IREN Ltd (IREN) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of IREN Ltd stock $5.13, price $21.64, that is 76.3% below the price, quality 21 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 2 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
Our calculation puts a fair price 76% below what the stock costs today.
Expensive Growth(revenue 5y +160.2 %/yr in USD)
Fair value $5.13 · Strongly overvalued
Quality 21/100
Loss-making · -194.3% net margin (TTM)
High debt
Negative free cash flow
Trails peers(0/11)
Narrow moat8/100 · thin data
Downbeat coverage
Thin data
⚠ Dilution
Risks from the AI analysis
🚩Price drop: Sector concerns over neocloud financing risks, rapid GPU depreciation and execution timing🚩Heavy reliance on Microsoft contract🚩AI infrastructure overbuild by rivals🚩Rapid GPU technology obsolescence
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 8, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $1.06 – $76.41 · fair‑value band $3.85 – $6.42 · the $21.64 price screens above the $5.13 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 8, 2026.
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IREN Limited operates in the vertically integrated data center business in Australia and Canada. The company owns and operates computing hardware, as well as electrical infrastructure and data centers.
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It also mines Bitcoin, a scarce digital asset that is created and transmitted through the operation of a peer-to-peer network of computers running the Bitcoin software. The company was formerly known as Iris Energy Limited and changed its name to IREN Limited in November 2024.
The company was incorporated in 2018 and is based in Sydney, Australia.
Stock analysis
IREN Ltd (IREN) currently trades at $21.64, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $5.13, 76% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
How firm this estimate is: it rests on 2 models at a data quality of 96/100, which puts the data coverage at low.
Scenario range: $3.85 (bear) to $6.42 (bull), the price of $21.64 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 21/100 (below-average quality), in the Financial Services sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
IREN Ltd reported revenue of A$707M in FY2026 versus A$59.0M in FY2022, a compound +86.0%/yr. Reported net income was −A$703M in FY2026.
Key figures
Market cap $8.8B Mid · P/S ratio 12.6 · EPS (TTM) $−4.08 · Net margin −99.4% · Return on equity −33.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) −4.5% (5-year average) · Operating margin −82.5% · Revenue (TTM) $695M.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 8 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 68% below its 52-week high and 20% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −11% fair-value upside, at −76%, IREN screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$3.85Fair Value $5.13Bull$6.42
Price $21.64 · Downside -76.3%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
P/B Multiple$4.55$6.06$7.5855
NCAV (Graham)$3.26$4.37$6.5354
All 2 models by family
Multiples
P/B Multiple$4.55$6.06$7.5855
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)$3.26$4.37$6.5354
The fair value above starts from this blend and is adjusted for dilution from new shares.
In the last 6 months, no officer or director bought or sold shares on the open market.
Plus 7 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.38/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+41.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+110.8%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+160.2%
Start year 2021 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 7 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+579.9%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−4.0% (2021) → −148.1% (2026)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2026 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (94 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Very negative
AI conclusion: Aggressive expansion into AI cloud infrastructure with large contracts marks the main strength, while persistent net losses, negative free cash flow and high leverage remain the central weakness.
Main risk: A reduction, delay or non-renewal of the dominant Microsoft contract could sharply cut contracted revenue and hinder financing for further AI capacity expansion.
Bull case: By using its secured power sites and vertical integration IREN could win additional diversified long-term contracts and sustain high utilisation even amid broader supply growth.
Bear case: If the Microsoft contract weakens while rivals flood the market with capacity and GPUs age quickly IREN could struggle to refinance expansion and see margins collapse on its AI offerings.
