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Hamelin Gold Ltd (HMG) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Nov 11, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Hamelin Gold Ltd stock A$0.13, price A$0.16, that is 18.3% below the price, quality 43 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. The value is an estimate: none of our valuation models currently carries, it draws on revenue and assets compared with similar companies. Updated daily.

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Basic Materials AU · ISIN AU0000178071

HG Hamelin Gold Ltd logo Thin data Nov 10, 2026

Hamelin Gold Ltd

HMG · AU
Expensive, weak quality

Our calculation puts a fair price 18% below what the stock costs today.

Ranks above peers (4/6)
Quality 43/100
Fair value A$0.1308 · Overvalued
Weak Growth
Negative free cash flow
Narrow moat 3/100 · thin data
Thin data
⟳ CyclicalEstimate
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

A$0.2650 A$0.0510 Fair Value A$0.1308 Nov 2021 Nov 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 10, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range A$0.0510 – A$0.2650 · fair‑value band A$0.0981 – A$0.1635 · the A$0.1600 price screens above the A$0.1308 fair value. As of Nov 10, 2026.

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Company profile

Hamelin Gold Limited operates as a mineral exploration company in the Western Tanami and Yilgarn regions of Western Australia. The company holds 100% interest in the West Tanami Gold Project covering 2,277 square kilometers of gold province located in Western Australia.

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Hamelin Gold Limited was incorporated in 2021 and is based in Subiaco, Australia.

Stock analysis

Hamelin Gold Ltd (HMG) currently trades at A$0.1600, while our estimate is A$0.1308, 18% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

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Valuation

None of our valuation models currently carries for this company, usually because of losses or heavy investment. The estimate draws on revenue and assets compared with similar companies and is less precise than a model-based fair value.

Scenario range: A$0.0981 (bear) to A$0.1635 (bull), the price of A$0.1600 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 43/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector.

Weak Growth: Revenue growth is weak, negative or inconsistent.

Hamelin Gold Ltd reported revenue of A$0 in FY2024 versus A$0 in FY2021. Reported net income was −A$1.7M in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap A$40.0M (≈ $27.5M) Micro · EPS (TTM) A$−0.0100 · Return on equity −9.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) −5.5% (5-year average) · Operating margin −2,673% · Revenue (TTM) A$28.6K · Revenue growth (YoY) +952% · Free cash flow −A$843K.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 3 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 40% below its 52-week high and 171% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at −13% fair-value upside, at −18%, HMG screens richer than that median.

Fair Value

Bear A$0.0981 Fair Value A$0.1308 Bull A$0.1635
Price A$0.1600 · Downside -18.3%
Estimate. None of our valuation models currently carries for this company, usually because of losses or heavy investment. The estimate draws on revenue and assets compared with similar companies and is less precise than a model-based fair value.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 43/100

It rates the business: profits, how they develop, real cash, balance sheet, investing and share count.

Profitability 0
How much profit the company makes from its sales and capital
Quality Growth 75
Are margins and returns getting better?
Cashflow 0
Do the profits arrive as real cash?
Financial strength 81
Debt, balance sheet and risk of trouble
Investment 100
Does it invest with discipline instead of growing at any price?
Low Volatility 23
How calm the share price moves, does not count
Price momentum 69
Price momentum of the last 3 to 12 months, does not count
Near the 52-week high 75
Distance to the 52-week high, does not count
New shares 40
Buys back shares or issues new ones?

Open the full quality analysis →

Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 0/100
Revenue growth is weak, negative or inconsistent.
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

HMG screens overvalued: fair value 18% below the price. Compare with Newmont Corporation →

Compare Hamelin Gold Ltd with another stock

Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Gold · 286 stocks

Beats the industry median on 4/5 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 43 · Above median
Fair Value upside −18.3% · Above median
Profitability
Return on assets −9.2% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY) 951.6% · Top 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Gold median · lower = cheaper

P/B 2.29× · Cheaper than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)9 · sector 5
FUTURE (revenue growth)100 · sector 80
PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 0
HEALTH (low debt)0 · sector 99
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 24

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Gold stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value Compare
Agnico Eagle Mines Limited AEM $190.46 $220.88 +16% vs HMG
Newmont Corporation NEM $119.96 $137.68 +15% vs HMG
Royal Gold, Inc RGLD $274.57 $259.27 −6% vs HMG
AngloGold Ashanti plc AU $93.85 $88.58 −6% vs HMG
Shandong Gold Mining Co 600547 ¥27.00 ¥23.61 −13% vs HMG
Kinross Gold Corporation KGC $21.53 $18.00 −16% vs HMG
Franco-Nevada Corporation FNV $255.79 $212.28 −17% vs HMG
Wheaton Precious Metals Corp WPM $136.62 $87.64 −36% vs HMG
Northern Star Resources Limited NST A$26.73 A$16.87 −37% vs HMG
Zijin Mining Group 601899 ¥28.18 ¥15.62 −45% vs HMG

