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Firefly AB (FIRE) Fair Value & Analysis

Industrials · SE · Market cap 969M SEK

FA Firefly AB FIRE · ST
Pricekr 160.00
Fair Valuekr 166.42
Upside+4.0%
Quality68/100
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Healthy Growth
Thin margins · 8.7% net margin
Low debt · generates free cash flow
3.79% dividend yield
Ranks above peers (9/14)
Moderate moat 61/100
Evidence: High Range kr 112.61 – kr 208.03 Share as image

Fair value as of: Jul 18, 2026

From 24 valuation models · updated 24 days ago

Share price −0.3% over the past month.

A solid business, currently priced close to our fair value.

What matters now

  • The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension.
  • A fairly wide model range (kr 112.61 to kr 208.03) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
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Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

kr 217.46 kr 57.96 Fair Value kr 166.42 May 2021 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 18, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range kr 57.96 – kr 217.46 · fair‑value band kr 112.61 – kr 208.03 · the kr 160.00 price screens below the kr 166.42 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 18, 2026.

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Analysis

Firefly AB (FIRE) currently trades at kr 160.00, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is kr 166.42, implying the stock looks roughly 4.0% fairly valued today. The Quality Score stands at 68/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.

Over the trailing twelve months, Firefly AB generated revenue of 492M SEK at a net margin of 8.7%. Revenue declined 9.1% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 22.2%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of 78.6M SEK. Fundamentals as of Jul 18, 2026

Our scenario range runs from kr 112.61 (bear case) to kr 208.03 (bull case); at kr 160.00, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 25% below its 52-week high and 5% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at -33% fair-value upside, at 4%, FIRE screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model Bear Bear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull Bull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
Growth DCF kr 92.12 kr 138.97 kr 206.08 80
Residual Income kr 45.18 kr 61.02 kr 269.15 76
Rev-Margin DCF kr 107.44 kr 179.09 kr 271.28 74
All 24 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF kr 93.34 kr 146.62 kr 227.88 38
Owner Earnings kr 95.83 kr 150.76 kr 234.54 31
5Y Revenue Exit kr 107.44 kr 181.18 kr 281.55 39
5Y EBITDA Exit kr 111.72 kr 189.99 kr 287.98 41
5Y P/E Exit kr 114.08 kr 194.82 kr 287.00 38
10Y Revenue Exit kr 97.73 kr 161.91 kr 260.34 36
10Y EBITDA Exit kr 103.34 kr 167.80 kr 265.24 37
10Y P/E Exit kr 104.77 kr 171.03 kr 264.49 35
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd kr 53.89 kr 248.11 kr 340.64 54
Lynch FV kr 65.24 kr 93.20 kr 121.15 50
PEG = 1.0 kr 65.24 kr 93.20 kr 121.15 46
EPV kr 86.99 kr 97.12 kr 105.56 59
Multiples
P/E Multiple kr 124.82 kr 166.42 kr 208.03 63
P/S Multiple kr 101.04 kr 134.72 kr 168.40 58
P/B Multiple kr 101.04 kr 134.72 kr 168.40 55
EV/EBIT kr 161.42 kr 210.99 kr 260.55 53
EV/EBITDA kr 133.41 kr 173.65 kr 213.88 54
EV/Revenue kr 118.37 kr 163.66 kr 208.94 43
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) kr 15.74 kr 21.10 kr 31.49 50
Growth DCF
Growth DCF kr 92.12 kr 138.97 kr 206.08 80
Rev-Margin DCF kr 107.44 kr 179.09 kr 271.28 74
Economic Profit
Residual Income kr 45.18 kr 61.02 kr 269.15 76
ROIC Compounder kr 93.06 kr 111.06 kr 130.71 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E kr 104.53 kr 149.33 kr 194.12 68

Widest divergence: DCF Models (kr 167.80) versus Asset-Based (kr 21.10). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

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Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) 492M SEK
Revenue growth (YoY) -9.1%
Net margin 8.7%
Return on equity 22.2%
Free cash flow 45.8M SEK FY2025
P/E ratio 22.7
More key figures
Operating margin 10.6%
EPS (TTM) kr 7.12
Dividend yield 3.8%
EPS growth (YoY) -35.9%
Net cash 78.6M SEK FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 18, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 68/100

Of which business quality 69 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 41

Profitability 84
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 34
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 55
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 96
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 47
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 83
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 28
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 16
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 82
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

Firefly AB (publ) develops and sells industrial fire prevention and protection systems for the process industry worldwide. The company offers customized fire prevention systems and components that monitors industrial manufacturing processes in various areas, such as wood processing, tissue paper, food, biofuel, thermal power plant and recycling.

