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Heritage Global Inc (HGBL) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Heritage Global Inc $1.55, price $1.33, upside +16.5%, quality 50 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? Yes
  2. Good quality? Yes
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Financial Services · US · ISIN US42727E1038

HG Heritage Global Inc logo Some data Sep 23, 2026

Heritage Global Inc

HGBL · US

SpeculativeUpside exists, but weak quality makes the signal speculative.

✓Fair value $1.55 · Undervalued (+17%)
!Quality 50/100
!Mixed Growth (revenue 5y +14.3 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 6.5% net margin (TTM)
!Low debt · negative free cash flow
!Mixed vs. peers (7/13)
!Narrow moat 34/100
!Evidence only medium, so the estimate is less certain
!Weak on past: 19 out of 100
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$4.03 $1.02 Fair Value $1.55 Jun 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $1.02 – $4.03 · fair‑value band $1.01 – $1.55 · the $1.33 price screens below the $1.55 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.

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Company profile

Heritage Global Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates as an asset services company with focus on financial and industrial asset transactions in the United States. It operates through three segments: Auction and Liquidation, Refurbishment and Resale, Brokerage, and Specialty Lending.

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Heritage Global Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates as an asset services company with focus on financial and industrial asset transactions in the United States. It operates through three segments: Auction and Liquidation, Refurbishment and Resale, Brokerage, and Specialty Lending. The company offers a suite of market making, acquisitions, refurbishment, dispositions, valuations, and secured lending services. It is also involved in identifying, valuing, acquiring, and monetizing underlying tangible assets. In addition, the company acts as an adviser, as well as a principal, acquiring, or brokering manufacturing facilities; surplus industrial machinery and equipment; industrial inventories; and charged-off receivable portfolios. The company was formerly known as Counsel RB Capital Inc. and changed its name to Heritage Global, Inc. in August 2013. Heritage Global, Inc. was founded in 1937 and is headquartered in San Diego, California.

Stock analysis

Heritage Global Inc (HGBL) currently trades at $1.33, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $1.55, implying the stock looks roughly 14.2% undervalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Earnings-Based group reads highest at a median of $3.61 per share, and 5 of the 6 models we run sit above the $1.33 price.

Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $1.29, and 1 of the 6 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.

Scenario range: $1.01 (bear) to $1.55 (bull), the price of $1.33 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 50/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector.

Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.

Heritage Global Inc reported revenue of $51.0M in FY2025 versus $25.8M in FY2021, a compound +18.6%/yr. Reported net income was $3.6M in FY2025, compounding +4.1%/yr from FY2021.

Key figures

Market cap $47.1M · P/E ratio 14.8 · P/S ratio 1.04 · EPS (TTM) $0.0900 · Net margin 7.0% · Return on equity 4.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) 11.4% · Operating margin 4.0%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 38 out of 100 (medium confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 24% below its 52-week high and 30% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −17% fair-value upside, at 17%, HGBL screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $1.01 Fair Value $1.55 Bull $1.55
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.0661 per share) are deliberately not added. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
Residual Income $1.47 $1.49 $1.43 68
P/E Multiple $1.01 $1.34 $1.68 63
Graham-Dodd $0.7000 $4.90 $6.87 61
All 6 models by family
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd $0.7000 $4.90 $6.87 61
Lynch FV $2.53 $3.61 $4.70 59
Multiples
P/E Multiple $1.01 $1.34 $1.68 63
P/B Multiple $1.32 $1.76 $2.19 55
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $0.9600 $1.29 $1.93 54
Economic Profit
Residual Income $1.47 $1.49 $1.43 68

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 50/100

Of which business quality 55 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 42

Profitability 34
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 30
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 33
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 94
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 38
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 69
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 33
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 26
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 99
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 50/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+12.4%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.8%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+14.3%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +11.3% a year
Revenue growth 38 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.7%
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: adjusted.
−3.2%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−3.2%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−5% vs 70%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.23% → 11%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Capital Markets · 460 stocks

Beats the industry median on 7/13 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 53 · Below median
Fair Value upside +17% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM) 5% · Below median
Return on assets 3% · Above median
Net margin (TTM) 6% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM) 4% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth −6% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.06× · Below median

Valuation Multiplesvs Capital Markets median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 14.8× · Cheaper than median
P/B 0.70× · Cheaper than median
P/S (TTM) 0.94× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA 5.8× · Cheaper than median
PEG 3.60× · Priciest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)55 · sector 27
FUTURE (revenue growth)0 · sector 85
PAST (return on equity)19 · sector 30
HEALTH (low debt)97 · sector 95
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 41

