EVN AG (EVN) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 5, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of EVN AG stock €22.61, price €30.65, that is 26.2% below the price, quality 53 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 23 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 5, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range €13.77 – €30.65 · fair‑value band €16.87 – €33.27 · the €30.65 price screens above the €22.61 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 5, 2026.
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EVN AG provides energy and environmental services in Austria, Bulgaria, North Macedonia, Croatia, Germany, and Albania. The company operates through Energy, Generation, Networks, South East Europe, Environmental, and All Other segments.
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It is involved in energy generation; operation of distribution networks; production and supply of electricity, natural gas, and heat to end customers, as well as investment activities.
The company also offers environmental services, such as supply of drinking water; procures, trades, markets, and sells electricity, natural gas, and primary energy carriers to end customers and wholesale markets.
In addition, it plans, constructs, finances, and/or operates water supply, wastewater treatment, and thermal waste utilization services; provides internet and telecommunication services; generates electricity from renewable energy, hydropower, and photovoltaics; and constructs and operates natural gas networks.
The company was founded in 1922 and is based in Maria Enzersdorf, Austria. EVN AG operates as a subsidiary of NÖ Landes-Beteiligungsholding GmbH.
Stock analysis
EVN AG (EVN) currently trades at €30.65, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €22.61, 26% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of €35.79 per share, and 5 of the 21 models we run sit above the €30.65 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at €12.04, and 16 of the 21 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: €16.87 (bear) to €33.27 (bull), the price of €30.65 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 53/100 (solid quality), in the Utilities sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
EVN AG reported revenue of €3.0B in FY2025 versus €2.4B in FY2021, a compound +5.8%/yr. Reported net income was €437M in FY2025, compounding +7.6%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap €5.5B Mid · P/E ratio 10.9 · P/S ratio 1.78 · EPS (TTM) €2.80 · Dividend yield 2.9% · Net margin 17.2% · Return on equity 8.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) 3.2%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 47 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades at its 52-week high and 22% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Utilities peers we cover trades at −48% fair-value upside, at −26%, EVN screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear€16.87Fair Value €22.61Bull€33.27
Price €30.65 · Downside -26.2%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 12 months old). Earnings retained since then (€1.90 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
+3.8%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−9.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.3%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +3.4% a year
Revenue growth 23 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.4%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+10.5%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+7.6%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.9%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.7.6% vs 11.1%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.9% → 12%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+58.2%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+2.5%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (euro area: IMF forecast 2.2% a year to 2030, 2.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +54.8% a year for the price and +0.3% for the forecasts.
AI conclusion: Regulated networks provide steady results as the main strength, while volatile weather-sensitive generation stands out as the key limitation.
Main risk: Higher regulatory and political risks plus elevated grid losses in Bulgaria and North Macedonia could squeeze margins and cash flows from operations there that contribute over 20% of group EBITDA.
Bull case: EVN could strengthen its regulated network base in Lower Austria and use digital tools to integrate renewables efficiently, offsetting any margin pressure from SEE operations through higher stable EBITDA shares.
Bear case: Persistent regulatory headwinds in South-Eastern Europe combined with stretched cash flows from the large capex programme could erode overall profitability and force asset sales or slower growth in core markets.
EVN outlined at its early October Capital Markets Day an annual one-billion-euro investment program through 2030 centered on networks, renewables, battery storage and charging infrastructure. Regulated networks already deliver steady results while weather-sensitive generation remains volatile. Will the scale of spending on flexible assets strengthen long-term earnings power more than it weighs on near-term cash flows, or will execution risks dominate?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Utilities - Diversified · 49 stocks
Beats the industry median on 8/15 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score53 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−26.2% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)8.1% · Below median
Return on assets4.0% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months)17.2% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months)5.7% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)2.7% · Below median
Dividend yield (12 months)2.9% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.19× · Lowest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Utilities - Diversified median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)10.9× · Cheapest 25%
P/B0.86× · Cheapest 25%
P/S (12 months)1.78× · Pricier than median
Price / free cash flow211.8× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA9.7× · Pricier than median
PEG2.16× · Cheaper than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)14· sector 32
PAST (return on equity)32· sector 35
HEALTH (low debt)91· sector 48
DIVIDEND (yield)59· sector 82
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "EVN AG Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/EVN.VI
Frequently asked questions
Is EVN AG (EVN) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 5, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €22.61 versus a price of €30.65, about 26% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of EVN?
Our model-based fair value for EVN AG is €22.61 (as of Nov 5, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: €30.65.
