Firefly AB (FIRE) Fair Value & Analysis
Industrials · SE · Market cap 969M SEK
Fair value as of: Jul 18, 2026
From 24 valuation models · updated 24 days ago
Share price −0.3% over the past month.
A solid business, currently priced close to our fair value.
What matters now
- The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension.
- A fairly wide model range (kr 112.61 to kr 208.03) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 18, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range kr 57.96 – kr 217.46 · fair‑value band kr 112.61 – kr 208.03 · the kr 160.00 price screens below the kr 166.42 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 18, 2026.
Analysis
Firefly AB (FIRE) currently trades at kr 160.00, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is kr 166.42, implying the stock looks roughly 4.0% fairly valued today. The Quality Score stands at 68/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.
Over the trailing twelve months, Firefly AB generated revenue of 492M SEK at a net margin of 8.7%. Revenue declined 9.1% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 22.2%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of 78.6M SEK. Fundamentals as of Jul 18, 2026
Our scenario range runs from kr 112.61 (bear case) to kr 208.03 (bull case); at kr 160.00, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 25% below its 52-week high and 5% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at -33% fair-value upside, at 4%, FIRE screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 24 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models (kr 167.80) versus Asset-Based (kr 21.10). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 18, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 69 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 41
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Firefly AB (publ) develops and sells industrial fire prevention and protection systems for the process industry worldwide. The company offers customized fire prevention systems and components that monitors industrial manufacturing processes in various areas, such as wood processing, tissue paper, food, biofuel, thermal power plant and recycling.
Full company description
Firefly AB (publ) develops and sells industrial fire prevention and protection systems for the process industry worldwide. The company offers customized fire prevention systems and components that monitors industrial manufacturing processes in various areas, such as wood processing, tissue paper, food, biofuel, thermal power plant and recycling. It also offers systems for monitoring infrastructure subway, train, road, and cable tunnel systems. The company also offers commissioning, technical support, maintenance, and training services, as well as spare parts management. It serves wood panel, port facility, power generation, bioenergy, food, pulp and paper, and hygiene industries. The company sells its products and services directly to customers through distributors. Firefly AB (publ) was incorporated in 1967 and is based in Stockholm, Sweden.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Firefly AB reported revenue of kr 503M in FY2025 versus kr 300M in FY2021, a compound +13.8%/yr. Reported net income was kr 47.6M in FY2025, compounding +26.1%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +13.2 pp · buybacks/dilution +0.0 pp
Absolute contributions in percentage points per year; they sum to the EPS growth rate. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
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Peer Group
Building Products & Equipment · 247 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Building Products & Equipment median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Building Products & Equipment stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 18, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Trane Technologies plc TT | $469.98 | $212.34 | -55% |
| Johnson Controls International plc JCI | $142.81 | $45.65 | -68% |
| Carrier Global Corporation CARR | $68.61 | $17.35 | -75% |
| Compagnie de Saint-Gobain S.A SGO | €76.62 | €101.60 | +33% |
| Geberit AG GEBN | CHF 523.20 | CHF 307.66 | -41% |
| Lennox International Inc LII | $543.93 | $363.09 | -33% |
| Kingspan Group KRX | €87.30 | €70.76 | -19% |
| Masco Corporation MAS | $78.04 | $54.36 | -30% |
| PT Impack Pratama Industri Tbk, IMPC | 1,420 IDR | 179.76 IDR | -87% |
| NIBE Industrier AB NIBEB | kr 36.03 | kr 25.37 | -30% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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