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Capital Markets stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Morgan Stanley, a financial holding company, MS $196.32 $314.07 +60%
The Goldman Sachs Group GS $923.29 $766.86 −17%
The Charles Schwab Corporation SCHW $99.49 $118.07 +19%
Interactive Brokers Group IBKR $89.82 $23.27 −74%
Robinhood Markets, Inc HOOD $122.70 $47.73 −61%
Macquarie Group MQG A$242.55 A$80.51 −67%
CITIC Securities Company 600030 ¥26.79 ¥18.35 −32%
Guotai Haitong Securities Co 601211 ¥17.67 ¥19.29 +9%
East Money Information Co 300059 ¥18.77 ¥4.94 −74%
CSC Financial Co 601066 ¥23.67 ¥39.83 +68%

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Heritage Global Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/HGBL

Frequently asked questions

Is Heritage Global Inc (HGBL) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $1.55 versus a price of $1.33, about +17% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of HGBL?
Our model-based fair value for Heritage Global Inc is $1.55 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $1.33.
What is the quality score of HGBL?
Heritage Global Inc has a Quality Score of 50/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Heritage Global Inc (HGBL)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $1.55 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 6 valuation models. Cautious scenario $1.01, optimistic scenario $1.55. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Heritage Global Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $1.55, about +17% upside versus a price of $1.33 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $1.01, optimistic scenario $1.55. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Heritage Global Inc (HGBL)?
Heritage Global Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $50.2M (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Heritage Global Inc (HGBL)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Heritage Global Inc it is $1.55 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of $1.33. It is the blended result of 6 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Heritage Global Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, HGBL trades below its calculated fair value: price $1.33, fair value $1.55, a gap of about +17% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of HGBL?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($1.33); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($1.55). For Heritage Global Inc the two are $0.2200 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Heritage Global Inc worth?
The market values Heritage Global Inc at about $47.1M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is $1.33; our models calculate a fair value of $1.55 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about HGBL?
Our models span a range for Heritage Global Inc: cautious scenario $1.01, base $1.55, optimistic $1.55 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price $1.33). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of HGBL?
Heritage Global Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 14.8 (as of Sep 23, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $1.55 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 3.6, P/B 0.7, P/S 0.9, EV/EBITDA 5.8.
What is the PEG ratio of HGBL?
The PEG ratio of Heritage Global Inc is 3.60 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 23, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Heritage Global Inc (HGBL)?
Balance-sheet figures for Heritage Global Inc (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity 4.9%, debt of 0.06 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 50/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is HGBL from its 52-week high?
Heritage Global Inc trades at $1.33, about 24% below its 52-week high of $1.75 and 30% above the low of $1.02 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $1.55 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Heritage Global Inc?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value Morgan Stanley, a financial holding company,, The Goldman Sachs Group, The Charles Schwab Corporation, Interactive Brokers Group, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Heritage Global Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price $1.33, calculated fair value $1.55 (+17%), Quality Score 50/100, from 6 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of HGBL calculated?
We run Heritage Global Inc through 6 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $1.55, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Heritage Global Inc currently trades 17 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Heritage Global Inc (HGBL)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was $1.33. Our model-based fair value is $1.55, about +17% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Heritage Global Inc right now?
For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly. The price sits in the upper half of our model range, so the margin of safety is thin. Read the verdict with care: some models are missing inputs, so the estimate scatters more than usual.

Key figures of Heritage Global Inc

How large is the market capitalisation of Heritage Global Inc (HGBL)?
The market capitalisation of Heritage Global Inc is $47.1M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Heritage Global Inc (HGBL)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Heritage Global Inc is 1.04 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Heritage Global Inc (HGBL)?
Earnings per share at Heritage Global Inc are $0.0900 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 14.8). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Heritage Global Inc (HGBL)?
The net margin of Heritage Global Inc is 7.0% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Heritage Global Inc (HGBL)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Heritage Global Inc is 4.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Heritage Global Inc (HGBL)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Heritage Global Inc is 11.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Heritage Global Inc (HGBL)?
The operating margin of Heritage Global Inc is 4.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Heritage Global Inc (HGBL)?
Revenue at Heritage Global Inc is growing −5.5% versus a year earlier (3y avg +2.8%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Heritage Global Inc (HGBL)?
Earnings per share at Heritage Global Inc are growing −33.3% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Heritage Global Inc (HGBL) generate?
The free cash flow of Heritage Global Inc is −$2.3M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does Heritage Global Inc (HGBL) hold?
Heritage Global Inc holds more cash than debt, $14.8M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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