Italgas SpA (IG) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 5, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Italgas SpA stock €10.07, price €9.17, upside +9.7%, quality 40 out of 100. Rating: fairly valued. Calculated from audited financials with 21 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 5, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range €3.79 – €10.72 · fair‑value band €10.07 – €28.05 · the €9.17 price screens below the €10.07 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. As of Nov 5, 2026.
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Italgas S.p.A., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the distribution of natural gas in Italy, Greece, and Other European Union countries. It operates through Gas distribution, Water Service, and Energy Efficiency segments.
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The company involved in metering activities and the transportation of gas to households, enterprises, etc. It also engages in collection, adduction, and distribution of water for civil use, drains, and the purification of wastewater.
The company operated a distribution network of 156,655 kilometers and water distribution network of 6,300 kilometers. Italgas S.p.A. was founded in 1837 and is based in Milan, Italy.
Stock analysis
Italgas SpA (IG) currently trades at €9.17, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €10.07, so the stock looks roughly fairly valued today (gap 8.9%).
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of €14.53 per share, and 5 of the 20 models we run sit above the €9.17 price.
Bear case: the Growth DCF group reads lowest at €2.56, and 15 of the 20 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: €10.07 (bear) to €28.05 (bull), the price of €9.17 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 40/100 (below-average quality), in the Utilities sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Italgas SpA reported revenue of €3.5B in FY2025 versus €2.1B in FY2021, a compound +13.7%/yr. Reported net income was €672M in FY2025, compounding +16.7%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap €9.3B Large · P/E ratio 13.5 · P/S ratio 2.52 · EPS (TTM) €0.6800 · Dividend yield 4.7% · Net margin 19.5% · Return on equity 18.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) 5.8%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 69 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 14% below its 52-week high and 14% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Utilities peers we cover trades at −23% fair-value upside, at 10%, IG screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear€10.07Fair Value €10.07Bull€28.05
Price €9.17 · Upside +9.7%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then (€0.2106 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.80/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+41.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+17.1%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+11.3%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +9.6% a year
Revenue growth 12 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.5%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+11.5%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+6.8%
Dividend (yield on the price)4.7%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.6.8% vs −7.7%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.26% → 35%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 5.3%/yr over ~10Y (margins intact) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+23.8%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
−0.6%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (euro area: IMF forecast 2.2% a year to 2030, 2.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +21.1% a year for the price and −2.7% for the forecasts.
AI conclusion: Moderate moat from regulated distribution scale forms the main strength, while weak innovation signals and high debt relative to equity stand as the key weaknesses.
Main risk: A shift toward electrification and lower gas demand in Italy could reduce delivery points and volumes handled by Italgas networks, hitting revenues from regulated tariffs.
Bull case: Italgas could leverage its digitalisation and AI tools to repurpose networks for biomethane and hydrogen, sustaining volumes and regulated returns across Italy, Greece and Portugal.
Bear case: If gas demand declines sharply due to electrification, networks could see falling utilisation, pressuring revenues and leaving assets underutilised despite regulatory protections.
Italgas has agreed to acquire a stake in Floene, Portugal’s leading gas distributor with a 14,000 km network. This move extends its M&A strategy into a new regulated market by pairing local operations with its digitalisation expertise. Our models see it as undervalued, yet will the added scale from international expansion outweigh the challenges of integrating and operating across borders?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Utilities - Regulated Gas · 107 stocks
Beats the industry median on 7/14 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score40 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside+9.7% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)18.1% · Top 25%
Return on assets3.6% · Below median
Net margin (12 months)19.5% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months)52.2% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)191.6% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (12 months)4.7% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity2.71× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Utilities - Regulated Gas median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)13.5× · Cheaper than median
P/B2.44× · book value is mostly goodwill ⓘGoodwill and other intangible assets are larger than the equity. The book value mainly reflects prices paid for past acquisitions, so we do not rank this P/B against the peer group.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Italgas SpA Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/IG
Frequently asked questions
Is Italgas SpA (IG) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 5, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €10.07 versus a price of €9.17, about +10% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of IG?
Our model-based fair value for Italgas SpA is €10.07 (as of Nov 5, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: €9.17.
What is the quality score of IG?
