Imperial Oil Ltd (IMO) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 30, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Imperial Oil Ltd stock $69.36, price $138, that is 49.8% below the price, quality 71 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 2, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $21.48 – $138.10 · fair‑value band $52.02 – $86.70 · the $138.10 price screens above the $69.36 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. As of Nov 2, 2026.
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Imperial Oil Limited engages in exploration, production, and sale of crude oil and natural gas in Canada. The company operates in three segments: Upstream, Downstream and Chemical segments. The Upstream segment explores and produces crude oil, natural gas, synthetic crude oil, and bitumen.
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The Downstream segment transports and refines crude oil; blends refined products; and distributes and markets refined products.
This segment also transports crude oil production and third-party crude oil to refineries by contracted and common carrier pipelines; owns and operates refineries; maintains a distribution system to move petroleum products to market by pipeline, tanker, rail, and road transport; owns and operates fuel terminals, natural gas liquids, and products pipelines in Alberta, Manitoba, and Ontario; markets petroleum products under the Esso and Mobil brands; and sells petroleum products, including fuel, asphalt, and lubricants to industrial and transportation customers, independent marketers, resellers, and other refiners, as well as the agriculture, residential heating, and commercial markets through branded fuel and lubricant resellers.
The Chemical segment manufactures and markets aliphatic solvents, plasticizer intermediates, and polyethylene resins; and markets refinery grade propylene. It also provides petrochemicals. The company was incorporated in 1880 and is headquartered in Calgary, Canada.
Imperial Oil Limited operates as a subsidiary of Exxon Mobil Corporation.
Stock analysis
Imperial Oil Ltd (IMO) currently trades at $138.10, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $69.36, 49.8% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of $92.60 per share, and 0 of the 25 models we run sit above the $138.10 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $20.65, and 25 of the 25 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $52.02 (bear) to $86.70 (bull), the price of $138.10 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 71/100 (solid quality), in the Energy sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Imperial Oil Ltd reported revenue of C$47.1B in FY2025 versus C$37.5B in FY2021, a compound +5.8%/yr. Reported net income was C$3.3B in FY2025, compounding +7.2%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $67.0B Large · P/E ratio 15.2 · P/S ratio 1.06 · EPS (TTM) $9.06 · Dividend yield 2.4% · Net margin 6.9% · Return on equity 16.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) 17.4%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 60 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades at its 52-week high and 67% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at −12% fair-value upside, at −50%, IMO screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$52.02Fair Value $69.36Bull$86.70
Price $138.10 · Downside -49.8%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then ($4.80 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
−8.6%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−7.5%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+16.1%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +6.5% a year
Revenue growth 40 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.4%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+17.7%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+15.3%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.4%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.15.3% vs 9.8%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.3% → 9%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+2.3%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+8.1%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −0.1% a year for the price and +5.6% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (100 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
AI conclusion: Scale in upstream production and refining utilization forms the core strength, yet the commoditized integrated oil model limits pricing power and innovation edge.
Main risk: Proposed Canadian regulations capping greenhouse gas emissions from upstream oil and gas activities could limit production volumes or increase compliance costs for Imperial Oil's operations.
Bull case: Imperial Oil could use its ExxonMobil ties and technology investments in carbon capture or lower-emission fuels to adapt and maintain relevance amid tightening rules.
Bear case: Stricter emissions rules and falling oil demand could force production cuts, strand oil sands assets and shrink Imperial Oil's core business over time.
Imperial Oil recently reported record upstream production and strong refinery utilization in the latest quarter. At the same time the company is cutting its workforce by around 20 percent by the end of 2027, closing most of its Calgary operations and shifting some work to Exxon’s centers in India to adapt to advancing technology. Will these moves strengthen its cost position enough to offset any disruption in execution?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Oil & Gas Integrated · 42 stocks
Beats the industry median on 8/15 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score71 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−49.8% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)16.8% · Above median
Return on assets7.7% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months)10.9% · Above median
Operating margin (12 months)19.9% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)35.1% · Above median
Dividend yield (12 months)2.4% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.16× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Oil & Gas Integrated median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)15.2× · Pricier than median
P/B3.01× · Priciest 25%
P/S (12 months)1.20× · Pricier than median
Price / free cash flow14.2× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA6.7× · Pricier than median
PEG5.18× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 7
FUTURE (revenue growth)100· sector 100
PAST (return on equity)67· sector 53
HEALTH (low debt)92· sector 86
DIVIDEND (yield)48· sector 70
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is Imperial Oil Ltd (IMO) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 2, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $69.36 versus a price of $138.10, about 50% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of IMO?
Our model-based fair value for Imperial Oil Ltd is $69.36 (as of Nov 2, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $138.10.
What is the quality score of IMO?
