Harmony Gold Mining Co. Ltd. (HAR) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 2, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Harmony Gold Mining Co. Ltd. stock ZAR 258, price ZAR 256, upside +0.8%, quality 69 out of 100. Rating: fairly valued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 1, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range R33.97 – R408.41 · fair‑value band R135.93 – R348.12 · the R255.65 price screens below the R257.78 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 5 fiscal years are left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. As of Nov 1, 2026.
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Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited engages in the exploration, extraction, and processing of mineral properties in South Africa, Papua New Guinea, and Australia. The company explores for gold, uranium, silver, and copper deposits.
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It has nine underground operations in the Witwatersrand Basin; the Kraaipan Greenstone Belt; and various surface source operations in South Africa.
In addition, the company owns interests in the Hidden Valley, an open-pit gold and silver mine; and the Wafi-Golpu project located in Morobe Province in Papua New Guinea. Further, it holds interest in Eva Copper Project located in Queensland, Australia.
Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited was incorporated in 1950 and is based in Randfontein, South Africa.
Stock analysis
Harmony Gold Mining Co. Ltd. (HAR) currently trades at R255.65, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is R257.78, so the stock looks roughly fairly valued today (gap 0.8%).
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of R998.27 per share, and 23 of the 26 models we run sit above the R255.65 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at R77.49, and 3 of the 26 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: R135.93 (bear) to R348.12 (bull), the price of R255.65 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 69/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Harmony Gold Mining Co. Ltd. reported revenue of 109B ZAR in FY2026 versus 42.6B ZAR in FY2022, a compound +26.4%/yr. Reported net income was 29.3B ZAR in FY2026.
Key figures
Market cap 166B ZAR Mid · P/E ratio 5.5 · P/S ratio 1.67 · EPS (TTM) R46.32 · Dividend yield 5.0% · Net margin 29.6% · Return on equity 48.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) 19.0%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 73 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 37% below its 52-week high and 12% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at −6% fair-value upside, at 1%, HAR screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
BearR135.93Fair Value R257.78BullR348.12
Price R255.65 · Upside +0.8%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 4 months old). Earnings retained since then (11.57 ZAR per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.80/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+47.4%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+30.3%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+21.1%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +19.3% a year
Revenue growth 28 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+17.6%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in ZAR (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip. Measured in ZAR: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+74.6%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+69.6%
Dividend (yield on the price)5.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.41.6% vs 43.1%, steady
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.16% → 45%
2026 sits 244% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2021 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+1.3%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+9.0%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (South Africa: IMF forecast 3.3% a year to 2030, 4.9% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −1.9% a year for the price and +5.6% for the forecasts.
AI conclusion: Strong cash conversion and low leverage underpin the business while heavy commodity price exposure in a commoditized sector restricts durable differentiation and moat strength.
Main risk: Operational challenges at the CSA copper assets risk limiting the diversification benefit and reducing stability of group earnings and cash flows.
Harmony delivered record earnings and cash flows in FY26 while adding copper production through the CSA mine. The gold foundation now sits alongside this newer exposure to create a more resilient portfolio, but operational challenges at the copper assets could limit the diversification benefit. Will the copper contribution stabilize results more than gold price swings disrupt them, or will integration issues keep the business more exposed than it appears?
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Gold · 196 stocks
Beats the industry median on 13/15 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score69 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+0.8% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)48.1% · Top 25%
Return on assets23.3% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months)29.6% · Above median
Operating margin (12 months)47.2% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)49.2% · Above median
Dividend yield (12 months)5.0% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.02× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Gold median · lower = cheaper
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Is Harmony Gold Mining Co. Ltd. (HAR) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 1, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of R257.78 versus a price of R255.65, about +1% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of HAR?
Our model-based fair value for Harmony Gold Mining Co. Ltd. is R257.78 (as of Nov 1, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: R255.65.
What is the quality score of HAR?
Harmony Gold Mining Co. Ltd. has a Quality Score of 69/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Harmony Gold Mining Co. Ltd. (HAR)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of R257.78 (as of Nov 1, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario R135.93, optimistic scenario R348.12. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Harmony Gold Mining Co. Ltd. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at R257.78, about +1% upside versus a price of R255.65 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario R135.93, optimistic scenario R348.12. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Harmony Gold Mining Co. Ltd. (HAR)?
Harmony Gold Mining Co. Ltd. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 99.2B ZAR (latest available figure, as of Nov 1, 2026).
Does Harmony Gold Mining Co. Ltd. pay a dividend?
Harmony Gold Mining Co. Ltd. currently shows a dividend yield of 5.01% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 1, 2026).
What growth is priced into Harmony Gold Mining Co. Ltd. (HAR)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Harmony Gold Mining Co. Ltd. would have to grow free cash flow by +1.3 % per year for five years (discount rate 12.2 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +21.1 % per year. As of Nov 1, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of HAR use?
