Foresight Financial (FGFH) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Foresight Financial stock $32.36, price $50.30, that is 35.7% below the price, quality 54 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 6 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 8, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $19.26 – $51.00 · fair‑value band $24.27 – $40.45 · the $50.30 price screens above the $32.36 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 8, 2026.
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Foresight Financial Group, Inc. provides banking services to individuals and businesses through its facilities in the Rockford, Freeport, German Valley, Davis, Lena, Winnebago, Pecatonica, Kankakee, Loves Park, Machesney Park, Belvidere, and Herscher, and Illinois areas.
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Its deposit products include demand deposits and certificates of deposit; and loan portfolio comprises agricultural, agribusiness, commercial, real estate, and installment loans. It serves individuals and businesses. Foresight Financial Group, Inc. is based in Winnebago, Illinois.
Stock analysis
Foresight Financial (FGFH) currently trades at $50.30, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $32.36, 36% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Economic Profit group reads highest at a median of $33.23 per share, and 0 of the 6 models we run sit above the $50.30 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $8.33, and 6 of the 6 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $24.27 (bear) to $40.45 (bull), the price of $50.30 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 54/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Foresight Financial reported revenue of $58.1M in FY2025 versus $50.7M in FY2021, a compound +3.5%/yr. Reported net income was $7.9M in FY2025, compounding −8.8%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $181M Micro · P/E ratio 12.2 · P/S ratio 3.46 · EPS (TTM) $4.13 · Dividend yield 1.2% · Net margin 28.8% · Return on equity 9.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) 1.2% (5-year average).
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 57 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 1% below its 52-week high and 32% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −28% fair-value upside, at −36%, FGFH screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$24.27Fair Value $32.36Bull$40.45
Price $50.30 · Downside -35.7%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then ($3.01 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.62/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+3.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.4%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.5%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +4.5% a year
Revenue growth 25 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.3%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Banks - Regional · 996 stocks
Beats the industry median on 2/13 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score54 · Below median
Fair Value upside−35.7% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)9.0% · Below median
Return on assets0.5% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (12 months)28.8% · Below median
Operating margin (12 months)33.9% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)14.9% · Above median
Dividend yield (12 months)1.2% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.31× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Banks - Regional median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)12.2× · Pricier than median
P/B1.07× · Cheaper than median
P/S (12 months)3.46× · Pricier than median
Price / free cash flow (fiscal year)12.2× · Pricier than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 8
FUTURE (revenue growth)75· sector 47
PAST (return on equity)36· sector 43
HEALTH (low debt)–
DIVIDEND (yield)25· sector 53
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
HEALTH: for banks, insurers and similar financial firms borrowed money is part of the business, so we do not rate debt here.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Foresight Financial Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/FGFH
Frequently asked questions
Is Foresight Financial (FGFH) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 8, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $32.36 versus a price of $50.30, about 36% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of FGFH?
Our model-based fair value for Foresight Financial is $32.36 (as of Nov 8, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $50.30.
What is the quality score of FGFH?
Foresight Financial has a Quality Score of 54/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Foresight Financial (FGFH)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $32.36 (as of Nov 8, 2026) from 6 valuation models. Cautious scenario $24.27, optimistic scenario $40.45. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Foresight Financial stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $32.36, about 36% lower versus a price of $50.30 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $24.27, optimistic scenario $40.45. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Foresight Financial (FGFH)?
Foresight Financial reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $52.4M (latest available figure, as of Nov 8, 2026).
Does Foresight Financial pay a dividend?
Foresight Financial currently shows a dividend yield of 1.23% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 8, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Foresight Financial (FGFH) and when is the ex-dividend date?
Foresight Financial pays a dividend of $0.62 per share a year, a dividend yield of 1.2%. The last ex-dividend date was Aug 14, 2026. A dividend has been paid every year since 2005. The payout ratio is 15.0% of earnings. Our assessment: Low payout. A low payout ratio: the dividend takes at most 60 % of earnings. Whether free cash flow covers it as well, we cannot see for this company.
What is the intrinsic value of Foresight Financial (FGFH)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Foresight Financial it is $32.36 per share (as of Nov 8, 2026), against a price of $50.30. It is the blended result of 6 valuation models in 4 families (Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Economic Profit).
Is Foresight Financial stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 8, 2026, FGFH trades above its calculated fair value: price $50.30, fair value $32.36, a gap of about −36% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of FGFH?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($50.30); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($32.36). For Foresight Financial the two are $17.94 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Foresight Financial worth?
The market values Foresight Financial at about $181M (market capitalisation, as of Nov 8, 2026). Per share that is $50.30; our models calculate a fair value of $32.36 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about FGFH?
Our models span a range for Foresight Financial: cautious scenario $24.27, base $32.36, optimistic $40.45 per share (as of Nov 8, 2026, price $50.30). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of FGFH?
Foresight Financial trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 12.2 (as of Nov 8, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $32.36 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 7 fiscal years (2019 to 2025), reported earnings: 10.3. Other multiples: P/B 1.1, P/S 3.5.
How solid is the balance sheet of Foresight Financial (FGFH)?
Balance-sheet figures for Foresight Financial (as of Nov 8, 2026): return on equity 9.0%, debt of 0.31 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 54/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is FGFH from its 52-week high?
Foresight Financial trades at $50.30, about 1% below its 52-week high of $51.00 and 32% above the low of $38.24 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $32.36 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Foresight Financial?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value China Merchants Bank Co, DBS Group, UniCredit S.p.A, Mizuho Financial Group, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Foresight Financial stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 8, 2026: price $50.30, calculated fair value $32.36 (−36%), Quality Score 54/100, from 6 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of FGFH calculated?
We run Foresight Financial through 6 models from 4 families: Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Economic Profit. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of $32.36 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. Foresight Financial itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Foresight Financial (FGFH)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was $50.30. Our model-based fair value is $32.36, about 36% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Foresight Financial right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($40.45). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (54/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Key figures of Foresight Financial
How large is the market capitalisation of Foresight Financial (FGFH)?
The market capitalisation of Foresight Financial is $181M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Foresight Financial (FGFH)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Foresight Financial is 3.46 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Foresight Financial (FGFH)?
Earnings per share at Foresight Financial are $4.13 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 12.2). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Foresight Financial (FGFH)?
The dividend yield of Foresight Financial is 1.2% (payout 15.0%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Foresight Financial (FGFH)?
The net margin of Foresight Financial is 28.8% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Foresight Financial (FGFH)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Foresight Financial is 9.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Foresight Financial (FGFH)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Foresight Financial is 1.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Foresight Financial (FGFH)?
The operating margin of Foresight Financial is 33.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Foresight Financial (FGFH)?
Revenue at Foresight Financial is growing +14.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg +2.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Foresight Financial (FGFH)?
Earnings per share at Foresight Financial are growing +168% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Foresight Financial (FGFH) generate?
The free cash flow of Foresight Financial is $14.9M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Foresight Financial (FGFH) carry?
The net debt of Foresight Financial is $26.3M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 1.8 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Nov 8, 2026