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Heritage Global Inc (HGBL) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Heritage Global Inc stock $1.56, price $1.25, upside +24.8%, quality 51 out of 100. Rating: undervalued. Calculated from audited financials with 6 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

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Financial Services US

HG Heritage Global Inc logo Thin data Nov 8, 2026

Heritage Global Inc

HGBL · US
Undervalued, but in a downtrend

The stock costs 20% less than our calculation considers fair.

Fair value $1.56 · Undervalued
Low debt
Quality 51/100
Mixed Growth (revenue 5y +14.3 %/yr in USD)
Loss over the last twelve months · -29.6% net margin (TTM) · fiscal year 2025 7.0%
Mixed vs. peers (5/12)
Insiders bought $530,120 (6M) · sold $408,425
Revenue last quarter 14% below a year ago.
Negative free cash flow
Narrow moat 21/100
Thin data
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$4.03 $1.02 Fair Value $1.56 Aug 2021 Nov 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 8, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $1.02 – $4.03 · fair‑value band $1.01 – $1.68 · the $1.25 price screens below the $1.56 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. As of Nov 8, 2026.

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Company profile

Heritage Global Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates as an asset services company with focus on financial and industrial asset transactions in the United States. It operates through three segments: Auction and Liquidation, Refurbishment and Resale, Brokerage, and Specialty Lending.

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The company offers a suite of market making, acquisitions, refurbishment, dispositions, valuations, and secured lending services. It is also involved in identifying, valuing, acquiring, and monetizing underlying tangible assets.

In addition, the company acts as an adviser, as well as a principal, acquiring, or brokering manufacturing facilities; surplus industrial machinery and equipment; industrial inventories; and charged-off receivable portfolios.

The company was formerly known as Counsel RB Capital Inc. and changed its name to Heritage Global, Inc. in August 2013. Heritage Global, Inc. was founded in 1937 and is headquartered in San Diego, California.

Stock analysis

Heritage Global Inc (HGBL) currently trades at $1.25, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $1.56, implying the stock looks roughly 20% undervalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Earnings-Based group reads highest at a median of $2.93 per share, and 5 of the 6 models we run sit above the $1.25 price.

Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $0.3500, and 1 of the 6 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is low.

Scenario range: $1.01 (bear) to $1.68 (bull), the price of $1.25 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 51/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector.

Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.

Heritage Global Inc reported revenue of $51.0M in FY2025 versus $25.8M in FY2021, a compound +18.6%/yr. Reported net income was $3.6M in FY2025, compounding +4.1%/yr from FY2021.

Key figures

Market cap $43.3M Micro · P/S ratio 0.89 · EPS (TTM) $−0.4000 · Net margin −29.6% · Return on equity −24.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) 11.4% (5-year average) · Operating margin −22.3% · Revenue (TTM) $48.2M.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 21 out of 100 (medium confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 14% below its 52-week high and 23% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −11% fair-value upside, at 25%, HGBL screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $1.01 Fair Value $1.56 Bull $1.68
Price $1.25 · Upside +24.8%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
Residual Income $1.52 $1.56 $1.67 71
Graham-Dodd $0.7000 $4.16 $5.80 63
P/E Multiple $1.01 $1.35 $1.68 63
All 6 models by family
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd $0.7000 $4.16 $5.80 63
Lynch FV $1.18 $1.69 $2.20 61
Multiples
P/E Multiple $1.01 $1.35 $1.68 63
P/B Multiple $1.71 $2.28 $2.85 55
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $0.2300 $0.3500 $0.4400 54
Economic Profit
Residual Income $1.52 $1.56 $1.67 71

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 51/100

It rates the business: profits, how they develop, real cash, balance sheet, investing and share count.

Profitability 34
How much profit the company makes from its sales and capital
Quality Growth 30
Are margins and returns getting better?
Cashflow 33
Do the profits arrive as real cash?
Financial strength 94
Debt, balance sheet and risk of trouble
Investment 38
Does it invest with discipline instead of growing at any price?
Low Volatility 70
How calm the share price moves, does not count
Price momentum 42
Price momentum of the last 3 to 12 months, does not count
Near the 52-week high 35
Distance to the 52-week high, does not count
New shares 100
Buys back shares or issues new ones?

Open the full quality analysis →

Insider trades

In the last 6 months, 4 officers or directors bought shares worth $530,120, most recently on Sep 25, 2026. Over the same period, 2 people sold shares worth $408,425. Buying cluster

  • SaleJames Edward SklarEVP, Gen Counsel & Secretary9× since Dec 1, 2025: 29,904 shares, avg. $1.30$38,886Nov 2, 202610b5-1 plan
  • BuyWilliam L BurnhamDirector300,000 shares at $1.33$399,000Sep 25, 2026
  • SaleRoss DoveCEO, Director300,000 shares at $1.33$399,000Sep 25, 2026
  • BuyBrian J. CobbCFO20,000 shares at $1.10$22,000Aug 20, 2026
  • BuyNicholas Kirk DovePresident, Industrial Assets2× since May 21, 2026: 86,000 shares, avg. $1.14$97,720Aug 17, 2026
  • BuyBruce Kenneth HounsellPresident, Heritage DebtX LLC10,000 shares at $1.14$11,400Aug 17, 2026

Plus one other filing such as a grant, option exercise or tax withholding. It is not a market purchase or sale.

Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.

