Firefly AB (publ) (FIRE) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Firefly AB (publ) stock SEK 149, price SEK 165, that is 9.5% below the price, quality 68 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 8, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range kr 60.39 – kr 217.46 · fair‑value band kr 104.53 – kr 208.03 · the kr 165.00 price screens above the kr 149.33 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 8, 2026.
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Firefly AB (publ) develops and sells industrial fire prevention and protection systems for the process industry worldwide.
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The company offers customized fire prevention systems and components that monitors industrial manufacturing processes in various areas, such as wood processing, tissue paper, food, biofuel, thermal power plant and recycling.
It also offers systems for monitoring infrastructure subway, train, road, and cable tunnel systems. The company also offers commissioning, technical support, maintenance, and training services, as well as spare parts management.
It serves wood panel, port facility, power generation, bioenergy, food, pulp and paper, and hygiene industries. The company sells its products and services directly to customers through distributors. Firefly AB (publ) was incorporated in 1967 and is based in Stockholm, Sweden.
Stock analysis
Firefly AB (publ) (FIRE) currently trades at kr 165.00, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is kr 149.33, 9% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of kr 171.06 per share, and 10 of the 26 models we run sit above the kr 165.00 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at kr 29.75, and 16 of the 26 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: kr 104.53 (bear) to kr 208.03 (bull), the price of kr 165.00 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 68/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Firefly AB (publ) reported revenue of 503M SEK in FY2025 versus 300M SEK in FY2021, a compound +13.8%/yr. Reported net income was 47.6M SEK in FY2025, compounding +26.1%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 990M SEK (≈ $100M) Micro · P/E ratio 18.2 · P/S ratio 1.90 · EPS (TTM) kr 9.08 · Dividend yield 3.6% · Net margin 10.5% · Return on equity 36.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) 20.4% (5-year average).
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 67 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 17% below its 52-week high and 6% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −31% fair-value upside, at −9%, FIRE screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bearkr 104.53Fair Value kr 149.33Bullkr 208.03
Price kr 165.00 · Downside -9.5%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then (kr 2.64 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.100/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+1.2%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.4%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+13.7%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +10.9% a year
Revenue growth 17 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+11.2%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+30.3%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+26.7%
Dividend (yield on the price)3.6%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.26.7% vs 25.7%, steady
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.7% → 14%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Price in line with expectations
The price assumes about as much growth as the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+12.7%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (Sweden: IMF forecast 2.0% a year to 2030, 2.9% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +10.5% a year for the price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Building Products & Equipment · 255 stocks
Beats the industry median on 10/14 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score68 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−9.5% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)36.2% · Top 25%
Return on assets15.5% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months)10.5% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months)8.7% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)30.1% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (12 months)3.6% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.02× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Building Products & Equipment median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)18.2× · Cheaper than median
P/B5.24× · Priciest 25%
P/S (12 months)1.90× · Pricier than median
Price / free cash flow (fiscal year)21.6× · Pricier than median
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Firefly AB (publ) Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/FIRE
Frequently asked questions
Is Firefly AB (publ) (FIRE) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 8, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of kr 149.33 versus a price of kr 165.00, about 9% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of FIRE?
Our model-based fair value for Firefly AB (publ) is kr 149.33 (as of Nov 8, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: kr 165.00.
What is the quality score of FIRE?
Firefly AB (publ) has a Quality Score of 68/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Firefly AB (publ) (FIRE)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of kr 149.33 (as of Nov 8, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario kr 104.53, optimistic scenario kr 208.03. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Firefly AB (publ) stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at kr 149.33, about 9% lower versus a price of kr 165.00 (overvalued). Cautious scenario kr 104.53, optimistic scenario kr 208.03. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Firefly AB (publ) (FIRE)?
Firefly AB (publ) reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 521M SEK (latest available figure, as of Nov 8, 2026).
Does Firefly AB (publ) pay a dividend?
Firefly AB (publ) currently shows a dividend yield of 3.64% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 8, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Firefly AB (publ) (FIRE) and when is the ex-dividend date?
Firefly AB (publ) pays a dividend of kr 6.00 per share a year, a dividend yield of 3.6%. The last ex-dividend date was May 8, 2026. A dividend has been paid every year since 2021. The payout ratio is 66.1% of earnings. Free cash flow covers the dividend 1.27 times. Our assessment: Sustainable. Payout and cash coverage both look sustainable.
