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Hycroft Mining Holding Corporation (HYMC) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Nov 10, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Hycroft Mining Holding Corporation stock $12.16, price $18.87, that is 35.6% below the price, quality 55 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. The value is an estimate: none of our valuation models currently carries, it draws on revenue and assets compared with similar companies. Updated daily.

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Basic Materials US

HM Hycroft Mining Holding Corporation logo Thin data Nov 10, 2026

Hycroft Mining Holding Corporation

HYMC · US
Solid, but very expensive

Our calculation puts a fair price 36% below what the stock costs today.

Quality 55/100
Moderate debt
Neutral coverage
Insiders bought $50,075 (6M) · sold $3.1M
Revenue last quarter 52% below a year ago.
Fair value $12.16 · Strongly overvalued
Weak Growth (revenue YoY −70.0 %/yr in USD)
Negative free cash flow
Trails peers (1/8)
Narrow moat 10/100 · thin data
Thin data
⟳ CyclicalEstimate
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26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

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Price vs Fair Value

$55.74 $1.76 Fair Value $12.16 Aug 2021 Nov 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 10, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $1.76 – $55.74 · fair‑value band $9.12 – $15.20 · the $18.87 price screens above the $12.16 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 10, 2026.

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Company profile

Hycroft Mining Holding Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, operates as a gold and silver exploration and development company in the United States.

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Its property, Hycroft Mine, consists of 25 patented claims covering approximately 1,855 acres and 3,249 unpatented lode and placer claims spanning 62,298 acres located 54 miles northwest of Winnemucca in Nevada. The company is based in Winnemucca, Nevada.

Stock analysis

Hycroft Mining Holding Corporation (HYMC) currently trades at $18.87, while our estimate is $12.16, 36% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

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Valuation

None of our valuation models currently carries for this company, usually because of losses or heavy investment. The estimate draws on revenue and assets compared with similar companies and is less precise than a model-based fair value.

Scenario range: $9.12 (bear) to $15.20 (bull), the price of $18.87 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 55/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector.

Weak Growth: Revenue growth is weak, negative or inconsistent.

Hycroft Mining Holding Corporation reported revenue of $0 in FY2025 versus $111M in FY2021. Reported net income was −$40.7M in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap $1.7B Small · EPS (TTM) $−0.9400 · Return on equity −72.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) −30.2% (5-year average) · Revenue growth (YoY) −52.2% · Free cash flow −$83.4M · Net cash $182M.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 10 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 66% below its 52-week high and 139% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at −13% fair-value upside, at −36%, HYMC screens richer than that median.

Fair Value

Bear $9.12 Fair Value $12.16 Bull $15.20
Price $18.87 · Downside -35.6%
Estimate. None of our valuation models currently carries for this company, usually because of losses or heavy investment. The estimate draws on revenue and assets compared with similar companies and is less precise than a model-based fair value.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 55/100

It rates the business: profits, how they develop, real cash, balance sheet, investing and share count.

Profitability 0
How much profit the company makes from its sales and capital
Quality Growth 75
Are margins and returns getting better?
Cashflow 100
Do the profits arrive as real cash?
Financial strength 93
Debt, balance sheet and risk of trouble
Investment 45
Does it invest with discipline instead of growing at any price?
Low Volatility 0
How calm the share price moves, does not count
Price momentum 37
Price momentum of the last 3 to 12 months, does not count
Near the 52-week high 62
Distance to the 52-week high, does not count
New shares 0
Buys back shares or issues new ones?

Open the full quality analysis →

Insider trades

In the last 6 months, one officer or director bought shares worth $50,075, on Oct 28, 2026. Over the same period, 4 people sold shares worth $3.1M.

  • SaleRebecca JenningsSVP & General Counsel4× since Mar 17, 2026: 46,499 shares, avg. $28.85$1.3MNov 9, 2026
  • BuyBlake RhodesDirector3,000 shares at $16.69$50,075Oct 28, 2026
  • SaleDavid Brian ThomasSVP, General Manager3× since Dec 29, 2025: 49,000 shares, avg. $25.46$1.2MJun 16, 2026
  • SaleDiane R GarrettChair, President & CEO, Director21,550 shares at $31.50$678,825Jun 4, 2026
  • SaleStanton K RideoutExecutive Vice President & CFO16,500 shares at $30.18$497,970Jun 4, 2026
  • Buy2176423 Ontario Ltd.10% owner10× since Nov 11, 2025: 3,420,000 shares, avg. $18.14$62.0MApr 24, 2026
  • BuyEric Sprott10% owner7× since Nov 17, 2025: 4,085,824 shares, avg. $15.61$63.8MApr 9, 2026
  • SaleMarni WieshoferDirector3,859 shares at $13.37$51,595Dec 12, 2025
  • SaleAMERICAN MULTI-CINEMA, INC.10% owner2,340,824 shares at ?Dec 3, 2025

Plus 9 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.

Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.

Source: SEC Form 4, as of Nov 10, 2026. All filings at the SEC ↗

Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 0/100
Revenue growth is weak, negative or inconsistent.
Revenue growth 1 year
−70.0%
Revenue growth 10 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−17.0%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
37.7% (2012) → −161.0% (2022)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

HYMC screens overvalued: fair value 36% below the price. Compare with Newmont Corporation →

Earlier news

News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (94 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation. Neutral
Recent news coverage is roughly neutral, about typical for how stocks are covered.

