Firefly AB (publ) (FIRE) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 24, 2026: fair value of Firefly AB (publ) SEK 149, price SEK 169, upside -11.6%, quality 68 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range kr 59.87 – kr 217.46 · fair‑value band kr 104.53 – kr 211.34 · the kr 169.00 price screens above the kr 149.33 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Firefly AB (publ) develops and sells industrial fire prevention and protection systems for the process industry worldwide. The company offers customized fire prevention systems and components that monitors industrial manufacturing processes in various areas, such as wood processing, tissue paper, food, biofuel, thermal power plant and recycling.
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Firefly AB (publ) develops and sells industrial fire prevention and protection systems for the process industry worldwide. The company offers customized fire prevention systems and components that monitors industrial manufacturing processes in various areas, such as wood processing, tissue paper, food, biofuel, thermal power plant and recycling. It also offers systems for monitoring infrastructure subway, train, road, and cable tunnel systems. The company also offers commissioning, technical support, maintenance, and training services, as well as spare parts management. It serves wood panel, port facility, power generation, bioenergy, food, pulp and paper, and hygiene industries. The company sells its products and services directly to customers through distributors. Firefly AB (publ) was incorporated in 1967 and is based in Stockholm, Sweden.
Stock analysis
Firefly AB (publ) (FIRE) currently trades at kr 169.00, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is kr 149.33, implying the stock looks roughly 13.2% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of kr 163.66 per share, and 7 of the 24 models we run sit above the kr 169.00 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at kr 21.10, and 17 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: kr 104.53 (bear) to kr 211.34 (bull), the price of kr 169.00 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 68/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Firefly AB (publ) reported revenue of 503M SEK in FY2025 versus 300M SEK in FY2021, a compound +13.8%/yr. Reported net income was 47.6M SEK in FY2025, compounding +26.1%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 1.0B SEK (≈ $102M) · P/E ratio 23.7 · P/S ratio 2.24 · EPS (TTM) kr 7.12 · Dividend yield 3.6% · Net margin 9.5% · Return on equity 22.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) 20.4%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 51 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 15% below its 52-week high and 8% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −20% fair-value upside, at −12%, FIRE screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear kr 104.53Fair Value kr 149.33Bull kr 211.34
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (kr 0.8224 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.95/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+1.2%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.4%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+13.7%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +10.9% a year
Revenue growth 17 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+11.2%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+30.3%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+26.7%
Dividend (yield on the price)3.6%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.27% vs 26%, steady
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.7% → 14%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Price in line with expectations
The price assumes about as much growth as the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+13.2%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (Sweden: IMF forecast 2.0% a year to 2030, 2.9% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +11.0% a year for the price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Building Products & Equipment · 253 stocks
Beats the industry median on 9/14 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score68 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−11% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)22% · Top 25%
Return on assets11% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)9% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)11% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−9% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)3.6% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.02× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Building Products & Equipment median · lower = cheaper
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Firefly AB (publ) Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/FIRE
Frequently asked questions
Is Firefly AB (publ) (FIRE) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of kr 149.33 versus a price of kr 169.00, about −12% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of FIRE?
Our model-based fair value for Firefly AB (publ) is kr 149.33 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: kr 169.00.
What is the quality score of FIRE?
Firefly AB (publ) has a Quality Score of 68/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Firefly AB (publ) (FIRE)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of kr 149.33 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario kr 104.53, optimistic scenario kr 211.34. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Firefly AB (publ) stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at kr 149.33, about −12% upside versus a price of kr 169.00 (overvalued). Cautious scenario kr 104.53, optimistic scenario kr 211.34. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Firefly AB (publ) (FIRE)?
Firefly AB (publ) reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 492M SEK (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Firefly AB (publ) pay a dividend?
Firefly AB (publ) currently shows a dividend yield of about 3.55% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Firefly AB (publ) (FIRE)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Firefly AB (publ) would have to grow free cash flow by +13.2 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.0 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +13.7 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of FIRE use?