What growth is priced into Firefly AB (publ) (FIRE)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Firefly AB (publ) would have to grow free cash flow by +12.7 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.0 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +13.7 % per year. As of Nov 8, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of FIRE use?
Our models discount Firefly AB (publ) at 11.0 %: a base by market capitalisation (micro), damped by beta 0.25, country premium for Sweden. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Firefly AB (publ) that is +12.7 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (11.0 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Firefly AB (publ) (FIRE) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Firefly AB (publ) grew +13.7 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of +12.7 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Firefly AB (publ) (FIRE) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +7.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Firefly AB (publ) (+12.7 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Firefly AB (publ) (FIRE)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 4.63 %: that much free cash flow Firefly AB (publ) produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.0 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Firefly AB (publ) (FIRE)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Firefly AB (publ) it is kr 149.33 per share (as of Nov 8, 2026), against a price of kr 165.00. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models in 8 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is Firefly AB (publ) stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 8, 2026, FIRE trades above its calculated fair value: price kr 165.00, fair value kr 149.33, a gap of about −9% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of FIRE?
No. The price is what the market pays today (kr 165.00); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (kr 149.33). For Firefly AB (publ) the two are kr 15.67 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Firefly AB (publ) worth?
The market values Firefly AB (publ) at about 990M SEK (market capitalisation, as of Nov 8, 2026). Per share that is kr 165.00; our models calculate a fair value of kr 149.33 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about FIRE?
Our models span a range for Firefly AB (publ): cautious scenario kr 104.53, base kr 149.33, optimistic kr 208.03 per share (as of Nov 8, 2026, price kr 165.00). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of FIRE?
Firefly AB (publ) trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 18.2 (as of Nov 8, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of kr 149.33 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 10 fiscal years (2016 to 2025), reported earnings: 23.6. Other multiples: P/B 5.2, P/S 1.9, EV/EBITDA 12.6.
How solid is the balance sheet of Firefly AB (publ) (FIRE)?
Balance-sheet figures for Firefly AB (publ) (as of Nov 8, 2026): return on equity 36.2%, debt of 0.02 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 68/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is FIRE from its 52-week high?
Firefly AB (publ) trades at kr 165.00, about 17% below its 52-week high of kr 198.63 and 6% above the low of kr 156.00 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of kr 149.33 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Firefly AB (publ)?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Johnson Controls International plc, Trane Technologies plc, Carrier Global Corporation, Compagnie de Saint-Gobain S.A, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Firefly AB (publ) stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 8, 2026: price kr 165.00, calculated fair value kr 149.33 (−9%), Quality Score 68/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of FIRE calculated?
We run Firefly AB (publ) through 26 models from 8 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of kr 149.33 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. Firefly AB (publ) itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Firefly AB (publ) (FIRE)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was kr 165.00. Our model-based fair value is kr 149.33, about 9% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Firefly AB (publ) right now?
A fairly wide model range (kr 104.53 to kr 208.03) leaves room in how you read the outcome. The price sits in the upper half of our model range, so the margin of safety is thin. The data supports the verdict: every model runs on fully documented inputs.
Where does the earnings growth of Firefly AB (publ) (FIRE) come from?
Earnings per share at Firefly AB (publ) grew +21.7 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +13.2 %, EBIT margin +5.9 %, tax rate −0.1 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +1.5 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Firefly AB (publ)
How large is the market capitalisation of Firefly AB (publ) (FIRE)?
The market capitalisation of Firefly AB (publ) is 990M SEK (≈ $100M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Firefly AB (publ) (FIRE)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Firefly AB (publ) is 1.90 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Firefly AB (publ) (FIRE)?
Earnings per share at Firefly AB (publ) are kr 9.08 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 18.2). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Firefly AB (publ) (FIRE)?
The dividend yield of Firefly AB (publ) is 3.6% (payout 66.1%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Firefly AB (publ) (FIRE)?
The net margin of Firefly AB (publ) is 10.5% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Firefly AB (publ) (FIRE)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Firefly AB (publ) is 36.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Firefly AB (publ) (FIRE)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Firefly AB (publ) is 20.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Firefly AB (publ) (FIRE)?
The operating margin of Firefly AB (publ) is 8.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Firefly AB (publ) (FIRE)?
Revenue at Firefly AB (publ) is growing +30.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg +9.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Firefly AB (publ) (FIRE)?
Earnings per share at Firefly AB (publ) are growing −35.9% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Firefly AB (publ) (FIRE) hold?
Firefly AB (publ) holds more cash than debt, 78.6M SEK net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Broad data
Nov 8, 2026