CAVA Group, Inc. (CAVA) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of CAVA Group, Inc. stock $12.01, price $59.15, that is 79.7% below the price, quality 44 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 24 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 7, 2026.
How to read this chart
41‑month range $29.98 – $150.88 · fair‑value band $5.58 – $15.01 · the $59.15 price screens above the $12.01 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 7, 2026.
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CAVA Group, Inc. owns and operates a chain of restaurants under the CAVA brand in the United States. It also offers dips, spreads, and dressings through grocery stores. In addition, the company provides walk-the-line, online, and mobile ordering platforms.
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CAVA Group, Inc. was founded in 2006 and is headquartered in Washington, District Of Columbia.
Stock analysis
CAVA Group, Inc. (CAVA) currently trades at $59.15, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $12.01, 80% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $15.82 per share, and 0 of the 24 models we run sit above the $59.15 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $4.45, and 24 of the 24 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $5.58 (bear) to $15.01 (bull), the price of $59.15 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 44/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
CAVA Group, Inc. reported revenue of $1.2B in FY2025 versus $500M in FY2021, a compound +23.9%/yr. Reported net income was $63.7M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $7.0B Mid · P/E ratio 107.5 · P/S ratio 4.87 · EPS (TTM) $0.5500 · Net margin 4.5% · Return on equity 8.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) −3.0% (5-year average) · Operating margin 4.7%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 39 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 39% below its 52-week high and 36% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −22% fair-value upside, at −80%, CAVA screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
The price assumes far more growth than our models allow for, so the models scatter widely ($2.64 to $26.57). Read the Fair Value as a cautious anchor, not a price target; the Growth Forecast section shows what the price assumes.
Bear$5.58Fair Value $12.01Bull$15.01
Price $59.15 · Downside -79.7%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.4716 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
In the last 6 months, 2 officers or directors bought shares worth $1.1M, most recently on Sep 15, 2026. Over the same period, 7 people sold shares worth $279.3M. Buying cluster
BuyJoseph John KadowCLO & Secretary3× since May 29, 2026: 3,000 shares, avg. $66.32$198,960Sep 15, 2026
BuyDouglas W. ThompsonChief Operations Officer3× since May 26, 2026: 13,000 shares, avg. $72.69$944,930Aug 31, 2026
SaleKaren KochevarDirector10,000 shares at $90.00$900,000Jun 18, 2026
SaleKelly CostanzaChief People Officer5× since Jan 21, 2026: 60,582 shares, avg. $83.97$5.1MJun 17, 2026
SaleParticipations S.a r.l. ArtalDirector3,000,000 shares at $90.30$270.9MJun 15, 2026
SaleTheodoros XenohristosChief Concept Officer, Director4× since Jan 21, 2026: 14,300 shares, avg. $79.84$1.1MJun 15, 2026
SaleAdam David PhillipsChief Accounting Officer5× since Jan 27, 2026: 13,376 shares, avg. $82.96$1.1MJun 15, 2026
SaleTricia K. TolivarChief Financial Officer3× since Jan 21, 2026: 9,577 shares, avg. $77.51$742,340Jun 15, 2026
SaleBrett SchulmanCEO and President, Director3× since Jan 21, 2026: 59,366 shares, avg. $79.31$4.7MJun 15, 2026
SaleKenneth Robert BertramCLO & Secretary4× since Nov 26, 2025: 20,856 shares, avg. $73.42$1.5MMar 5, 2026
Plus 1 more entries from the last 12 months.
Plus 12 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.54/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+22.4%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+27.9%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.8%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 6 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+18.4%
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: adjusted.
−13.9%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−13.9%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.8% → 7%
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+69.6%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+19.3%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +65.7% a year for the price and +16.5% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (98 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
AI conclusion: CAVA demonstrates strength through rapid expansion to 500 restaurants with productive new units supporting long-term targets, yet low net margins and ROE signal weak competitive durability.
Main risk: Established peers such as Chipotle and Sweetgreen along with smaller Mediterranean concepts could capture customers through similar customizable offerings or menu innovation and force CAVA to lower prices or accept thinner margins.
Bull case: By deepening differentiation through its Mediterranean focus, loyalty programs and operational technology, CAVA could attract more customers from rivals and sustain unit growth toward its 1,000-location target.
Bear case: If rivals expand faster or new Mediterranean entrants gain traction, CAVA might see slower same-store sales, compressed restaurant margins and challenges scaling profitably beyond current levels.
CAVA has opened its 500th restaurant with new units showing strong productivity that supports plans for 1,000 locations by 2032. The company is strengthening marketing leadership to improve guest loyalty and digital engagement during this expansion. Our models currently see it as overvalued. Will the focus on operations and brand building deliver sustained growth or expose limits in a competitive restaurant sector?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Restaurants · 200 stocks
Beats the industry median on 4/14 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score44 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside−79.7% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)8.0% · Above median
Return on assets4.7% · Above median
Net margin (12 months)4.5% · Above median
Operating margin (12 months)4.7% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)22.0% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.44× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Restaurants median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "CAVA Group, Inc. Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/CAVA
Frequently asked questions
Is CAVA Group, Inc. (CAVA) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 7, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $12.01 versus a price of $59.15, about 80% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of CAVA?
