Heritage Financial Corporation (HFWA) Fair Value & Analysis
Financial Services · US · Market cap $1.2B
Heritage Financial Corporation
HFWA · US
Fair value as of: Jul 26, 2026
From 6 valuation models · updated 15 days ago
Share price +2.8% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 28% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($26.62). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (67/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 26, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $13.41 – $31.25 · fair‑value band $15.97 – $26.62 · the $29.50 price screens above the $21.30 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 26, 2026.
Analysis
Heritage Financial Corporation (HFWA) currently trades at $29.50, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $21.30, implying the stock looks roughly 27.8% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 67/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Heritage Financial Corporation generated revenue of $266M at a net margin of 27.3%. Revenue grew 37.2% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 7.3%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of $10.2M. Fundamentals as of Jul 26, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $15.97 (bear case) to $26.62 (bull case); at $29.50, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades near its 52-week high and 41% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at 42% fair-value upside, at -28%, HFWA screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 6 models by family
Widest divergence: Multiples ($21.30) versus Dividend Discount ($10.13). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 26, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 58 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 76
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Heritage Financial Corporation operates as the bank holding company for Heritage Bank that provides various financial services to small and medium sized businesses and its owners in the United States.
Full company description
Heritage Financial Corporation operates as the bank holding company for Heritage Bank that provides various financial services to small and medium sized businesses and its owners in the United States. It accepts various deposit products, such as noninterest demand deposits, interest bearing demand deposits, money market accounts, savings accounts, personal checking accounts, and certificates of deposit. The company also offers commercial business loans, including lines of credit, term equipment financing and term owner-occupied, and non-owner occupied CRE loans; real estate construction and land development loans, as well as residential construction loans, and commercial and multifamily construction loans; residential real estate loans; and originate loans that are guaranteed by the U.S. SBA, and secured and unsecured consumer loans and lines of credit. In addition, it provides investment advice, online banking, online statements, mobile banking with mobile deposit, Visa debit cards, and access. The company was formerly known as Heritage Financial Corporation, M.H.C. and changed its name to Heritage Financial Corporation in 1998. Heritage Financial Corporation was founded in 1927 and is headquartered in Olympia, Washington.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Heritage Financial Corporation reported revenue of $336M in FY2025 versus $247M in FY2021, a compound +7.9%/yr. Reported net income was $67.5M in FY2025, compounding −8.9%/yr from FY2021.
HFWA screens 28% overvalued. Compare with PT Bank Central Asia Tbk →
Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Heritage Financial (HFWA) Q2 2026 Earnings Call Transcript
- Heritage Financial outlines $64M-$65M Q3 noninterest expense and $56M-$57M Q4 run-rate as Kitsap conversion nears
- Heritage Financial Q2 Earnings Call Highlights
- What This Heritage Financial Insider Move Signals With the Stock Up 20%
Peer Group
Banks - Regional · 1083 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Banks - Regional median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 44/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Banks - Regional stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 26, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| PT Bank Central Asia Tbk BBCA | 6,175 IDR | 6,087 IDR | -1% |
| KB Financial Group 105560 | 184,400 KRW | 213,797 KRW | +16% |
| PT Bank Rakyat Indonesia (Persero) Tbk BBRI | 2,970 IDR | 4,891 IDR | +65% |
| PT Bank Mandiri (Persero) Tbk BMRI | 4,310 IDR | 7,841 IDR | +82% |
| Banco Bradesco S.A BBD | 5,120 ARS | 10,240 ARS | +100% |
| Shinhan Financial Group 055550 | 107,900 KRW | 137,259 KRW | +27% |
| Hana Financial Group 086790 | 136,800 KRW | 193,969 KRW | +42% |
| Lloyds Banking Group LYG | 4,138 ARS | 8,275 ARS | +100% |
| Banco de Chile, CHILE | 193.10 CLP | 152.55 CLP | -21% |
| Joint Stock Commercial Bank for Foreign Trade of Vietnam, VCB | 59,400 VND | 84,201 VND | +42% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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