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Data-driven stock valuation

Happy Belly Food Group Inc. (HBFGF) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Nov 10, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Happy Belly Food Group Inc. stock $0.49, price $1.03, that is 52.4% below the price, quality 36 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. The value is an estimate: none of our valuation models currently carries, it draws on revenue and assets compared with similar companies. Updated daily.

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Consumer Cyclical US · Based in Canada

HB Happy Belly Food Group Inc. logo Thin data Nov 10, 2026

Happy Belly Food Group Inc.

HBFGF · US
Very expensive, weak quality

Our calculation puts a fair price 52% below what the stock costs today.

Revenue last quarter +56% vs. a year ago.
Mixed Growth (revenue 3y +100.6 %/yr in CAD)
Moderate debt
Fair value $0.4900 · Strongly overvalued
Quality 36/100
Loss-making · -58.7% net margin (TTM)
Negative free cash flow
Trails peers (1/9)
Narrow moat 9/100 · thin data
Thin data
Estimate
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$1.67 $0.0527 Fair Value $0.4900 Dec 2020 Nov 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 10, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $0.0527 – $1.67 · fair‑value band $0.3700 – $0.6200 · the $1.03 price screens above the $0.4900 fair value. As of Nov 10, 2026.

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Company profile

Happy Belly Food Group Inc. operates as a multi-branded restaurant company that engages in acquiring and scaling emerging food brands across Canada. It operates through Consumer Product Goods, Quick Service Restaurants, and Corporate segments.

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The company produces and sells breakfast cereal and related food products under the Holy Crap brand; and snack food products under the Lumber Heads brand through retailers, as well as online retailers and its website.

It also operates various corporate quick service restaurants under the Lettuce Love, Joey Turks, IQ Foods, Pirho Fresh Greek Grill, Salus, Smile Tiger, and Rosie's Burgers names in Ontario and Vancouver; and franchisee restaurant under the Heal Wellness brand, as well as Yolks Breakfast, Via Cibo Italian Street Food, and other brand names.

The company was formerly known as Plant & Co. Brands Ltd. and changed its name to Happy Belly Food Group Inc. in September 2022. Happy Belly Food Group Inc. was incorporated in 2014 and is based in Vancouver, Canada.

Stock analysis

Happy Belly Food Group Inc. (HBFGF) currently trades at $1.03, while our estimate is $0.4900, 52% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

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Valuation

None of our valuation models currently carries for this company, usually because of losses or heavy investment. The estimate draws on revenue and assets compared with similar companies and is less precise than a model-based fair value.

Scenario range: $0.3700 (bear) to $0.6200 (bull), the price of $1.03 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 36/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.

Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.

Happy Belly Food Group Inc. reported revenue of C$22.1M in FY2025 versus C$1.2M in FY2021, a compound +107.0%/yr. Reported net income was −C$7.2M in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap $168M Micro · P/S ratio 6.04 · EPS (TTM) $−0.0900 · Net margin −58.7% · Return on equity −238% · Return on assets (EBIT) −85.7% (5-year average) · Operating margin −51.9% · Revenue (TTM) C$27.8M.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 9 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 38% below its 52-week high and 4% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −29% fair-value upside, at −52%, HBFGF screens richer than that median.

Fair Value

Bear $0.3700 Fair Value $0.4900 Bull $0.6200
Price $1.03 · Downside -52.4%
Estimate. None of our valuation models currently carries for this company, usually because of losses or heavy investment. The estimate draws on revenue and assets compared with similar companies and is less precise than a model-based fair value.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 36/100

It rates the business: profits, how they develop, real cash, balance sheet, investing and share count.

Profitability 40
How much profit the company makes from its sales and capital
Quality Growth 40
Are margins and returns getting better?
Cashflow 13
Do the profits arrive as real cash?
Financial strength 63
Debt, balance sheet and risk of trouble
Investment 26
Does it invest with discipline instead of growing at any price?
Low Volatility 61
How calm the share price moves, does not count
Price momentum 26
Price momentum of the last 3 to 12 months, does not count
Near the 52-week high 9
Distance to the 52-week high, does not count
New shares 30
Buys back shares or issues new ones?

Open the full quality analysis →

Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 34/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+175.9%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+100.6%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−938.7% (2021) → −25.7% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

HBFGF screens overvalued: fair value 52% below the price. Compare with McDonald's Corporation →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Restaurants · 203 stocks

Beats the industry median on 1/8 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 36 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside −52.4% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on assets −50.5% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (12 months) −58.7% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (12 months) −51.9% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY) 56.4% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.57× · Highest 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Restaurants median · lower = cheaper

P/S (12 months) 8.58× · Priciest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 33
FUTURE (revenue growth)100 · sector 20
PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 25
HEALTH (low debt)71 · sector 94
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 60