Source: SEC Form 4, as of Nov 6, 2026. All filings at the SEC ↗

Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 50/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+12.4%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.8%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+14.3%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +11.3% a year
Revenue growth 38 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.7%
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: adjusted.
−3.2%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−3.2%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.base effect: −5.3% / 70.3%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.23% → 11%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Capital Markets · 384 stocks

Beats the industry median on 5/11 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 51 · Below median
Fair Value upside +24.8% · Above median
Profitability
Return on assets 4.1% · Above median
Net margin (12 months) −29.6% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (12 months) −22.3% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY) −14.3% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.06× · Below median

Valuation Multiplesvs Capital Markets median · lower = cheaper

P/B 0.65× · Cheapest 25%
P/S (12 months) 0.90× · Cheapest 25%
EV/EBITDA 54.4× · Priciest 25%
PEG 3.60× · Priciest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)66 · sector 42
FUTURE (revenue growth)0 · sector 68
PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 38
HEALTH (low debt)97 · sector 94
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 47

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Capital Markets stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value Compare
Morgan Stanley MS $181.44 $260.72 +44% vs HGBL
The Charles Schwab Corporation SCHW $91.49 $117.60 +29% vs HGBL
Guotai Haitong Securities Co 601211 ¥16.46 ¥18.02 +9% vs HGBL
Nomura Holdings NMR $9.42 $10.17 +8% vs HGBL
The Goldman Sachs Group GS $865.82 $766.86 −11% vs HGBL
CITIC Securities Company 600030 ¥25.72 ¥20.42 −21% vs HGBL
Robinhood Markets, Inc HOOD $80.91 $47.60 −41% vs HGBL
Macquarie Group MQG A$247.94 A$123.84 −50% vs HGBL
East Money Information Co 300059 ¥18.78 ¥6.72 −64% vs HGBL
Interactive Brokers Group IBKR $75.82 $17.48 −77% vs HGBL

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Heritage Global Inc: fair value per Fair Value Calculator

Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Heritage Global Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/HGBL

Frequently asked questions

Is Heritage Global Inc (HGBL) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 8, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $1.56 versus a price of $1.25, about +25% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of HGBL?
Our model-based fair value for Heritage Global Inc is $1.56 (as of Nov 8, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $1.25.
What is the quality score of HGBL?
Heritage Global Inc has a Quality Score of 51/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Heritage Global Inc (HGBL)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $1.56 (as of Nov 8, 2026) from 6 valuation models. Cautious scenario $1.01, optimistic scenario $1.68. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Heritage Global Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $1.56, about +25% upside versus a price of $1.25 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $1.01, optimistic scenario $1.68. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Heritage Global Inc (HGBL)?
Heritage Global Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $48.2M (latest available figure, as of Nov 8, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Heritage Global Inc (HGBL)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Heritage Global Inc it is $1.56 per share (as of Nov 8, 2026), against a price of $1.25. It is the blended result of 6 valuation models in 4 families (Earnings-Based, Multiples, Asset-Based, Economic Profit).
Is Heritage Global Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 8, 2026, HGBL trades below its calculated fair value: price $1.25, fair value $1.56, a gap of about +25% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of HGBL?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($1.25); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($1.56). For Heritage Global Inc the two are $0.3100 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Heritage Global Inc worth?
The market values Heritage Global Inc at about $43.3M (market capitalisation, as of Nov 8, 2026). Per share that is $1.25; our models calculate a fair value of $1.56 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about HGBL?
Our models span a range for Heritage Global Inc: cautious scenario $1.01, base $1.56, optimistic $1.68 per share (as of Nov 8, 2026, price $1.25). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the PEG ratio of HGBL?
The PEG ratio of Heritage Global Inc is 3.60 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 8, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Heritage Global Inc (HGBL)?
Balance-sheet figures for Heritage Global Inc (as of Nov 8, 2026): return on equity −24.3%, debt of 0.06 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 51/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is HGBL from its 52-week high?
Heritage Global Inc trades at $1.25, about 14% below its 52-week high of $1.46 and 23% above the low of $1.02 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $1.56 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Heritage Global Inc?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value Morgan Stanley, The Goldman Sachs Group, The Charles Schwab Corporation, Interactive Brokers Group, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Heritage Global Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 8, 2026: price $1.25, calculated fair value $1.56 (+25%), Quality Score 51/100, from 6 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of HGBL calculated?
We run Heritage Global Inc through 6 models from 4 families: Earnings-Based, Multiples, Asset-Based, Economic Profit. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of $1.56 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. Heritage Global Inc currently trades 20% below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Heritage Global Inc (HGBL)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was $1.25. Our model-based fair value is $1.56, about +25% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Heritage Global Inc right now?
Solid quality (51/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.

Key figures of Heritage Global Inc

How large is the market capitalisation of Heritage Global Inc (HGBL)?
The market capitalisation of Heritage Global Inc is $43.3M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Heritage Global Inc (HGBL)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Heritage Global Inc is 0.89 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Heritage Global Inc (HGBL)?
Earnings per share at Heritage Global Inc are $−0.4000. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Heritage Global Inc (HGBL)?
The net margin of Heritage Global Inc is −29.6% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Heritage Global Inc (HGBL)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Heritage Global Inc is −24.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Heritage Global Inc (HGBL)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Heritage Global Inc is 11.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Heritage Global Inc (HGBL)?
The operating margin of Heritage Global Inc is −22.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Heritage Global Inc (HGBL)?
Revenue at Heritage Global Inc is growing −14.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg +2.8%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Heritage Global Inc (HGBL)?
Earnings per share at Heritage Global Inc are growing −33.3% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Heritage Global Inc (HGBL) generate?
The free cash flow of Heritage Global Inc is −$2.3M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does Heritage Global Inc (HGBL) hold?
Heritage Global Inc holds more cash than debt, $14.8M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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