TotalEnergies SE TTE C$13.80 C$7.92 -43%
Petróleo Brasileiro S.A PETR3 12,540 ARS 30,914 ARS +147%
BP p.l.c., an integrated energy company, BP $40.83 $12.71 -69%
China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation 600028 ¥5.03 ¥4.46 -11%
Equinor ASA EQNR $36.19 $34.53 -5%

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Frequently asked questions

Is HELLENiQ ENERGY Holdings (ELPE) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Jul 17, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €7.50 versus a price of €13.07, about −43% (overvalued).
What is the fair value of ELPE?
Our model-based fair value for HELLENiQ ENERGY Holdings is €7.50 (as of Jul 17, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is €13.07.
What is the quality score of ELPE?
HELLENiQ ENERGY Holdings has a Quality Score of 56/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of HELLENiQ ENERGY Holdings (ELPE)?
HELLENiQ ENERGY Holdings reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €11.6B (latest available figure, as of Jul 17, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of ELPE?
The net profit margin of HELLENiQ ENERGY Holdings is about 3.9%, meaning it keeps roughly 3.9% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does HELLENiQ ENERGY Holdings pay a dividend?
HELLENiQ ENERGY Holdings currently shows a dividend yield of about 5.77% relative to its recent price (as of Jul 17, 2026).

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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