HELLENiQ ENERGY Holdings (ELPE) Fair Value & Analysis
Energy · GR · Market cap €3.2B
Fair value as of: Jul 17, 2026
From 18 valuation models · updated 24 days ago
Share price +21.6% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 43% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (€8.02). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (56/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 17, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range €3.69 – €13.11 · fair‑value band €5.96 – €8.02 · the €13.07 price screens above the €7.50 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 17, 2026.
Analysis
HELLENiQ ENERGY Holdings (ELPE) currently trades at €13.07, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €7.50, implying the stock looks roughly 42.6% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 56/100 (solid quality), in the Energy sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, HELLENiQ ENERGY Holdings generated revenue of €11.6B at a net margin of 3.9%. Revenue declined 0.5% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 15.5%. Net debt stands at €2.1B. Fundamentals as of Jul 17, 2026
Our scenario range runs from €5.96 (bear case) to €8.02 (bull case); at €13.07, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades near its 52-week high and 79% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at -11% fair-value upside, at -43%, ELPE screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 18 models by family
Widest divergence: Multiples (€8.07) versus Earnings-Based (€0.3600). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 17, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 52 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 92
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
HELLENiQ ENERGY Holdings S.A., together with its subsidiaries, operates in the energy sector primarily in Greece, the South-eastern Europe, and the East Mediterranean.
Full company description
HELLENiQ ENERGY Holdings S.A., together with its subsidiaries, operates in the energy sector primarily in Greece, the South-eastern Europe, and the East Mediterranean. The company operates through: Refining, Supply and Trading; Marketing; Production and Trading of Petrochemicals; Electricity Generation & Trading and Natural Gas; Exploration and Production of Hydrocarbons; and Electromobility segments. It engages in the refining, supply, and trading of crude oil and petroleum products; marketing of fuels; wholesale trading of oil products; production and marketing of polypropylene, BOPP films, and solvents; trading of imported plastics and chemicals; and production, trading, and supply of power. The company is also involved in the wholesale trading, supply, and distribution of natural gas; generation of electricity through renewable resources; exploration and production of hydrocarbons; and provision of treasury, consulting, and engineering services, as well as IT services. In addition, it engages in the owning of vessels; leasing of other commercial properties, such as highway service stations; operation of petrol stations; production of lubricants; logistics & distribution of LPG; real estate activities; and operation of fuel storage facilities and various underground crude oil pipelines. The company was formerly known as Hellenic Petroleum Holdings Societe Anonyme and changed its name to HELLENiQ ENERGY Holdings S.A. in September 2022. HELLENiQ ENERGY Holdings S.A. was founded in 1998 and is based in Marousi, Greece.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
HELLENiQ ENERGY Holdings reported revenue of €11.6B in FY2025 versus €9.2B in FY2021, a compound +5.9%/yr. Reported net income was €173M in FY2025, compounding −15.3%/yr from FY2021.
ELPE screens 43% overvalued. Compare with Saudi Arabian Oil Company →
Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- HelleniQ Energy to Grant Chevron (CVX) 70% Interest in Block 10 Offshore Concession
- Chevron (CVX) Buys 70% Of Greece Offshore Block 10 With HELLENiQ ENERGY
- HELLENiQ ENERGY Expands Chevron Partnership in an Offshore Block in the Ionian Sea
Peer Group
Oil & Gas Integrated · 54 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Oil & Gas Integrated median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Oil & Gas Integrated stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 17, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Saudi Arabian Oil Company 2222 | 26.72 SAR | 20.14 SAR | -25% |
| Exxon Mobil Corporation XOM | $144.51 | $90.37 | -37% |
| Chevron Corporation CHEV | C$22.88 | C$7.97 | -65% |
| PetroChina Company 601857 | ¥10.29 | ¥16.51 | +60% |
| Shell plc SHELL | €38.04 | €46.09 | +21% |
| TotalEnergies SE TTE | C$13.80 | C$7.92 | -43% |
| Petróleo Brasileiro S.A PETR3 | 12,540 ARS | 30,914 ARS | +147% |
| BP p.l.c., an integrated energy company, BP | $40.83 | $12.71 | -69% |
| China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation 600028 | ¥5.03 | ¥4.46 | -11% |
| Equinor ASA EQNR | $36.19 | $34.53 | -5% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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