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GeoPark Ltd (GPRK) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of GeoPark Ltd stock $5.52, price $9.44, that is 41.6% below the price, quality 22 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 16 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

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Energy US · Based in Colombia · ISIN BMG383271050

GL GeoPark Ltd logo Some data Nov 7, 2026

GeoPark Ltd

GPRK · US
Very expensive, weak quality

Our calculation puts a fair price 42% below what the stock costs today.

Solidly profitable · 10.1% net margin (FY2025)
Positive coverage
Last quarter vs. a year ago: revenue +20%, profit +44%.
Mixed Growth (revenue YoY −25.5 %/yr in USD)
1.2% dividend yield · Watch coverage
Moderate moat 53/100
Insiders sold $2.4M (6M)
Some data
Fair value $5.52 · Strongly overvalued (−41.6%)
Quality 22/100
High debt
Negative free cash flow
Trails peers (5/13)
⟳ Cyclical⚠ Dilution
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$14.40 $5.52 Fair Value $5.52 Aug 2021 Nov 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 7, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $5.52 – $14.40 · fair‑value band $4.14 – $6.90 · the $9.44 price screens above the $5.52 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. As of Nov 7, 2026.

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Company profile

GeoPark Limited operates as an oil and natural gas exploration and production company in Chile, Colombia, Brazil, Argentina, Ecuador, and other Latin American countries. It engages in the exploration, development, drilling, and production of oil and natural gas reserves.

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The company was formerly known as GeoPark Holdings Limited and changed its name to GeoPark Limited in May 2009. GeoPark Limited was founded in 2002 and is based in Bogotá, Colombia.

Stock analysis

GeoPark Ltd (GPRK) currently trades at $9.44, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $5.52, 42% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Economic Profit group reads highest at a median of $8.43 per share, and 4 of the 16 models we run sit above the $9.44 price.

Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $0.9400, and 12 of the 16 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.

Scenario range: $4.14 (bear) to $6.90 (bull), the price of $9.44 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 22/100 (below-average quality), in the Energy sector.

Mixed Growth: Spin-off in 2024: revenue and profit before it include the divested business. Growth is measured afresh from 2024.

GeoPark Ltd reported revenue of $493M in FY2025 versus $689M in FY2021, a compound −8.0%/yr. Reported net income was $49.7M in FY2025, compounding −5.1%/yr from FY2021.

Key figures

Market cap $977M Small · P/E ratio 7.6 · P/S ratio 0.76 · EPS (TTM) $1.25 · Dividend yield 1.2% · Net margin 10.1% · Return on equity 28.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) 28.9% (5-year average).

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 53 out of 100 (medium confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 21% below its 52-week high and 36% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at −42%, GPRK screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $4.14 Fair Value $5.52 Bull $6.90
Price $9.44 · Downside -41.6%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.9719 per share) are deliberately not added. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
EPV $7.44 $9.20 $10.70 74
Residual Income $2.78 $3.58 $5.69 74
ROIC Compounder $8.99 $13.28 $18.75 71
All 16 models by family
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd $3.15 $15.62 $21.55 64
Lynch FV $4.21 $6.02 $7.82 61
PEG = 1.0 $4.21 $6.02 $7.82 57
EPV $7.44 $9.20 $10.70 74
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM $1.93 $3.75 $5.54 67
DDM Multi-Stage $1.93 $3.29 $3.97 67
Multiples
P/E Multiple $4.87 $6.49 $8.12 63
P/S Multiple $4.14 $5.52 $6.90 58
P/B Multiple $1.88 $2.51 $3.14 55
EV/EBIT $6.38 $10.00 $13.62 64
EV/EBITDA $6.96 $10.78 $14.59 66
EV/Revenue n/a $1.04 $2.70 50
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $0.7000 $0.9400 $1.40 54
Economic Profit
Residual Income $2.78 $3.58 $5.69 74
ROIC Compounder $8.99 $13.28 $18.75 71
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E $5.32 $7.60 $9.89 67

The fair value above starts from this blend and is adjusted for dilution from new shares.