Our models discount Firefly AB (publ) at 11.0 %: a base by market capitalisation (micro), damped by beta 0.27, country premium for Sweden. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Firefly AB (publ) that is +13.2 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (11.0 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Firefly AB (publ) (FIRE) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Firefly AB (publ) grew +13.7 % a year. The price currently implies +13.2 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Firefly AB (publ) (FIRE) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Firefly AB (publ) (+13.2 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Firefly AB (publ) (FIRE)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 4.52 %: that much free cash flow Firefly AB (publ) produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.0 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Firefly AB (publ) (FIRE)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Firefly AB (publ) it is kr 149.33 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of kr 169.00. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Firefly AB (publ) stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, FIRE trades above its calculated fair value: price kr 169.00, fair value kr 149.33, a gap of about −12% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of FIRE?
No. The price is what the market pays today (kr 169.00); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (kr 149.33). For Firefly AB (publ) the two are kr 19.67 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Firefly AB (publ) worth?
The market values Firefly AB (publ) at about 1.0B SEK (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is kr 169.00; our models calculate a fair value of kr 149.33 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about FIRE?
Our models span a range for Firefly AB (publ): cautious scenario kr 104.53, base kr 149.33, optimistic kr 211.34 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price kr 169.00). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of FIRE?
Firefly AB (publ) trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 23.7 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of kr 149.33 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 5.4, P/S 2.1, EV/EBITDA 15.4.
How solid is the balance sheet of Firefly AB (publ) (FIRE)?
Balance-sheet figures for Firefly AB (publ) (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 22.2%, debt of 0.02 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 68/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is FIRE from its 52-week high?
Firefly AB (publ) trades at kr 169.00, about 15% below its 52-week high of kr 198.63 and 8% above the low of kr 156.00 (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of kr 149.33 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Firefly AB (publ)?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Trane Technologies plc, Johnson Controls International plc, Carrier Global Corporation, Compagnie de Saint-Gobain S.A, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Firefly AB (publ) stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price kr 169.00, calculated fair value kr 149.33 (−12%), Quality Score 68/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of FIRE calculated?
We run Firefly AB (publ) through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of kr 149.33, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Firefly AB (publ) itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Firefly AB (publ) (FIRE)?
The closing price on Sep 24, 2026 was kr 169.00. Our model-based fair value is kr 149.33, about −12% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Firefly AB (publ) right now?
A fairly wide model range (kr 104.53 to kr 211.34) leaves room in how you read the outcome. The price sits in the upper half of our model range, so the margin of safety is thin. The data supports the verdict: every model runs on fully documented inputs.
Where does the earnings growth of Firefly AB (publ) (FIRE) come from?
Earnings per share at Firefly AB (publ) grew +21.7 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +13.2 %, EBIT margin +5.9 %, tax rate −0.1 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +1.5 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Firefly AB (publ)
How large is the market capitalisation of Firefly AB (publ) (FIRE)?
The market capitalisation of Firefly AB (publ) is 1.0B SEK (≈ $102M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Firefly AB (publ) (FIRE)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Firefly AB (publ) is 2.24 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Firefly AB (publ) (FIRE)?
Earnings per share at Firefly AB (publ) are kr 7.12 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 23.7). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Firefly AB (publ) (FIRE)?
The dividend yield of Firefly AB (publ) is 3.6% (payout 84.3%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Firefly AB (publ) (FIRE)?
The net margin of Firefly AB (publ) is 9.5% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Firefly AB (publ) (FIRE)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Firefly AB (publ) is 22.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Firefly AB (publ) (FIRE)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Firefly AB (publ) is 20.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Firefly AB (publ) (FIRE)?
The operating margin of Firefly AB (publ) is 10.6% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Firefly AB (publ) (FIRE)?
Revenue at Firefly AB (publ) is growing −9.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg +9.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Firefly AB (publ) (FIRE)?
Earnings per share at Firefly AB (publ) are growing −35.9% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Firefly AB (publ) (FIRE) hold?
Firefly AB (publ) holds more cash than debt, 78.6M SEK net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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