Our models discount Harmony Gold Mining Co. Ltd. at 12.2 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.79, country premium for South Africa. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Harmony Gold Mining Co. Ltd. that is +1.3 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (12.2 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Harmony Gold Mining Co. Ltd. (HAR) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Harmony Gold Mining Co. Ltd. grew +21.1 % a year. The price currently implies +1.3 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Harmony Gold Mining Co. Ltd. (HAR) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +9.7 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Harmony Gold Mining Co. Ltd. (+1.3 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Harmony Gold Mining Co. Ltd. (HAR)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 9.87 %: that much free cash flow Harmony Gold Mining Co. Ltd. produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (12.2 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Harmony Gold Mining Co. Ltd. (HAR)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Harmony Gold Mining Co. Ltd. it is R257.78 per share (as of Nov 1, 2026), against a price of R255.65. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Harmony Gold Mining Co. Ltd. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 1, 2026, HAR trades below its calculated fair value: price R255.65, fair value R257.78, a gap of about +1% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of HAR?
No. The price is what the market pays today (R255.65); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (R257.78). For Harmony Gold Mining Co. Ltd. the two are R2.12 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Harmony Gold Mining Co. Ltd. worth?
The market values Harmony Gold Mining Co. Ltd. at about 166B ZAR (market capitalisation, as of Nov 1, 2026). Per share that is R255.65; our models calculate a fair value of R257.78 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about HAR?
Our models span a range for Harmony Gold Mining Co. Ltd.: cautious scenario R135.93, base R257.78, optimistic R348.12 per share (as of Nov 1, 2026, price R255.65). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of HAR?
Harmony Gold Mining Co. Ltd. trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 5.5 (as of Nov 1, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of R257.78 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 2.6, P/B 2.2, P/S 1.7, EV/EBITDA 3.5.
What is the PEG ratio of HAR?
The PEG ratio of Harmony Gold Mining Co. Ltd. is 2.64 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 1, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Harmony Gold Mining Co. Ltd. (HAR)?
Balance-sheet figures for Harmony Gold Mining Co. Ltd. (as of Nov 1, 2026): return on equity 48.1%, debt of 0.02 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 69/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is HAR from its 52-week high?
Harmony Gold Mining Co. Ltd. trades at R255.65, about 37% below its 52-week high of R408.41 and 12% above the low of R227.70 (as of Nov 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of R257.78 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Harmony Gold Mining Co. Ltd.?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Newmont Corporation, Zijin Mining Group, Agnico Eagle Mines Limited, Wheaton Precious Metals Corp, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Harmony Gold Mining Co. Ltd. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 1, 2026: price R255.65, calculated fair value R257.78 (+1%), Quality Score 69/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of HAR calculated?
We run Harmony Gold Mining Co. Ltd. through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of R257.78, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.9 % above its aggregate fair value. Harmony Gold Mining Co. Ltd. currently trades 1 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Harmony Gold Mining Co. Ltd. (HAR)?
The closing price on Nov 2, 2026 was R255.65. Our model-based fair value is R257.78, about +1% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Harmony Gold Mining Co. Ltd. right now?
The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. A fairly wide model range (R135.93 to R348.12) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Harmony Gold Mining Co. Ltd.
How large is the market capitalisation of Harmony Gold Mining Co. Ltd. (HAR)?
The market capitalisation of Harmony Gold Mining Co. Ltd. is 166B ZAR. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Harmony Gold Mining Co. Ltd. (HAR)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Harmony Gold Mining Co. Ltd. is 1.67 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Harmony Gold Mining Co. Ltd. (HAR)?
Earnings per share at Harmony Gold Mining Co. Ltd. are R46.32 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 5.5). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Harmony Gold Mining Co. Ltd. (HAR)?
The dividend yield of Harmony Gold Mining Co. Ltd. is 5.0% (payout 27.6%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Harmony Gold Mining Co. Ltd. (HAR)?
The net margin of Harmony Gold Mining Co. Ltd. is 29.6% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Harmony Gold Mining Co. Ltd. (HAR)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Harmony Gold Mining Co. Ltd. is 48.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Harmony Gold Mining Co. Ltd. (HAR)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Harmony Gold Mining Co. Ltd. is 19.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Harmony Gold Mining Co. Ltd. (HAR)?
The operating margin of Harmony Gold Mining Co. Ltd. is 47.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Harmony Gold Mining Co. Ltd. (HAR)?
Revenue at Harmony Gold Mining Co. Ltd. is growing +49.2% versus a year earlier (3y avg +30.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Harmony Gold Mining Co. Ltd. (HAR)?
Earnings per share at Harmony Gold Mining Co. Ltd. are growing +199% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Harmony Gold Mining Co. Ltd. (HAR) carry?
The net debt of Harmony Gold Mining Co. Ltd. is 802M ZAR (fiscal year 2026, ≈ 0.1 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Nov 1, 2026