Full company description

Firefly AB (publ) develops and sells industrial fire prevention and protection systems for the process industry worldwide. The company offers customized fire prevention systems and components that monitors industrial manufacturing processes in various areas, such as wood processing, tissue paper, food, biofuel, thermal power plant and recycling. It also offers systems for monitoring infrastructure subway, train, road, and cable tunnel systems. The company also offers commissioning, technical support, maintenance, and training services, as well as spare parts management. It serves wood panel, port facility, power generation, bioenergy, food, pulp and paper, and hygiene industries. The company sells its products and services directly to customers through distributors. Firefly AB (publ) was incorporated in 1967 and is based in Stockholm, Sweden.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Firefly AB reported revenue of kr 503M in FY2025 versus kr 300M in FY2021, a compound +13.8%/yr. Reported net income was kr 47.6M in FY2025, compounding +26.1%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 95/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
503M SEK
Latest YoY
+1.2%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+9.4%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+13.7%
Avg. growth/yr (17Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+11.2%
Revenue +13.8%/yr
FY21 kr 300M
FY22 kr 384M
FY23 kr 478M
FY24 kr 497M
FY25 kr 503M
Net income +26.1%/yr
FY21 kr 18.8M
FY22 kr 34.8M
FY23 kr 45.2M
FY24 kr 54.8M
FY25 kr 47.6M
Character of growth · EPS growth decomposed (2014-2025) +21.7 % p.a.
Revenue per share +13.2 pp

of which total revenue +13.2 pp · buybacks/dilution +0.0 pp

EBIT margin +5.9 pp
Tax rate −0.1 pp
Residual (interest, one-offs) +2.6 pp

Absolute contributions in percentage points per year; they sum to the EPS growth rate. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Firefly AB Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/FIRE

Peer Group

Building Products & Equipment · 247 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 68 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside +4% · Above median
Return on equity (TTM) 22% · Top 25%
Return on assets 11% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM) 9% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM) 11% · Above median
Revenue growth -9% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM) 3.8% · Top 25%
Debt / equity 0.02× · Lower than median

Valuation Multiples vs Building Products & Equipment median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 22.7× · Pricier than median
P/B 5.13× · Pricier than 75% of peers
P/S (TTM) 1.97× · Pricier than 75% of peers
P/FCF 2.2× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA 14.7× · Pricier than median

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 39 · sector 3
FUTURE 0 · sector 9
PAST 89 · sector 23
HEALTH 99 · sector 94
DIVIDEND 76 · sector 28

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

Similar stocks

10 more Building Products & Equipment stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 18, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Trane Technologies plc TT $469.98 $212.34 -55%
Johnson Controls International plc JCI $142.81 $45.65 -68%
Carrier Global Corporation CARR $68.61 $17.35 -75%
Compagnie de Saint-Gobain S.A SGO €76.62 €101.60 +33%
Geberit AG GEBN CHF 523.20 CHF 307.66 -41%
Lennox International Inc LII $543.93 $363.09 -33%
Kingspan Group KRX €87.30 €70.76 -19%
Masco Corporation MAS $78.04 $54.36 -30%
PT Impack Pratama Industri Tbk, IMPC 1,420 IDR 179.76 IDR -87%
NIBE Industrier AB NIBEB kr 36.03 kr 25.37 -30%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Firefly AB (FIRE) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Jul 18, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of kr 166.42 versus a price of kr 160.00, about +4% (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of FIRE?
Our model-based fair value for Firefly AB is kr 166.42 (as of Jul 18, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is kr 160.00.
What is the quality score of FIRE?
Firefly AB has a Quality Score of 68/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Firefly AB (FIRE)?
Firefly AB reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 492M SEK (latest available figure, as of Jul 18, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of FIRE?
The net profit margin of Firefly AB is about 8.7%, meaning it keeps roughly 8.7% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Firefly AB pay a dividend?
Firefly AB currently shows a dividend yield of about 3.65% relative to its recent price (as of Jul 18, 2026).

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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