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Restaurants stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value Compare
Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc CMG $35.92 $39.31 +9% vs HBFGF
Yum China Holdings YUMC $49.73 $51.14 +3% vs HBFGF
Restaurant Brands International Inc QSR $77.63 $72.40 −7% vs HBFGF
Darden Restaurants, Inc DRI $228.66 $175.82 −23% vs HBFGF
Domino's Pizza, Inc DPZ $330.06 $234.54 −29% vs HBFGF
Texas Roadhouse, Inc TXRH $188.16 $128.55 −32% vs HBFGF
Starbucks Corporation SBUX $109.95 $65.63 −40% vs HBFGF
McDonald's Corporation MCD $282.17 $162.81 −42% vs HBFGF
Yum! Brands, Inc YUM $160.21 $73.05 −54% vs HBFGF
CAVA Group CAVA $60.39 $12.01 −80% vs HBFGF

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Happy Belly Food Group Inc.: fair value per Fair Value Calculator

Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Happy Belly Food Group Inc. Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/HBFGF

Frequently asked questions

Is Happy Belly Food Group Inc. (HBFGF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 10, 2026, our estimate of fair value is $0.4900 versus a price of $1.03, about 52% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of HBFGF?
Our estimate for Happy Belly Food Group Inc. is $0.4900 (as of Nov 10, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $1.03.
What is the quality score of HBFGF?
Happy Belly Food Group Inc. has a Quality Score of 36/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Happy Belly Food Group Inc. (HBFGF)?
Our calculated price target is the estimate of $0.4900 (as of Nov 10, 2026). Cautious scenario $0.3700, optimistic scenario $0.6200. It is an estimate from revenue and assets compared with similar companies, because none of our valuation models currently carries, not an analyst target.
What is the Happy Belly Food Group Inc. stock forecast for 2026?
Our estimate puts fair value at $0.4900, about 52% lower versus a price of $1.03 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $0.3700, optimistic scenario $0.6200. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Happy Belly Food Group Inc. (HBFGF)?
Happy Belly Food Group Inc. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about C$27.8M (latest available figure, as of Nov 10, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Happy Belly Food Group Inc. (HBFGF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Happy Belly Food Group Inc. it is $0.4900 per share (as of Nov 10, 2026), against a price of $1.03.
Is Happy Belly Food Group Inc. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 10, 2026, HBFGF trades above its calculated fair value: price $1.03, fair value $0.4900, a gap of about −52% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of HBFGF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($1.03); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($0.4900). For Happy Belly Food Group Inc. the two are $0.5400 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Happy Belly Food Group Inc. worth?
The market values Happy Belly Food Group Inc. at about $168M (market capitalisation, as of Nov 10, 2026). Per share that is $1.03; our models calculate a fair value of $0.4900 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about HBFGF?
Our models span a range for Happy Belly Food Group Inc.: cautious scenario $0.3700, base $0.4900, optimistic $0.6200 per share (as of Nov 10, 2026, price $1.03). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Happy Belly Food Group Inc. (HBFGF)?
Balance-sheet figures for Happy Belly Food Group Inc. (as of Nov 10, 2026): return on equity −237.8%, debt of 0.57 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 36/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is HBFGF from its 52-week high?
Happy Belly Food Group Inc. trades at $1.03, about 38% below its 52-week high of $1.67 and 4% above the low of $0.9900 (as of Nov 10, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $0.4900 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Happy Belly Food Group Inc.?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value McDonald's Corporation, Starbucks Corporation, Yum! Brands, Inc, Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Happy Belly Food Group Inc. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 10, 2026: price $1.03, calculated fair value $0.4900 (−52%), Quality Score 36/100. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.1% above its aggregate fair value. Happy Belly Food Group Inc. itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Happy Belly Food Group Inc. (HBFGF)?
The closing price on Nov 10, 2026 was $1.03. Our estimate is $0.4900, about 52% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Happy Belly Food Group Inc. right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($0.6200). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (36/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.

Key figures of Happy Belly Food Group Inc.

How large is the market capitalisation of Happy Belly Food Group Inc. (HBFGF)?
The market capitalisation of Happy Belly Food Group Inc. is $168M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Happy Belly Food Group Inc. (HBFGF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Happy Belly Food Group Inc. is 6.04 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Happy Belly Food Group Inc. (HBFGF)?
Earnings per share at Happy Belly Food Group Inc. are $−0.0900. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Happy Belly Food Group Inc. (HBFGF)?
The net margin of Happy Belly Food Group Inc. is −58.7% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Happy Belly Food Group Inc. (HBFGF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Happy Belly Food Group Inc. is −238% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Happy Belly Food Group Inc. (HBFGF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Happy Belly Food Group Inc. is −85.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Happy Belly Food Group Inc. (HBFGF)?
The operating margin of Happy Belly Food Group Inc. is −51.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Happy Belly Food Group Inc. (HBFGF)?
Revenue at Happy Belly Food Group Inc. is growing +56.4% versus a year earlier (3y avg +101%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much free cash flow does Happy Belly Food Group Inc. (HBFGF) generate?
The free cash flow of Happy Belly Food Group Inc. is −C$292K (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Happy Belly Food Group Inc. (HBFGF) carry?
The net debt of Happy Belly Food Group Inc. is C$2.2M (fiscal year 2023). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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