Italgas SpA has a Quality Score of 40/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Italgas SpA (IG)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of €10.07 (as of Nov 5, 2026) from 21 valuation models. Cautious scenario €10.07, optimistic scenario €28.05. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Italgas SpA stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at €10.07, about +10% upside versus a price of €9.17 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario €10.07, optimistic scenario €28.05. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Italgas SpA (IG)?
Italgas SpA reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €3.7B (latest available figure, as of Nov 5, 2026).
Does Italgas SpA pay a dividend?
Italgas SpA currently shows a dividend yield of 4.71% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 5, 2026).
What growth is priced into Italgas SpA (IG)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Italgas SpA would have to grow free cash flow by +23.8 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.6 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +11.3 % per year. As of Nov 5, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of IG use?
Our models discount Italgas SpA at 10.6 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.70, country premium for Italy. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Italgas SpA that is +23.8 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.6 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Italgas SpA (IG) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Italgas SpA grew +11.3 % a year. The price currently implies +23.8 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Italgas SpA (IG) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.3 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Italgas SpA (+23.8 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Italgas SpA (IG)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 5.77 %: that much free cash flow Italgas SpA produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.6 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Italgas SpA (IG)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Italgas SpA it is €10.07 per share (as of Nov 5, 2026), against a price of €9.17. It is the blended result of 21 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Italgas SpA stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 5, 2026, IG trades below its calculated fair value: price €9.17, fair value €10.07, a gap of about +10% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of IG?
No. The price is what the market pays today (€9.17); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (€10.07). For Italgas SpA the two are €0.8932 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Italgas SpA worth?
The market values Italgas SpA at about €9.3B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 5, 2026). Per share that is €9.17; our models calculate a fair value of €10.07 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about IG?
Our models span a range for Italgas SpA: cautious scenario €10.07, base €10.07, optimistic €28.05 per share (as of Nov 5, 2026, price €9.17). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of IG?
Italgas SpA trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 13.5 (as of Nov 5, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of €10.07 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 2.8, P/B 2.4, P/S 2.5, EV/EBITDA 9.4.
What is the PEG ratio of IG?
The PEG ratio of Italgas SpA is 2.82 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 5, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Italgas SpA (IG)?
Balance-sheet figures for Italgas SpA (as of Nov 5, 2026): return on equity 18.1%, debt of 2.71 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 40/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is IG from its 52-week high?
Italgas SpA trades at €9.17, about 14% below its 52-week high of €10.72 and 14% above the low of €8.07 (as of Nov 5, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of €10.07 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Italgas SpA?
From the same area (Utilities) we also value Naturgy Energy Group, Atmos Energy Corporation, Snam S.p.A, NiSource Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Italgas SpA stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 5, 2026: price €9.17, calculated fair value €10.07 (+10%), Quality Score 40/100, from 21 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of IG calculated?
We run Italgas SpA through 21 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of €10.07, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.6% above its aggregate fair value. Italgas SpA currently trades 9% below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Italgas SpA (IG)?
The closing price on Nov 5, 2026 was €9.17. Our model-based fair value is €10.07, about +10% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Italgas SpA right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case (€10.07). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The model range is unusually wide (€10.07 to €28.05). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension.
Where does the earnings growth of Italgas SpA (IG) come from?
Earnings per share at Italgas SpA grew −9.0 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share −6.2 %, EBIT margin +0.2 %, tax rate −0.4 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −2.8 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Italgas SpA
How large is the market capitalisation of Italgas SpA (IG)?
The market capitalisation of Italgas SpA is €9.3B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Italgas SpA (IG)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Italgas SpA is 2.52 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Italgas SpA (IG)?
Earnings per share at Italgas SpA are €0.6800 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 13.5). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Italgas SpA (IG)?
The dividend yield of Italgas SpA is 4.7% (payout 63.5%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Italgas SpA (IG)?
The net margin of Italgas SpA is 19.5% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Italgas SpA (IG)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Italgas SpA is 18.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Italgas SpA (IG)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Italgas SpA is 5.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Italgas SpA (IG)?
The operating margin of Italgas SpA is 52.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Italgas SpA (IG)?
Revenue at Italgas SpA is growing +192% versus a year earlier (3y avg +17.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Italgas SpA (IG)?
Earnings per share at Italgas SpA are growing +1.4% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Italgas SpA (IG) carry?
The net debt of Italgas SpA is €10.8B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 20.1 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Nov 5, 2026