Darden Restaurants, Inc (DRI) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · US · Market cap $22.4B
Darden Restaurants, Inc
DRI · US
Fair value as of: Jul 15, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated 23 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 15, 2026, revised from $144.51 to $173.68 (+20.2%) since Jun 24, 2026. Share price +4.0% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 18% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- A high-quality business (quality 70/100), yet the market already pays well above fair value. Quality at a full price, with little margin of safety.
- A fairly wide model range ($115.56 to $249.92) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 15, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $97.08 – $217.32 · fair‑value band $115.56 – $249.92 · the $210.94 price screens above the $173.68 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 15, 2026.
Analysis
Darden Restaurants, Inc (DRI) currently trades at $210.94, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $173.68, implying the stock looks roughly 17.7% overvalued today. We read business quality at 70/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Darden Restaurants, Inc generated revenue of $12.8B at a net margin of 8.7%. Revenue grew 5.9% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 51.5%. Net debt stands at $5.8B. Fundamentals as of Jul 15, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $115.56 (bear case) to $249.92 (bull case); at $210.94, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 5% below its 52-week high and 27% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at -55% fair-value upside, at -18%, DRI screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings ($182.27) versus Asset-Based ($12.91). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 15, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 67 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 63
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Darden Restaurants, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, owns and operates full-service restaurants in the United States and Canada.
Full company description
Darden Restaurants, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, owns and operates full-service restaurants in the United States and Canada. The company operates under Olive Garden, LongHorn Steakhouse, Cheddar's Scratch Kitchen, Chuy's, Yard House, Ruth's Chris Steak House, The Capital Grille, Seasons 52, Eddie V's Prime Seafood, Bahama Breeze, The Capital Burger, Darden and Darden Restaurants brand names. Darden Restaurants, Inc. was founded in 1938 and is based in Orlando, Florida.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2022 – FY2026 · reported fiscal years
Darden Restaurants, Inc reported revenue of $13.2B in FY2026 versus $9.6B in FY2022, a compound +8.2%/yr. Reported net income was $1.2B in FY2026, compounding +6.1%/yr from FY2022.
DRI screens 18% overvalued. Compare with McDonald's Corporation →
Peer Group
Restaurants · 229 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Restaurants median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Insider activity: 44/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Restaurants stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 15, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| McDonald's Corporation MCDS | C$24.01 | C$10.84 | -55% |
| Starbucks Corporation SBUX | $105.49 | $35.83 | -66% |
| Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc CMG | $34.63 | $18.43 | -47% |
| Yum! Brands, Inc YUM | $163.54 | $59.66 | -64% |
| Restaurant Brands International Inc QSR | C$104.19 | C$36.37 | -65% |
| Yum China Holdings YUMC | $43.90 | $55.10 | +26% |
| Texas Roadhouse, Inc TXRH | $197.03 | $104.89 | -47% |
| Dutch Bros Inc BROS | $68.36 | $12.80 | -81% |
| Domino's Pizza, Inc DPZ | $322.18 | $231.96 | -28% |
| CAVA Group CAVA | $68.85 | $10.69 | -84% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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