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Heritage Financial Corporation (HFWA) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Heritage Financial Corporation stock $16.25, price $28.39, that is 42.8% below the price, quality 52 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 6 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

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Financial Services US

HF Heritage Financial Corporation logo Broad data Nov 7, 2026

Heritage Financial Corporation

HFWA · US
Solid, but very expensive

Our calculation puts a fair price 43% below what the stock costs today.

Healthy Growth (revenue 5y +6.0 %/yr in USD)
Highly profitable · 24.6% net margin (TTM)
1.7% dividend yield · Low payout
Upbeat coverage
Broad data
Revenue last quarter +32% vs. a year ago.
Quality 52/100
Moderate moat 59/100
Insiders sold $1.2M (6M)
Fair value $16.25 · Strongly overvalued
Trails peers (3/15)
⚠ Dilution
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$30.99 $13.30 Fair Value $16.25 Aug 2021 Nov 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 7, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $13.30 – $30.99 · fair‑value band $14.37 – $17.85 · the $28.39 price screens above the $16.25 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 7, 2026.

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Company profile

Heritage Financial Corporation operates as the bank holding company for Heritage Bank that provides various financial services to small and medium sized businesses and its owners in the United States.

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It accepts various deposit products, such as noninterest demand deposits, interest bearing demand deposits, money market accounts, savings accounts, personal checking accounts, and certificates of deposit.

The company also offers commercial business loans, including lines of credit, term equipment financing and term owner-occupied, and non-owner occupied CRE loans; real estate construction and land development loans, as well as residential construction loans, and commercial and multifamily construction loans; residential real estate loans; and originate loans that are guaranteed by the U.S. SBA, and secured and unsecured consumer loans and lines of credit.

In addition, it provides investment advice, online banking, online statements, mobile banking with mobile deposit, Visa debit cards, and access. The company was formerly known as Heritage Financial Corporation, M.H.C. and changed its name to Heritage Financial Corporation in 1998.

Heritage Financial Corporation was founded in 1927 and is headquartered in Olympia, Washington.

Stock analysis

Heritage Financial Corporation (HFWA) currently trades at $28.39, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $16.25, 43% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Economic Profit group reads highest at a median of $19.12 per share, and 0 of the 6 models we run sit above the $28.39 price.

Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $11.20, and 6 of the 6 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.

Scenario range: $14.37 (bear) to $17.85 (bull), the price of $28.39 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 52/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector.

Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.

Heritage Financial Corporation reported revenue of $336M in FY2025 versus $247M in FY2021, a compound +7.9%/yr. Reported net income was $67.5M in FY2025, compounding −8.9%/yr from FY2021.

Key figures

Market cap $1.1B Small · P/E ratio 14.1 · P/S ratio 3.63 · EPS (TTM) $2.01 · Dividend yield 1.7% · Net margin 24.6% · Return on equity 7.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) 1.2% (5-year average).

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 59 out of 100 (medium confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 8% below its 52-week high and 36% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −28% fair-value upside, at −43%, HFWA screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $14.37 Fair Value $16.25 Bull $17.85
Price $28.39 · Downside -42.8%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then ($1.30 per share) are deliberately not added. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
Residual Income $18.18 $19.12 $21.00 76
Gordon GGM $6.87 $13.35 $19.71 67
DDM Multi-Stage $6.87 $11.71 $14.14 67
All 6 models by family
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM $6.87 $13.35 $19.71 67
DDM Multi-Stage $6.87 $11.71 $14.14 67
Multiples
P/E Multiple $16.23 $21.64 $27.04 63
P/B Multiple $3.41 $4.54 $5.68 55
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $8.36 $11.20 $16.72 54
Economic Profit
Residual Income $18.18 $19.12 $21.00 76

The fair value above starts from this blend and is adjusted for dilution from new shares.

Open the full fair value analysis →

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 52/100

It rates the business: profits, how they develop, real cash, balance sheet, investing and share count.

Profitability 30
How much profit the company makes from its sales and capital
Quality Growth 68
Are margins and returns getting better?
Cashflow 87
Do the profits arrive as real cash?
Financial strength 3
Debt, balance sheet and risk of trouble
Investment 99
Does it invest with discipline instead of growing at any price?
Low Volatility 88
How calm the share price moves, does not count
Price momentum 50
Price momentum of the last 3 to 12 months, does not count
Near the 52-week high 70
Distance to the 52-week high, does not count
New shares 18
Buys back shares or issues new ones?