IREN has shifted aggressively from Bitcoin mining into AI cloud infrastructure, signing large contracts while taking on billions in debt to fund GPU purchases and new campuses. Sector concerns over neocloud financing risks, rapid GPU depreciation, and execution timing have weighed on the stock even as contracted revenue targets rise. Our models see the shares as overvalued. Will the AI pivot generate cash flows ahead of mounting debt obligations, or will funding needs force further dilution?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Capital Markets · 384 stocks
Beats the industry median on 0/10 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score21 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside−76.3% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on assets−4.5% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (12 months)−194.3% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (12 months)−82.5% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)−5.0% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity1.77× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Capital Markets median · lower = cheaper
P/B2.09× · Pricier than median
P/S (12 months)12.60× · Priciest 25%
PEG4.05× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 42
FUTURE (revenue growth)0· sector 68
PAST (return on equity)0· sector 38
HEALTH (low debt)11· sector 94
DIVIDEND (yield)0· sector 47
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "IREN Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/IREN
Frequently asked questions
Is IREN Ltd (IREN) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 8, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $5.13 versus a price of $21.64, about 76% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of IREN?
Our model-based fair value for IREN Ltd is $5.13 (as of Nov 8, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $21.64.
What is the quality score of IREN?
IREN Ltd has a Quality Score of 21/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for IREN Ltd (IREN)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $5.13 (as of Nov 8, 2026) from 2 valuation models. Cautious scenario $3.85, optimistic scenario $6.42. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the IREN Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $5.13, about 76% lower versus a price of $21.64 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $3.85, optimistic scenario $6.42. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of IREN Ltd (IREN)?
IREN Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $695M (latest available figure, as of Nov 8, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of IREN Ltd (IREN)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For IREN Ltd it is $5.13 per share (as of Nov 8, 2026), against a price of $21.64. It is the blended result of 2 valuation models in 2 families (Multiples, Asset-Based).
Is IREN Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 8, 2026, IREN trades above its calculated fair value: price $21.64, fair value $5.13, a gap of about −76% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of IREN?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($21.64); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($5.13). For IREN Ltd the two are $16.51 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is IREN Ltd worth?
The market values IREN Ltd at about $8.8B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 8, 2026). Per share that is $21.64; our models calculate a fair value of $5.13 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about IREN?
Our models span a range for IREN Ltd: cautious scenario $3.85, base $5.13, optimistic $6.42 per share (as of Nov 8, 2026, price $21.64). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the PEG ratio of IREN?
The PEG ratio of IREN Ltd is 4.05 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 8, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of IREN Ltd (IREN)?
Balance-sheet figures for IREN Ltd (as of Nov 8, 2026): return on equity −33.8%, debt of 1.77 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 21/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is IREN from its 52-week high?
IREN Ltd trades at $21.64, about 68% below its 52-week high of $67.84 and 20% above the low of $18.03 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $5.13 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to IREN Ltd?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value Morgan Stanley, The Goldman Sachs Group, The Charles Schwab Corporation, Interactive Brokers Group, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is IREN Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 8, 2026: price $21.64, calculated fair value $5.13 (−76%), Quality Score 21/100, from 2 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of IREN calculated?
We run IREN Ltd through 2 models from 2 families: Multiples, Asset-Based. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of $5.13 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. IREN Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of IREN Ltd (IREN)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was $21.64. Our model-based fair value is $5.13, about 76% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with IREN Ltd right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($6.42). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (21/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Key figures of IREN Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of IREN Ltd (IREN)?
The market capitalisation of IREN Ltd is $8.8B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of IREN Ltd (IREN)?
The price-to-sales ratio of IREN Ltd is 12.6 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of IREN Ltd (IREN)?
Earnings per share at IREN Ltd are $−4.08. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of IREN Ltd (IREN)?
The net margin of IREN Ltd is −99.4% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of IREN Ltd (IREN)?
The return on equity (ROE) of IREN Ltd is −33.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of IREN Ltd (IREN)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of IREN Ltd is −4.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of IREN Ltd (IREN)?
The operating margin of IREN Ltd is −82.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at IREN Ltd (IREN)?
Revenue at IREN Ltd is growing −5.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg +111%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at IREN Ltd (IREN)?
Earnings per share at IREN Ltd are growing +42.9% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does IREN Ltd (IREN) generate?
The free cash flow of IREN Ltd is −$2.2B (fiscal year 2026). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does IREN Ltd (IREN) carry?
The net debt of IREN Ltd is $1.9B (fiscal year 2026). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Thin data
Nov 8, 2026