Compare Hycroft Mining Holding Corporation with another stock

Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Gold · 286 stocks

Beats the industry median on 1/7 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 55 · Above median
Fair Value upside −35.6% · Below median
Profitability
Return on assets −15.5% · Below median
Operating margin (12 months) 0.0% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY) −52.2% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.59× · Highest 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Gold median · lower = cheaper

P/B 8.08× · Priciest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 5
FUTURE (revenue growth)0 · sector 80
PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 0
HEALTH (low debt)71 · sector 99
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 24

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Gold stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value Compare
Agnico Eagle Mines Limited AEM $190.46 $220.88 +16% vs HYMC
Newmont Corporation NEM $119.96 $137.68 +15% vs HYMC
Royal Gold, Inc RGLD $274.57 $259.27 −6% vs HYMC
AngloGold Ashanti plc AU $93.85 $88.58 −6% vs HYMC
Shandong Gold Mining Co 600547 ¥27.00 ¥23.61 −13% vs HYMC
Kinross Gold Corporation KGC $21.53 $18.00 −16% vs HYMC
Franco-Nevada Corporation FNV $255.79 $212.28 −17% vs HYMC
Wheaton Precious Metals Corp WPM $136.62 $87.64 −36% vs HYMC
Northern Star Resources Limited NST A$26.73 A$16.87 −37% vs HYMC
Zijin Mining Group 601899 ¥28.18 ¥15.62 −45% vs HYMC

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Hycroft Mining Holding Corporation: fair value per Fair Value Calculator

Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Hycroft Mining Holding Corporation Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/HYMC

Frequently asked questions

Is Hycroft Mining Holding Corporation (HYMC) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 10, 2026, our estimate of fair value is $12.16 versus a price of $18.87, about 36% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of HYMC?
Our estimate for Hycroft Mining Holding Corporation is $12.16 (as of Nov 10, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $18.87.
What is the quality score of HYMC?
Hycroft Mining Holding Corporation has a Quality Score of 55/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Hycroft Mining Holding Corporation (HYMC)?
Our calculated price target is the estimate of $12.16 (as of Nov 10, 2026). Cautious scenario $9.12, optimistic scenario $15.20. It is an estimate from revenue and assets compared with similar companies, because none of our valuation models currently carries, not an analyst target.
What is the Hycroft Mining Holding Corporation stock forecast for 2026?
Our estimate puts fair value at $12.16, about 36% lower versus a price of $18.87 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $9.12, optimistic scenario $15.20. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the intrinsic value of Hycroft Mining Holding Corporation (HYMC)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Hycroft Mining Holding Corporation it is $12.16 per share (as of Nov 10, 2026), against a price of $18.87.
Is Hycroft Mining Holding Corporation stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 10, 2026, HYMC trades above its calculated fair value: price $18.87, fair value $12.16, a gap of about −36% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of HYMC?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($18.87); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($12.16). For Hycroft Mining Holding Corporation the two are $6.71 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Hycroft Mining Holding Corporation worth?
The market values Hycroft Mining Holding Corporation at about $1.7B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 10, 2026). Per share that is $18.87; our models calculate a fair value of $12.16 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about HYMC?
Our models span a range for Hycroft Mining Holding Corporation: cautious scenario $9.12, base $12.16, optimistic $15.20 per share (as of Nov 10, 2026, price $18.87). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Hycroft Mining Holding Corporation (HYMC)?
Balance-sheet figures for Hycroft Mining Holding Corporation (as of Nov 10, 2026): return on equity −72.3%, debt of 0.59 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 55/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is HYMC from its 52-week high?
Hycroft Mining Holding Corporation trades at $18.87, about 66% below its 52-week high of $55.74 and 139% above the low of $7.88 (as of Nov 10, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $12.16 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Hycroft Mining Holding Corporation?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Newmont Corporation, Zijin Mining Group, Agnico Eagle Mines Limited, Wheaton Precious Metals Corp, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Hycroft Mining Holding Corporation stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 10, 2026: price $18.87, calculated fair value $12.16 (−36%), Quality Score 55/100. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.1% above its aggregate fair value. Hycroft Mining Holding Corporation itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Hycroft Mining Holding Corporation (HYMC)?
The closing price on Nov 10, 2026 was $18.87. Our estimate is $12.16, about 36% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Hycroft Mining Holding Corporation right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($15.20). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (55/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.

Key figures of Hycroft Mining Holding Corporation

How large is the market capitalisation of Hycroft Mining Holding Corporation (HYMC)?
The market capitalisation of Hycroft Mining Holding Corporation is $1.7B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What are the earnings per share of Hycroft Mining Holding Corporation (HYMC)?
Earnings per share at Hycroft Mining Holding Corporation are $−0.9400. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the return on equity of Hycroft Mining Holding Corporation (HYMC)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Hycroft Mining Holding Corporation is −72.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Hycroft Mining Holding Corporation (HYMC)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Hycroft Mining Holding Corporation is −30.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
How fast is revenue growing at Hycroft Mining Holding Corporation (HYMC)?
Revenue at Hycroft Mining Holding Corporation is growing −52.2% versus a year earlier. How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much free cash flow does Hycroft Mining Holding Corporation (HYMC) generate?
The free cash flow of Hycroft Mining Holding Corporation is −$83.4M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does Hycroft Mining Holding Corporation (HYMC) hold?
Hycroft Mining Holding Corporation holds more cash than debt, $182M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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