What is the quality score of EVN?
EVN AG has a Quality Score of 53/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for EVN AG (EVN)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of €22.61 (as of Nov 5, 2026) from 23 valuation models. Cautious scenario €16.87, optimistic scenario €33.27. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the EVN AG stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at €22.61, about 26% lower versus a price of €30.65 (overvalued). Cautious scenario €16.87, optimistic scenario €33.27. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of EVN AG (EVN)?
EVN AG reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €3.1B (latest available figure, as of Nov 5, 2026).
Does EVN AG pay a dividend?
EVN AG currently shows a dividend yield of 2.94% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 5, 2026).
What growth is priced into EVN AG (EVN)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, EVN AG would have to grow free cash flow by +58.2 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.0 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +7.3 % per year. As of Nov 5, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of EVN use?
Our models discount EVN AG at 9.0 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.66, country premium for Austria. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For EVN AG that is +58.2 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.0 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has EVN AG (EVN) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at EVN AG grew +7.3 % a year. The price currently implies +58.2 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of EVN AG (EVN) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.3 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into EVN AG (+58.2 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of EVN AG (EVN)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 0.47 %: that much free cash flow EVN AG produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.0 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of EVN AG (EVN)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For EVN AG it is €22.61 per share (as of Nov 5, 2026), against a price of €30.65. It is the blended result of 23 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is EVN AG stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 5, 2026, EVN trades above its calculated fair value: price €30.65, fair value €22.61, a gap of about −26% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of EVN?
No. The price is what the market pays today (€30.65); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (€22.61). For EVN AG the two are €8.04 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is EVN AG worth?
The market values EVN AG at about €5.5B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 5, 2026). Per share that is €30.65; our models calculate a fair value of €22.61 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about EVN?
Our models span a range for EVN AG: cautious scenario €16.87, base €22.61, optimistic €33.27 per share (as of Nov 5, 2026, price €30.65). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of EVN?
EVN AG trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 10.9 (as of Nov 5, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of €22.61 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 10 fiscal years (2016 to 2025), reported earnings, FY2025 ex one-offs: 11.3. Other multiples: PEG 2.2, P/B 0.9, P/S 1.8, EV/EBITDA 9.7.
What is the PEG ratio of EVN?
The PEG ratio of EVN AG is 2.16 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 5, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of EVN AG (EVN)?
Balance-sheet figures for EVN AG (as of Nov 5, 2026): return on equity 8.1%, debt of 0.19 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 53/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is EVN from its 52-week high?
EVN AG trades at €30.65, at its 52-week high of €30.65 and 22% above the low of €25.06 (as of Nov 5, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of €22.61 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to EVN AG?
From the same area (Utilities) we also value Iberdrola, S.A, Enel SpA, Engie SA, Sempra, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is EVN AG stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 5, 2026: price €30.65, calculated fair value €22.61 (−26%), Quality Score 53/100, from 23 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of EVN calculated?
We run EVN AG through 23 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of €22.61, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.5% above its aggregate fair value. EVN AG itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of EVN AG (EVN)?
The closing price on Nov 5, 2026 was €30.65. Our model-based fair value is €22.61, about 26% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with EVN AG right now?
Solid but not exceptional quality (53/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range (€16.87 to €33.27) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of EVN AG (EVN) come from?
Earnings per share at EVN AG grew +14.4 % a year from 2015 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +5.1 %, EBIT margin +4.5 %, tax rate −0.1 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +4.3 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of EVN AG
How large is the market capitalisation of EVN AG (EVN)?
The market capitalisation of EVN AG is €5.5B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of EVN AG (EVN)?
The price-to-sales ratio of EVN AG is 1.78 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of EVN AG (EVN)?
Earnings per share at EVN AG are €2.80 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 10.9). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of EVN AG (EVN)?
The dividend yield of EVN AG is 2.9% (payout 32.1%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of EVN AG (EVN)?
The net margin of EVN AG is 17.2% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of EVN AG (EVN)?
The return on equity (ROE) of EVN AG is 8.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of EVN AG (EVN)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of EVN AG is 3.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of EVN AG (EVN)?
The operating margin of EVN AG is 5.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at EVN AG (EVN)?
Revenue at EVN AG is growing +2.7% versus a year earlier (3y avg −9.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at EVN AG (EVN)?
Earnings per share at EVN AG are growing +15.5% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does EVN AG (EVN) carry?
The net debt of EVN AG is €1.1B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 43.9 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Nov 5, 2026