Open the full quality analysis →

Insider trades

In the last 6 months, 7 officers or directors sold shares worth $1.2M and none bought.

  • SaleFrederick B RiveraDirector2× since Feb 3, 2026: 3,100 shares, avg. $27.26$84,499Sep 15, 2026
  • SaleBrian CharneskiDirector13,675 shares at $29.18$399,037Sep 3, 2026
  • SaleMatthew T. RayEVP Chief Lending Officer3,692 shares at $30.10$111,129Aug 13, 2026
  • SaleTony ChalfantEVP Chief Credit Officer2× since Feb 11, 2026: 7,902 shares, avg. $28.58$225,831Aug 5, 2026
  • SaleJeffrey S LyonDirector10,000 shares at $30.00$300,000Aug 5, 2026
  • SaleKelli Ann WilsonEVP Chief Banking Officer2× since Jan 26, 2026: 5,678 shares, avg. $28.62$162,481Jul 30, 2026
  • SaleDonald HinsonEVPand Chief Financial Officer3,842 shares at $28.37$108,998Jun 9, 2026
  • SaleSabrina C RobisonEVP Chief HR Officer5,440 shares at $27.60$150,127May 1, 2026
  • BuyBryan McDonaldPresident19,106 shares at $22.32$426,446Nov 20, 2025

Plus 3 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.

Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.

Source: SEC Form 4, as of Nov 6, 2026. All filings at the SEC ↗

Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 76/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+5.9%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.3%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.0%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +7.2% a year
Revenue growth 28 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+11.3%
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+3.1%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+1.4%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.7%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.1.4% vs 4.6%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.21% → 23%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)

HFWA screens overvalued: fair value 43% below the price. Compare with China Merchants Bank Co →

Earlier news

News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (89 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation. Hype
Recent news coverage is unusually upbeat, far more positive than stocks are typically covered.

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Banks - Regional · 997 stocks

Beats the industry median on 3/15 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 52 · Below median
Fair Value upside −42.8% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months) 7.8% · Below median
Return on assets 1.0% · Above median
Net margin (12 months) 24.6% · Below median
Operating margin (12 months) 31.0% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY) 31.8% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (12 months) 1.7% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.05× · Lowest 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Banks - Regional median · lower = cheaper

P/E (12 months) 14.1× · Pricier than median
P/B 1.24× · Pricier than median
P/S (12 months) 3.63× · Pricier than median
Price / free cash flow (fiscal year) 13.4× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA 14.3× · Pricier than median
PEG 2.13× · Pricier than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 8
FUTURE (revenue growth)100 · sector 47
PAST (return on equity)31 · sector 43
HEALTH (low debt)–
DIVIDEND (yield)35 · sector 53

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

HEALTH: for banks, insurers and similar financial firms borrowed money is part of the business, so we do not rate debt here.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Banks - Regional stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value Compare
Postal Savings Bank of China Co 601658 ¥5.53 ¥7.59 +37% vs HFWA
China Merchants Bank Co 600036 ¥42.88 ¥52.73 +23% vs HFWA
BNP Paribas SA BNP €91.93 €106.01 +15% vs HFWA
Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A ISP €6.18 €4.49 −27% vs HFWA
State Bank of India SBIN ₹1,019 ₹736.65 −28% vs HFWA
UniCredit S.p.A UCG €76.80 €50.44 −34% vs HFWA
Mizuho Financial Group MFG $9.40 $5.90 −37% vs HFWA
DBS Group D05 69.72 SGD 40.39 SGD −42% vs HFWA
HDFC Bank Limited HDFCBANK ₹788.25 ₹406.39 −48% vs HFWA
ICICI Bank Limited ICICIBANK ₹1,571 ₹615.63 −61% vs HFWA

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Heritage Financial Corporation: fair value per Fair Value Calculator

Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Heritage Financial Corporation Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/HFWA