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Hamelin Gold Ltd: fair value per Fair Value Calculator

Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Hamelin Gold Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/HMG

Frequently asked questions

Is Hamelin Gold Ltd (HMG) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 10, 2026, our estimate of fair value is A$0.1308 versus a price of A$0.1600, about 18% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of HMG?
Our estimate for Hamelin Gold Ltd is A$0.1308 (as of Nov 10, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: A$0.1600.
What is the quality score of HMG?
Hamelin Gold Ltd has a Quality Score of 43/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Hamelin Gold Ltd (HMG)?
Our calculated price target is the estimate of A$0.1308 (as of Nov 10, 2026). Cautious scenario A$0.0981, optimistic scenario A$0.1635. It is an estimate from revenue and assets compared with similar companies, because none of our valuation models currently carries, not an analyst target.
What is the Hamelin Gold Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our estimate puts fair value at A$0.1308, about 18% lower versus a price of A$0.1600 (overvalued). Cautious scenario A$0.0981, optimistic scenario A$0.1635. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Hamelin Gold Ltd (HMG)?
Hamelin Gold Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about A$28.6K (latest available figure, as of Nov 10, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Hamelin Gold Ltd (HMG)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Hamelin Gold Ltd it is A$0.1308 per share (as of Nov 10, 2026), against a price of A$0.1600.
Is Hamelin Gold Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 10, 2026, HMG trades above its calculated fair value: price A$0.1600, fair value A$0.1308, a gap of about −18% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of HMG?
No. The price is what the market pays today (A$0.1600); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (A$0.1308). For Hamelin Gold Ltd the two are A$0.0292 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Hamelin Gold Ltd worth?
The market values Hamelin Gold Ltd at about A$40.0M (market capitalisation, as of Nov 10, 2026). Per share that is A$0.1600; our models calculate a fair value of A$0.1308 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about HMG?
Our models span a range for Hamelin Gold Ltd: cautious scenario A$0.0981, base A$0.1308, optimistic A$0.1635 per share (as of Nov 10, 2026, price A$0.1600). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Hamelin Gold Ltd (HMG)?
Balance-sheet figures for Hamelin Gold Ltd (as of Nov 10, 2026): return on equity −9.2%. They feed the Quality Score of 43/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is HMG from its 52-week high?
Hamelin Gold Ltd trades at A$0.1600, about 40% below its 52-week high of A$0.2650 and 171% above the low of A$0.0590 (as of Nov 11, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of A$0.1308 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Hamelin Gold Ltd?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Newmont Corporation, Zijin Mining Group, Agnico Eagle Mines Limited, Wheaton Precious Metals Corp, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Hamelin Gold Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 10, 2026: price A$0.1600, calculated fair value A$0.1308 (−18%), Quality Score 43/100. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.1% above its aggregate fair value. Hamelin Gold Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Hamelin Gold Ltd (HMG)?
The closing price on Nov 11, 2026 was A$0.1600. Our estimate is A$0.1308, about 18% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Hamelin Gold Ltd right now?
Weak quality (43/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual.

Key figures of Hamelin Gold Ltd

How large is the market capitalisation of Hamelin Gold Ltd (HMG)?
The market capitalisation of Hamelin Gold Ltd is A$40.0M (≈ $27.5M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What are the earnings per share of Hamelin Gold Ltd (HMG)?
Earnings per share at Hamelin Gold Ltd are A$−0.0100. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the return on equity of Hamelin Gold Ltd (HMG)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Hamelin Gold Ltd is −9.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Hamelin Gold Ltd (HMG)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Hamelin Gold Ltd is −5.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Hamelin Gold Ltd (HMG)?
The operating margin of Hamelin Gold Ltd is −2,673% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Hamelin Gold Ltd (HMG)?
Revenue at Hamelin Gold Ltd is growing +952% versus a year earlier. How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much free cash flow does Hamelin Gold Ltd (HMG) generate?
The free cash flow of Hamelin Gold Ltd is −A$843K (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does Hamelin Gold Ltd (HMG) hold?
Hamelin Gold Ltd holds more cash than debt, A$1.3M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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