Open the full fair value analysis →

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 22/100

It rates the business: profits, how they develop, real cash, balance sheet, investing and share count.

Profitability 46
How much profit the company makes from its sales and capital
Quality Growth 6
Are margins and returns getting better?
Cashflow 6
Do the profits arrive as real cash?
Financial strength 25
Debt, balance sheet and risk of trouble
Investment 30
Does it invest with discipline instead of growing at any price?
Low Volatility 63
How calm the share price moves, does not count
Price momentum 55
Price momentum of the last 3 to 12 months, does not count
Near the 52-week high 55
Distance to the 52-week high, does not count
New shares 19
Buys back shares or issues new ones?

Open the full quality analysis →

Insider trades

In the last 6 months, one officer or director sold shares worth $2.4M and none bought.

  • SaleJames Franklin ParkDirector3× since Apr 20, 2026: 320,000 shares, avg. $10.10$3.2MSep 8, 2026

Plus 14 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.

Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.

Source: SEC Form 4, as of Nov 6, 2026. All filings at the SEC ↗

Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 55/100
Spin-off in 2024: revenue and profit before it include the divested business. Growth is measured afresh from 2024.
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+1.4%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+0.2%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.2%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.0.2% vs 21.3%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−28% → 32%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)

GPRK screens overvalued: fair value 42% below the price. Compare with ConocoPhillips explores for, →

Earlier news

News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (100 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation. Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Oil & Gas E&P · 239 stocks

Beats the industry median on 5/13 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 22 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside −41.6% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months) 28.6% · Top 25%
Return on assets 4.8% · Above median
Net margin (12 months) 10.1% · Below median
Operating margin (12 months) 0.0% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY) 19.6% · Below median
Dividend yield (12 months) 1.2% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 2.18× · Highest 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Oil & Gas E&P median · lower = cheaper

P/E (12 months) 7.6× · Cheapest 25%
P/B 3.98× · Priciest 25%
P/S (12 months) 1.93× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA 5.3× · Cheaper than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 22
FUTURE (revenue growth)98 · sector 100
PAST (return on equity)100 · sector 30
HEALTH (low debt)0 · sector 85
DIVIDEND (yield)24 · sector 72

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

Oil & gas

Similar stocks

10 more Oil & Gas E&P stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value Compare
Diamondback Energy, Inc FANG $178.96 $242.64 +36% vs GPRK
CNOOC Limited 0883 HK$23.48 HK$26.76 +14% vs GPRK
EOG Resources, Inc EOG $147.13 $166.94 +13% vs GPRK
Canadian Natural Resources Limited CNQ $48.55 $53.41 +10% vs GPRK
EQT Corporation EQT $49.40 $54.34 +10% vs GPRK
Devon Energy Corporation DVN $42.21 $39.47 −7% vs GPRK
Woodside Energy Group WDS $21.04 $19.39 −8% vs GPRK
ConocoPhillips explores for, COP $136.27 $92.89 −32% vs GPRK
Occidental Petroleum Corporation OXY $56.38 $33.18 −41% vs GPRK
Aker BP ASA AKRBP kr 316.80 kr 127.39 −60% vs GPRK

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GeoPark Ltd: fair value per Fair Value Calculator

Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "GeoPark Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/GPRK