Imperial Oil Ltd has a Quality Score of 71/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Imperial Oil Ltd (IMO)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $69.36 (as of Nov 2, 2026) from 25 valuation models. Cautious scenario $52.02, optimistic scenario $86.70. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Imperial Oil Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $69.36, about 50% lower versus a price of $138.10 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $52.02, optimistic scenario $86.70. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Imperial Oil Ltd (IMO)?
Imperial Oil Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $55.8B (latest available figure, as of Nov 2, 2026).
Does Imperial Oil Ltd pay a dividend?
Imperial Oil Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of 2.41% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 2, 2026).
What growth is priced into Imperial Oil Ltd (IMO)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Imperial Oil Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by +2.3 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.0 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +16.1 % per year. As of Nov 2, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of IMO use?
Our models discount Imperial Oil Ltd at 9.0 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.91, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Imperial Oil Ltd that is +2.3 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.0 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Imperial Oil Ltd (IMO) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Imperial Oil Ltd grew +16.1 % a year. The price currently implies +2.3 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Imperial Oil Ltd (IMO) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +14.0 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Imperial Oil Ltd (+2.3 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Imperial Oil Ltd (IMO)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 7.02 %: that much free cash flow Imperial Oil Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.0 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Imperial Oil Ltd (IMO)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Imperial Oil Ltd it is $69.36 per share (as of Nov 2, 2026), against a price of $138.10. It is the blended result of 25 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Imperial Oil Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 2, 2026, IMO trades above its calculated fair value: price $138.10, fair value $69.36, a gap of about −50% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of IMO?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($138.10); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($69.36). For Imperial Oil Ltd the two are $68.74 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Imperial Oil Ltd worth?
The market values Imperial Oil Ltd at about $67.0B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 2, 2026). Per share that is $138.10; our models calculate a fair value of $69.36 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about IMO?
Our models span a range for Imperial Oil Ltd: cautious scenario $52.02, base $69.36, optimistic $86.70 per share (as of Nov 2, 2026, price $138.10). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of IMO?
Imperial Oil Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 15.2 (as of Nov 2, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $69.36 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 9 fiscal years (2016 to 2025), reported earnings: 9.2. Other multiples: PEG 5.2, P/B 3.0, P/S 1.2, EV/EBITDA 6.7.
What is the PEG ratio of IMO?
The PEG ratio of Imperial Oil Ltd is 5.18 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 2, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Imperial Oil Ltd (IMO)?
Balance-sheet figures for Imperial Oil Ltd (as of Nov 2, 2026): return on equity 16.8%, debt of 0.16 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 71/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is IMO from its 52-week high?
Imperial Oil Ltd trades at $138.10, at its 52-week high of $138.10 and 67% above the low of $82.46 (as of Oct 30, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $69.36 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Imperial Oil Ltd?
From the same area (Energy) we also value Saudi Arabian Oil Company, Exxon Mobil Corporation, Chevron Corporation, PetroChina Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Imperial Oil Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 2, 2026: price $138.10, calculated fair value $69.36 (−50%), Quality Score 71/100, from 25 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of IMO calculated?
We run Imperial Oil Ltd through 25 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $69.36, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.9 % above its aggregate fair value. Imperial Oil Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Imperial Oil Ltd (IMO)?
The closing price on Oct 30, 2026 was $138.10. Our model-based fair value is $69.36, about 50% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Imperial Oil Ltd right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($86.70). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (71/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Where does the earnings growth of Imperial Oil Ltd (IMO) come from?
Earnings per share at Imperial Oil Ltd grew +12.6 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +12.3 %, EBIT margin +1.5 %, tax rate +0.2 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −1.5 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Imperial Oil Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Imperial Oil Ltd (IMO)?
The market capitalisation of Imperial Oil Ltd is $67.0B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Imperial Oil Ltd (IMO)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Imperial Oil Ltd is 1.06 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Imperial Oil Ltd (IMO)?
Earnings per share at Imperial Oil Ltd are $9.06 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 15.2). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Imperial Oil Ltd (IMO)?
The dividend yield of Imperial Oil Ltd is 2.4% (payout 36.8%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Imperial Oil Ltd (IMO)?
The net margin of Imperial Oil Ltd is 6.9% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Imperial Oil Ltd (IMO)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Imperial Oil Ltd is 16.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Imperial Oil Ltd (IMO)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Imperial Oil Ltd is 17.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Imperial Oil Ltd (IMO)?
The operating margin of Imperial Oil Ltd is 19.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Imperial Oil Ltd (IMO)?
Revenue at Imperial Oil Ltd is growing +35.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg −7.5%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Imperial Oil Ltd (IMO)?
Earnings per share at Imperial Oil Ltd are growing +378% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Imperial Oil Ltd (IMO) carry?
The net debt of Imperial Oil Ltd is $3.2B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 0.7 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Nov 2, 2026