Our model-based fair value for CAVA Group, Inc. is $12.01 (as of Nov 7, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $59.15.
What is the quality score of CAVA?
CAVA Group, Inc. has a Quality Score of 44/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for CAVA Group, Inc. (CAVA)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $12.01 (as of Nov 7, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario $5.58, optimistic scenario $15.01. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the CAVA Group, Inc. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $12.01, about 80% lower versus a price of $59.15 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $5.58, optimistic scenario $15.01. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of CAVA Group, Inc. (CAVA)?
CAVA Group, Inc. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $1.4B (latest available figure, as of Nov 7, 2026).
What growth is priced into CAVA Group, Inc. (CAVA)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, CAVA Group, Inc. would have to grow free cash flow by +69.6 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.6 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +4.8 % per year. As of Nov 7, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of CAVA use?
Our models discount CAVA Group, Inc. at 11.6 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 1.76, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For CAVA Group, Inc. that is +69.6 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (11.6 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has CAVA Group, Inc. (CAVA) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at CAVA Group, Inc. grew +4.8 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of +69.6 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of CAVA Group, Inc. (CAVA) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.7 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into CAVA Group, Inc. (+69.6 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of CAVA Group, Inc. (CAVA)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 0.37 %: that much free cash flow CAVA Group, Inc. produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.6 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of CAVA Group, Inc. (CAVA)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For CAVA Group, Inc. it is $12.01 per share (as of Nov 7, 2026), against a price of $59.15. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models in 7 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is CAVA Group, Inc. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 7, 2026, CAVA trades above its calculated fair value: price $59.15, fair value $12.01, a gap of about −80% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of CAVA?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($59.15); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($12.01). For CAVA Group, Inc. the two are $47.14 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is CAVA Group, Inc. worth?
The market values CAVA Group, Inc. at about $7.0B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 7, 2026). Per share that is $59.15; our models calculate a fair value of $12.01 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about CAVA?
Our models span a range for CAVA Group, Inc.: cautious scenario $5.58, base $12.01, optimistic $15.01 per share (as of Nov 7, 2026, price $59.15). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of CAVA?
CAVA Group, Inc. trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 107.5 (as of Nov 7, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $12.01 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 5.2, P/B 9.0, P/S 4.9, EV/EBITDA 43.5.
What is the PEG ratio of CAVA?
The PEG ratio of CAVA Group, Inc. is 5.18 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 7, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of CAVA Group, Inc. (CAVA)?
Balance-sheet figures for CAVA Group, Inc. (as of Nov 7, 2026): return on equity 8.0%, debt of 0.44 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 44/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is CAVA from its 52-week high?
CAVA Group, Inc. trades at $59.15, about 39% below its 52-week high of $97.39 and 36% above the low of $43.59 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $12.01 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to CAVA Group, Inc.?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value McDonald's Corporation, Starbucks Corporation, Yum! Brands, Inc, Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is CAVA Group, Inc. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 7, 2026: price $59.15, calculated fair value $12.01 (−80%), Quality Score 44/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of CAVA calculated?
We run CAVA Group, Inc. through 24 models from 7 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of $12.01 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. CAVA Group, Inc. itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of CAVA Group, Inc. (CAVA)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was $59.15. Our model-based fair value is $12.01, about 80% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with CAVA Group, Inc. right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($15.01). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (44/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The model range is unusually wide ($5.58 to $15.01). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
Key figures of CAVA Group, Inc.
How large is the market capitalisation of CAVA Group, Inc. (CAVA)?
The market capitalisation of CAVA Group, Inc. is $7.0B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of CAVA Group, Inc. (CAVA)?
The price-to-sales ratio of CAVA Group, Inc. is 4.87 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of CAVA Group, Inc. (CAVA)?
Earnings per share at CAVA Group, Inc. are $0.5500 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 107.5). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of CAVA Group, Inc. (CAVA)?
The net margin of CAVA Group, Inc. is 4.5% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of CAVA Group, Inc. (CAVA)?
The return on equity (ROE) of CAVA Group, Inc. is 8.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of CAVA Group, Inc. (CAVA)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of CAVA Group, Inc. is −3.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of CAVA Group, Inc. (CAVA)?
The operating margin of CAVA Group, Inc. is 4.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at CAVA Group, Inc. (CAVA)?
Revenue at CAVA Group, Inc. is growing +22.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg +27.9%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at CAVA Group, Inc. (CAVA)?
Earnings per share at CAVA Group, Inc. are growing −8.3% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does CAVA Group, Inc. (CAVA) carry?
The net debt of CAVA Group, Inc. is $183M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 7.0 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Some data
Nov 7, 2026