HCA Healthcare, Inc. (HCA) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 5, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of HCA Healthcare, Inc. stock $547, price $507, upside +7.9%, quality 70 out of 100. Rating: fairly valued. Calculated from audited financials with 23 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 5, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $160.33 – $542.23 · fair‑value band $286.20 – $800.95 · the $507.48 price screens below the $547.34 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. As of Nov 5, 2026.
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HCA Healthcare, Inc., through its subsidiaries, provides health care services in the United States.
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The company owns, manages, and operates hospitals, ASCs, freestanding emergency care facilities, urgent care facilities, walk-in clinics, diagnostic and imaging centers, radiation and oncology therapy centers, as well as rehabilitation and physical therapy centers, physician practices, home health agencies, hospices, outpatient physical therapy providers, home and community-based services providers, and various other facilities.
Its general and acute care hospitals offer medical and surgical services, including inpatient care, intensive care, cardiac care, diagnostic services, and emergency services; and outpatient services, such as outpatient surgery, laboratory, radiology, respiratory therapy, cardiology, and physical therapy.
The company was formerly known as HCA Holdings, Inc. HCA Healthcare, Inc. was founded in 1968 and is headquartered in Nashville, Tennessee.
Stock analysis
HCA Healthcare, Inc. (HCA) currently trades at $507.48, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $547.34, so the stock looks roughly fairly valued today (gap 7.3%).
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $689.36 per share, and 14 of the 23 models we run sit above the $507.48 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at $196.15, and 9 of the 23 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $286.20 (bear) to $800.95 (bull), the price of $507.48 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 70/100 (solid quality), in the Healthcare sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
HCA Healthcare, Inc. reported revenue of $75.6B in FY2025 versus $58.8B in FY2021, a compound +6.5%/yr. Reported net income was $6.8B in FY2025, compounding −0.6%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $113B Large · P/E ratio 17.0 · P/S ratio 1.44 · EPS (TTM) $29.84 · Dividend yield 0.6% · Net margin 8.6% · Return on equity 136% · Return on assets (EBIT) 18.2%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 58 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 6% below its 52-week high and 41% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at −7% fair-value upside, at 8%, HCA screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$286.20Fair Value $547.34Bull$800.95
Price $507.48 · Upside +7.9%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then ($22.74 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
In the last 6 months, no officer or director bought or sold shares on the open market.
SaleMichael R McAleveyEVP & Chief Legal & Admin Off.1,694 shares at $533.37$903,529Feb 18, 2026
SaleJennifer BerresSVP & Chief Human Res. Officer8,020 shares at $514.58$4.1MFeb 11, 2026
SaleChristopher F. WyattSVP & Controller4,000 shares at $505.00$2.0MFeb 11, 2026
SaleMichael S. CuffeEVP and Chief Clinical Officer1,500 shares at $498.09$747,135Feb 3, 2026
SaleSamuel N HazenCEO, Director42,877 shares at $501.04$21.5MFeb 3, 2026
Plus 4 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.81/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+7.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.9%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.0%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +6.7% a year
Revenue growth 35 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+17.4%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip.
+16.6%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+16.0%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.6%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.22.0% vs 19.4%, steady
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.14% → 16%
2025 sits 54% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes about as much growth as the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+9.5%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+3.3%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +7.0% a year for the price and +0.9% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (100 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
AI conclusion: Scale in its hospital network supports organizational capital, yet labor intensity, regulation and leverage with negative equity constrain moat durability.
Main risk: Changes to Affordable Care Act subsidies and state Medicaid supplemental payments could reduce reimbursements and squeeze margins at HCA's hospitals.
Bull case: HCA could counter reimbursement pressures and payer diversion by accelerating its own outpatient and ambulatory surgery center expansion while using AI to cut administrative costs and improve efficiency.
Bear case: If reimbursement cuts deepen and integrated payers capture more volume in lower-cost settings, HCA could face sustained pressure on admissions, pricing power and overall hospital margins.
HCA has posted volume growth across 22 straight quarters amid consistent demand for its hospital and outpatient services. At the same time, a shift toward more uninsured patients from exchange coverage changes is creating sizable margin pressure this year, with further headwinds expected next year from reduced supplemental payments. Will the operator's scale and efficiency gains overcome these reimbursement shifts, or will they limit earnings progress?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Medical Care Facilities · 235 stocks
Beats the industry median on 9/12 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score70 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+7.9% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)Negative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.
Return on assets11.2% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months)8.6% · Above median
Operating margin (12 months)14.8% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)3.6% · Below median
Dividend yield (12 months)0.6% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equityNegative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.
Valuation Multiplesvs Medical Care Facilities median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)17.0× · Cheaper than median
P/BNegative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.
P/S (12 months)1.44× · Cheaper than median
Price / free cash flow (fiscal year)14.7× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA9.7× · Cheaper than median
PEG1.43× · Pricier than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)44· sector 35
FUTURE (revenue growth)18· sector 30
PAST (return on equity)0· sector 33
HEALTH (low debt)0· sector 90
DIVIDEND (yield)12· sector 40
PAST 0: with negative equity (buybacks among others) return on equity is not meaningfully computable.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "HCA Healthcare, Inc. Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/HCA
Frequently asked questions
Is HCA Healthcare, Inc. (HCA) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 5, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $547.34 versus a price of $507.48, about +8% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of HCA?
Our model-based fair value for HCA Healthcare, Inc. is $547.34 (as of Nov 5, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $507.48.
What is the quality score of HCA?
