Ginebra San Miguel Inc (GSMI) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Ginebra San Miguel Inc stock PHP 367, price PHP 210, upside +75.1%, quality 70 out of 100. Rating: strongly undervalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 4, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 49.88 PHP – 296.67 PHP · fair‑value band 199.31 PHP – 534.41 PHP · the 209.80 PHP price screens below the 367.33 PHP fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 4, 2026.
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Ginebra San Miguel Inc (GSMI) currently trades at 209.80 PHP, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 367.33 PHP, implying the stock looks roughly 43% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of 600.69 PHP per share, and 20 of the 26 models we run sit above the 209.80 PHP price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at 45.88 PHP, and 6 of the 26 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: 199.31 PHP (bear) to 534.41 PHP (bull), the price of 209.80 PHP sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 70/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Non-Cyclicals sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Ginebra San Miguel Inc reported revenue of 62.5B PHP in FY2024 versus 36.2B PHP in FY2020, a compound +14.6%/yr. Reported net income was 7.3B PHP in FY2024, compounding +27.4%/yr from FY2020.
Key figures
Market cap 12.6B PHP (≈ $199M) · P/E ratio 6.6 · P/S ratio 0.77 · EPS (TTM) 6.63 PHP · Net margin 11.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) 26.6% (5-year average).
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 77 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 29% below its 52-week high and 5% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Non-Cyclicals peers we cover trades at 4% fair-value upside, at 75%, GSMI screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear199.31 PHPFair Value 367.33 PHPBull534.41 PHP
Price 209.80 PHP · Upside +75.1%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2024 figures (about 12 months old). Earnings retained since then (6.63 PHP per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.82/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+16.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+13.7%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+16.6%
Revenue growth 10 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+15.4%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in PHP (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip. Measured in PHP: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+34.1%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+34.1%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Profit margin 2019 to 2024 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.10% → 14%
2024 sits 60% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its sector: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median. (Industry “Beverages” was too small, so the broader sector is used.)Consumer Staples · 1694 stocks
Beats the sector median on 5/7 measures
Overall it ranks above its sector peers.
Valuation
Quality Score70 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+75.1% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on assets23.8% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months)11.6% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months)0.0% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)0.0% · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Consumer Staples median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Ginebra San Miguel Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/GSMI
Frequently asked questions
Is Ginebra San Miguel Inc (GSMI) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 4, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 367.33 PHP versus a price of 209.80 PHP, about +75% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of GSMI?
Our model-based fair value for Ginebra San Miguel Inc is 367.33 PHP (as of Nov 4, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 209.80 PHP.
What is the quality score of GSMI?
Ginebra San Miguel Inc has a Quality Score of 70/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Ginebra San Miguel Inc (GSMI)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 367.33 PHP (as of Nov 4, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario 199.31 PHP, optimistic scenario 534.41 PHP. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Ginebra San Miguel Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 367.33 PHP, about +75% upside versus a price of 209.80 PHP (undervalued). Cautious scenario 199.31 PHP, optimistic scenario 534.41 PHP. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the intrinsic value of Ginebra San Miguel Inc (GSMI)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Ginebra San Miguel Inc it is 367.33 PHP per share (as of Nov 4, 2026), against a price of 209.80 PHP. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models in 8 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is Ginebra San Miguel Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 4, 2026, GSMI trades below its calculated fair value: price 209.80 PHP, fair value 367.33 PHP, a gap of about +75% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of GSMI?
No. The price is what the market pays today (209.80 PHP); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (367.33 PHP). For Ginebra San Miguel Inc the two are 157.53 PHP per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Ginebra San Miguel Inc worth?
The market values Ginebra San Miguel Inc at about 12.6B PHP (market capitalisation, as of Nov 4, 2026). Per share that is 209.80 PHP; our models calculate a fair value of 367.33 PHP per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about GSMI?
Our models span a range for Ginebra San Miguel Inc: cautious scenario 199.31 PHP, base 367.33 PHP, optimistic 534.41 PHP per share (as of Nov 4, 2026, price 209.80 PHP). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of GSMI?
Ginebra San Miguel Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 6.6 (as of Nov 4, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 367.33 PHP is built from several models across several years.
How far is GSMI from its 52-week high?
Ginebra San Miguel Inc trades at 209.80 PHP, about 29% below its 52-week high of 296.67 PHP and 5% above the low of 199.50 PHP (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 367.33 PHP is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Ginebra San Miguel Inc?
From the same area (Consumer Non-Cyclicals) we also value Jinro Distillers Co, FB, JGS, URC, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Ginebra San Miguel Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 4, 2026: price 209.80 PHP, calculated fair value 367.33 PHP (+75%), Quality Score 70/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of GSMI calculated?
We run Ginebra San Miguel Inc through 26 models from 8 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of 367.33 PHP builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. Ginebra San Miguel Inc currently trades 43% below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Ginebra San Miguel Inc (GSMI)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was 209.80 PHP. Our model-based fair value is 367.33 PHP, about +75% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Ginebra San Miguel Inc right now?
The model range is unusually wide (199.31 PHP to 534.41 PHP). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid quality (70/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
Key figures of Ginebra San Miguel Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of Ginebra San Miguel Inc (GSMI)?
The market capitalisation of Ginebra San Miguel Inc is 12.6B PHP (≈ $199M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Ginebra San Miguel Inc (GSMI)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Ginebra San Miguel Inc is 0.77 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Ginebra San Miguel Inc (GSMI)?
Earnings per share at Ginebra San Miguel Inc are 6.63 PHP (price ÷ EPS = P/E 6.6). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Ginebra San Miguel Inc (GSMI)?
The net margin of Ginebra San Miguel Inc is 11.6% (fiscal year 2024). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Ginebra San Miguel Inc (GSMI)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Ginebra San Miguel Inc is 26.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
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