Frequently asked questions

Is GeoPark Ltd (GPRK) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 7, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $5.52 versus a price of $9.44, about 42% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of GPRK?
Our model-based fair value for GeoPark Ltd is $5.52 (as of Nov 7, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $9.44.
What is the quality score of GPRK?
GeoPark Ltd has a Quality Score of 22/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for GeoPark Ltd (GPRK)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $5.52 (as of Nov 7, 2026) from 16 valuation models. Cautious scenario $4.14, optimistic scenario $6.90. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the GeoPark Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $5.52, about 42% lower versus a price of $9.44 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $4.14, optimistic scenario $6.90. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of GeoPark Ltd (GPRK)?
GeoPark Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $507M (latest available figure, as of Nov 7, 2026).
Does GeoPark Ltd pay a dividend?
GeoPark Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of 1.20% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 7, 2026).
How much is the dividend of GeoPark Ltd (GPRK) and when is the ex-dividend date?
GeoPark Ltd pays a dividend of $0.113 per share a year, a dividend yield of 1.2%. The last ex-dividend date was Aug 19, 2026. A dividend has been paid every year since at least 2019. The payout ratio is 9.0% of earnings. Our assessment: Watch coverage. The dividend isn’t fully covered by free cash flow or earnings, part of it is funded from reserves or debt. Fine for now, but worth watching: if it stays uncovered, the dividend could be cut.
What is the intrinsic value of GeoPark Ltd (GPRK)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For GeoPark Ltd it is $5.52 per share (as of Nov 7, 2026), against a price of $9.44. It is the blended result of 16 valuation models in 6 families (Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is GeoPark Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 7, 2026, GPRK trades above its calculated fair value: price $9.44, fair value $5.52, a gap of about −42% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of GPRK?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($9.44); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($5.52). For GeoPark Ltd the two are $3.92 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is GeoPark Ltd worth?
The market values GeoPark Ltd at about $977M (market capitalisation, as of Nov 7, 2026). Per share that is $9.44; our models calculate a fair value of $5.52 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about GPRK?
Our models span a range for GeoPark Ltd: cautious scenario $4.14, base $5.52, optimistic $6.90 per share (as of Nov 7, 2026, price $9.44). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of GPRK?
GeoPark Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 7.6 (as of Nov 7, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $5.52 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 5 fiscal years (2021 to 2025), reported earnings, FY2025 ex one-offs: 5.1. Other multiples: P/B 4.0, P/S 1.9, EV/EBITDA 5.3.
How solid is the balance sheet of GeoPark Ltd (GPRK)?
Balance-sheet figures for GeoPark Ltd (as of Nov 7, 2026): return on equity 28.6%, debt of 2.18 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 22/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is GPRK from its 52-week high?
GeoPark Ltd trades at $9.44, about 21% below its 52-week high of $11.97 and 36% above the low of $6.95 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $5.52 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to GeoPark Ltd?
From the same area (Energy) we also value ConocoPhillips explores for,, CNOOC Limited, Canadian Natural Resources Limited, EOG Resources, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is GeoPark Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 7, 2026: price $9.44, calculated fair value $5.52 (−42%), Quality Score 22/100, from 16 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of GPRK calculated?
We run GeoPark Ltd through 16 models from 6 families: Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of $5.52 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0% above its aggregate fair value. GeoPark Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of GeoPark Ltd (GPRK)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was $9.44. Our model-based fair value is $5.52, about 42% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with GeoPark Ltd right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($6.90). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (22/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.

Key figures of GeoPark Ltd

How large is the market capitalisation of GeoPark Ltd (GPRK)?
The market capitalisation of GeoPark Ltd is $977M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of GeoPark Ltd (GPRK)?
The price-to-sales ratio of GeoPark Ltd is 0.76 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of GeoPark Ltd (GPRK)?
Earnings per share at GeoPark Ltd are $1.25 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 7.6). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of GeoPark Ltd (GPRK)?
The dividend yield of GeoPark Ltd is 1.2% (payout 9.0%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of GeoPark Ltd (GPRK)?
The net margin of GeoPark Ltd is 10.1% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of GeoPark Ltd (GPRK)?
The return on equity (ROE) of GeoPark Ltd is 28.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of GeoPark Ltd (GPRK)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of GeoPark Ltd is 28.9% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
How fast is revenue growing at GeoPark Ltd (GPRK)?
Revenue at GeoPark Ltd is growing +19.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg −22.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at GeoPark Ltd (GPRK)?
Earnings per share at GeoPark Ltd are growing +44.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does GeoPark Ltd (GPRK) generate?
The free cash flow of GeoPark Ltd is −$83.7M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does GeoPark Ltd (GPRK) carry?
The net debt of GeoPark Ltd is $479M (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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