HCA Healthcare, Inc. has a Quality Score of 70/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for HCA Healthcare, Inc. (HCA)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $547.34 (as of Nov 5, 2026) from 23 valuation models. Cautious scenario $286.20, optimistic scenario $800.95. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the HCA Healthcare, Inc. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $547.34, about +8% upside versus a price of $507.48 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario $286.20, optimistic scenario $800.95. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of HCA Healthcare, Inc. (HCA)?
HCA Healthcare, Inc. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $78.7B (latest available figure, as of Nov 5, 2026).
Does HCA Healthcare, Inc. pay a dividend?
HCA Healthcare, Inc. currently shows a dividend yield of 0.60% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 5, 2026).
What growth is priced into HCA Healthcare, Inc. (HCA)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, HCA Healthcare, Inc. would have to grow free cash flow by +9.5 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.5 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +8.0 % per year. As of Nov 5, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of HCA use?
Our models discount HCA Healthcare, Inc. at 9.5 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 1.11, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For HCA Healthcare, Inc. that is +9.5 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.5 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has HCA Healthcare, Inc. (HCA) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at HCA Healthcare, Inc. grew +8.0 % a year. The price currently implies +9.5 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of HCA Healthcare, Inc. (HCA) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +6.2 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into HCA Healthcare, Inc. (+9.5 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of HCA Healthcare, Inc. (HCA)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 6.80 %: that much free cash flow HCA Healthcare, Inc. produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.5 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of HCA Healthcare, Inc. (HCA)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For HCA Healthcare, Inc. it is $547.34 per share (as of Nov 5, 2026), against a price of $507.48. It is the blended result of 23 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is HCA Healthcare, Inc. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 5, 2026, HCA trades below its calculated fair value: price $507.48, fair value $547.34, a gap of about +8% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of HCA?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($507.48); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($547.34). For HCA Healthcare, Inc. the two are $39.86 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is HCA Healthcare, Inc. worth?
The market values HCA Healthcare, Inc. at about $113B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 5, 2026). Per share that is $507.48; our models calculate a fair value of $547.34 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about HCA?
Our models span a range for HCA Healthcare, Inc.: cautious scenario $286.20, base $547.34, optimistic $800.95 per share (as of Nov 5, 2026, price $507.48). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of HCA?
HCA Healthcare, Inc. trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 17.0 (as of Nov 5, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $547.34 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 10 fiscal years (2016 to 2025), reported earnings: 14.0. Other multiples: PEG 1.4, P/S 1.4, EV/EBITDA 9.7.
What is the PEG ratio of HCA?
The PEG ratio of HCA Healthcare, Inc. is 1.43 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 5, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of HCA Healthcare, Inc. (HCA)?
Balance-sheet figures for HCA Healthcare, Inc. (as of Nov 5, 2026): negative equity, so no return on equity and no debt-to-equity ratio. They feed the Quality Score of 70/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is HCA from its 52-week high?
HCA Healthcare, Inc. trades at $507.48, about 6% below its 52-week high of $542.23 and 41% above the low of $359.93 (as of Nov 5, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $547.34 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to HCA Healthcare, Inc.?
From the same area (Healthcare) we also value Fresenius SE, Tenet Healthcare Corporation, Dr. Sulaiman Al Habib Medical Services Group, Encompass Health Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is HCA Healthcare, Inc. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 5, 2026: price $507.48, calculated fair value $547.34 (+8%), Quality Score 70/100, from 23 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of HCA calculated?
We run HCA Healthcare, Inc. through 23 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $547.34, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.5% above its aggregate fair value. HCA Healthcare, Inc. currently trades 7% below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of HCA Healthcare, Inc. (HCA)?
The closing price on Nov 5, 2026 was $507.48. Our model-based fair value is $547.34, about +8% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with HCA Healthcare, Inc. right now?
The model range is unusually wide ($286.20 to $800.95). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension.
Where does the earnings growth of HCA Healthcare, Inc. (HCA) come from?
Earnings per share at HCA Healthcare, Inc. grew +17.5 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +12.8 %, EBIT margin +0.2 %, tax rate +1.8 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +2.1 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of HCA Healthcare, Inc.
How large is the market capitalisation of HCA Healthcare, Inc. (HCA)?
The market capitalisation of HCA Healthcare, Inc. is $113B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of HCA Healthcare, Inc. (HCA)?
The price-to-sales ratio of HCA Healthcare, Inc. is 1.44 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of HCA Healthcare, Inc. (HCA)?
Earnings per share at HCA Healthcare, Inc. are $29.84 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 17.0). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of HCA Healthcare, Inc. (HCA)?
The dividend yield of HCA Healthcare, Inc. is 0.6% (payout 10.3%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of HCA Healthcare, Inc. (HCA)?
The net margin of HCA Healthcare, Inc. is 8.6% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of HCA Healthcare, Inc. (HCA)?
The return on equity (ROE) of HCA Healthcare, Inc. is 136% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of HCA Healthcare, Inc. (HCA)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of HCA Healthcare, Inc. is 18.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of HCA Healthcare, Inc. (HCA)?
The operating margin of HCA Healthcare, Inc. is 14.8% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at HCA Healthcare, Inc. (HCA)?
Revenue at HCA Healthcare, Inc. is growing +3.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg +7.9%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at HCA Healthcare, Inc. (HCA)?
Earnings per share at HCA Healthcare, Inc. are growing +4.4% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does HCA Healthcare, Inc. (HCA) carry?
The net debt of HCA Healthcare, Inc. is $49.2B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 6.4 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Nov 5, 2026