Frequently asked questions

Is Heritage Financial Corporation (HFWA) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 7, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $16.25 versus a price of $28.39, about 43% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of HFWA?
Our model-based fair value for Heritage Financial Corporation is $16.25 (as of Nov 7, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $28.39.
What is the quality score of HFWA?
Heritage Financial Corporation has a Quality Score of 52/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Heritage Financial Corporation (HFWA)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $16.25 (as of Nov 7, 2026) from 6 valuation models. Cautious scenario $14.37, optimistic scenario $17.85. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Heritage Financial Corporation stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $16.25, about 43% lower versus a price of $28.39 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $14.37, optimistic scenario $17.85. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Heritage Financial Corporation (HFWA)?
Heritage Financial Corporation reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $315M (latest available figure, as of Nov 7, 2026).
Does Heritage Financial Corporation pay a dividend?
Heritage Financial Corporation currently shows a dividend yield of 1.73% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 7, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Heritage Financial Corporation (HFWA) and when is the ex-dividend date?
Heritage Financial Corporation pays a dividend of $0.49 per share a year, a dividend yield of 1.7%. The last ex-dividend date was Nov 4, 2026. A dividend has been paid every year since 2011. The payout ratio is 24.4% of earnings. Our assessment: Low payout. A low payout ratio: the dividend takes at most 60 % of earnings. Whether free cash flow covers it as well, we cannot see for this company.
What is the intrinsic value of Heritage Financial Corporation (HFWA)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Heritage Financial Corporation it is $16.25 per share (as of Nov 7, 2026), against a price of $28.39. It is the blended result of 6 valuation models in 4 families (Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Economic Profit).
Is Heritage Financial Corporation stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 7, 2026, HFWA trades above its calculated fair value: price $28.39, fair value $16.25, a gap of about −43% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of HFWA?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($28.39); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($16.25). For Heritage Financial Corporation the two are $12.14 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Heritage Financial Corporation worth?
The market values Heritage Financial Corporation at about $1.1B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 7, 2026). Per share that is $28.39; our models calculate a fair value of $16.25 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about HFWA?
Our models span a range for Heritage Financial Corporation: cautious scenario $14.37, base $16.25, optimistic $17.85 per share (as of Nov 7, 2026, price $28.39). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of HFWA?
Heritage Financial Corporation trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 14.1 (as of Nov 7, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $16.25 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 10 fiscal years (2016 to 2025), reported earnings: 16.8. Other multiples: PEG 2.1, P/B 1.2, P/S 3.6, EV/EBITDA 14.3.
What is the PEG ratio of HFWA?
The PEG ratio of Heritage Financial Corporation is 2.13 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 7, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Heritage Financial Corporation (HFWA)?
Balance-sheet figures for Heritage Financial Corporation (as of Nov 7, 2026): return on equity 7.8%, debt of 0.05 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 52/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is HFWA from its 52-week high?
Heritage Financial Corporation trades at $28.39, about 8% below its 52-week high of $30.99 and 36% above the low of $20.91 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $16.25 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Heritage Financial Corporation?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value China Merchants Bank Co, DBS Group, UniCredit S.p.A, Mizuho Financial Group, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Heritage Financial Corporation stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 7, 2026: price $28.39, calculated fair value $16.25 (−43%), Quality Score 52/100, from 6 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of HFWA calculated?
We run Heritage Financial Corporation through 6 models from 4 families: Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Economic Profit. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of $16.25 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. Heritage Financial Corporation itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Heritage Financial Corporation (HFWA)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was $28.39. Our model-based fair value is $16.25, about 43% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Heritage Financial Corporation right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($17.85). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (52/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Where does the earnings growth of Heritage Financial Corporation (HFWA) come from?
Earnings per share at Heritage Financial Corporation grew +4.1 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +5.6 %, EBIT margin −2.9 %, tax rate +1.5 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +0.0 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.

Key figures of Heritage Financial Corporation

How large is the market capitalisation of Heritage Financial Corporation (HFWA)?
The market capitalisation of Heritage Financial Corporation is $1.1B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Heritage Financial Corporation (HFWA)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Heritage Financial Corporation is 3.63 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Heritage Financial Corporation (HFWA)?
Earnings per share at Heritage Financial Corporation are $2.01 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 14.1). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Heritage Financial Corporation (HFWA)?
The dividend yield of Heritage Financial Corporation is 1.7% (payout 24.4%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Heritage Financial Corporation (HFWA)?
The net margin of Heritage Financial Corporation is 24.6% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Heritage Financial Corporation (HFWA)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Heritage Financial Corporation is 7.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Heritage Financial Corporation (HFWA)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Heritage Financial Corporation is 1.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Heritage Financial Corporation (HFWA)?
The operating margin of Heritage Financial Corporation is 31.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Heritage Financial Corporation (HFWA)?
Revenue at Heritage Financial Corporation is growing +31.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg +9.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Heritage Financial Corporation (HFWA)?
Earnings per share at Heritage Financial Corporation are growing −16.5% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Heritage Financial Corporation (HFWA) generate?
The free cash flow of Heritage Financial Corporation is $85.7M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does Heritage Financial Corporation (HFWA) hold?
Heritage Financial Corporation holds more cash than debt, $10.2M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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