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IREN Ltd (IREN) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of IREN Ltd $2.98, price $47.05, upside -93.7%, quality 38 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? No
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Financial Services · US · Home Australia · ISIN AU0000185993

IL IREN Ltd logo Thin data Sep 24, 2026

IREN Ltd

IREN · US

Structural break: The valuation model sees a lasting decline in earnings power for this stock, the confidence band is broken. Treat the target with caution.

Weakest SetupStrongly overvalued and low quality.

!Fair value $2.98 · Strongly overvalued (−94%)
!Quality 38/100
!Expensive Growth (revenue 5y +219.4 %/yr)
✓Highly profitable · 20.9% net margin (TTM)
!Moderate debt · negative free cash flow
!Trails peers (2/13)
!Narrow moat 30/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$76.41 $1.06 Fair Value $2.98 Nov 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

How to read this chart

58‑month range $1.06 – $76.41 · fair‑value band $2.15 – $3.36 · the $47.05 price screens above the $2.98 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

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Company profile

IREN Limited operates in the vertically integrated data center business in Australia and Canada. The company owns and operates computing hardware, as well as electrical infrastructure and data centers.

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IREN Limited operates in the vertically integrated data center business in Australia and Canada. The company owns and operates computing hardware, as well as electrical infrastructure and data centers. It also mines Bitcoin, a scarce digital asset that is created and transmitted through the operation of a peer-to-peer network of computers running the Bitcoin software. The company was formerly known as Iris Energy Limited and changed its name to IREN Limited in November 2024. The company was incorporated in 2018 and is based in Sydney, Australia.

Stock analysis

IREN Ltd (IREN) currently trades at $47.05, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $2.98, implying the stock looks roughly 1,482.3% overvalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Earnings-Based group reads highest at a median of $8.51 per share, and 0 of the 6 models we run sit above the $47.05 price.

Bear case: the Multiples group reads lowest at $3.16, and 6 of the 6 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.

Scenario range: $2.15 (bear) to $3.36 (bull), the price of $47.05 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 38/100 (below-average quality), in the Financial Services sector.

Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.

IREN Ltd reported revenue of $501M in FY2025 versus $5.9M in FY2021, a compound +203.2%/yr. Reported net income was $86.9M in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap $13.9B · P/E ratio 61.1 · P/S ratio 10.6 · EPS (TTM) $0.7700 · Net margin 17.4% · Return on equity 7.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) −3.3% · Operating margin −64.5%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 50 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 38% below its 52-week high and 61% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −20% fair-value upside, at −94%, IREN screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $2.15 Fair Value $2.98 Bull $3.36
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 12 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.7700 per share) are deliberately not added. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
Residual Income $3.88 $3.90 $3.68 68
P/E Multiple $2.37 $3.16 $3.95 63
Graham-Dodd $1.65 $11.54 $16.19 61
All 6 models by family
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd $1.65 $11.54 $16.19 61
Lynch FV $5.96 $8.51 $11.07 59
Multiples
P/E Multiple $2.37 $3.16 $3.95 63
P/B Multiple $3.10 $4.14 $5.17 55
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $2.54 $3.41 $5.09 54
Economic Profit
Residual Income $3.88 $3.90 $3.68 68

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 38/100

Of which business quality 42 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 29

Profitability 32
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 91
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 50
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 61
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 0
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 0
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 41
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 42
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 0
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 57/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+167.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+104.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+219.4%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 6 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+783.6%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−77.8% (2020) → 4.4% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: no profitable base year
not computed

IREN screens 1,482% overvalued. Compare with Morgan Stanley, a financial holding company, →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Capital Markets · 463 stocks

Beats the industry median on 2/13 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 37 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside −94% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM) 8% · Above median
Return on assets −3% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM) 21% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM) −64% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 0% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.53× · Highest 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Capital Markets median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 61.1× · Priciest 25%
P/B 7.66× · Priciest 25%
P/S (TTM) 18.40× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA 97.4× · Priciest 25%
PEG 4.05× · Priciest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 27
FUTURE (revenue growth)0 · sector 91
PAST (return on equity)31 · sector 30
HEALTH (low debt)74 · sector 95
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 41

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Capital Markets stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Morgan Stanley, a financial holding company, MS $200.18 $312.73 +56%
The Goldman Sachs Group GS $949.49 $756.89 −20%
The Charles Schwab Corporation SCHW $100.35 $117.26 +17%
Interactive Brokers Group IBKR $91.88 $23.37 −75%
Robinhood Markets, Inc HOOD $124.25 $47.73 −62%
Macquarie Group MQG A$242.35 A$75.58 −69%
CITIC Securities Company 600030 ¥26.79 ¥18.35 −32%
Guotai Haitong Securities Co 601211 ¥17.67 ¥19.29 +9%
East Money Information Co 300059 ¥18.77 ¥4.94 −74%
CSC Financial Co 601066 ¥23.67 ¥39.83 +68%

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IREN Ltd · Fair Value
$2.98 −1482%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "IREN Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/IREN

Frequently asked questions

Is IREN Ltd (IREN) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $2.98 versus a price of $47.05, about −94% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of IREN?
Our model-based fair value for IREN Ltd is $2.98 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $47.05.
What is the quality score of IREN?
IREN Ltd has a Quality Score of 38/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for IREN Ltd (IREN)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $2.98 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 6 valuation models. Cautious scenario $2.15, optimistic scenario $3.36. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the IREN Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $2.98, about −94% upside versus a price of $47.05 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $2.15, optimistic scenario $3.36. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of IREN Ltd (IREN)?
IREN Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $757M (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of IREN Ltd (IREN)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For IREN Ltd it is $2.98 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $47.05. It is the blended result of 6 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is IREN Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, IREN trades above its calculated fair value: price $47.05, fair value $2.98, a gap of about −94% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of IREN?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($47.05); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($2.98). For IREN Ltd the two are $44.08 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is IREN Ltd worth?
The market values IREN Ltd at about $13.9B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $47.05; our models calculate a fair value of $2.98 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about IREN?
Our models span a range for IREN Ltd: cautious scenario $2.15, base $2.98, optimistic $3.36 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $47.05). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of IREN?
IREN Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 61.1 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $2.98 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 4.1, P/B 7.7, P/S 18.4, EV/EBITDA 97.4.
What is the PEG ratio of IREN?
The PEG ratio of IREN Ltd is 4.05 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 24, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of IREN Ltd (IREN)?
Balance-sheet figures for IREN Ltd (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 7.7%, debt of 0.53 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 38/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is IREN from its 52-week high?
IREN Ltd trades at $47.05, about 38% below its 52-week high of $76.41 and 61% above the low of $29.31 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $2.98 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to IREN Ltd?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value Morgan Stanley, a financial holding company,, The Goldman Sachs Group, The Charles Schwab Corporation, Interactive Brokers Group, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is IREN Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $47.05, calculated fair value $2.98 (−94%), Quality Score 38/100, from 6 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of IREN calculated?
We run IREN Ltd through 6 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $2.98, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. IREN Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of IREN Ltd (IREN)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was $47.05. Our model-based fair value is $2.98, about −94% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with IREN Ltd right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($3.36). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (38/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.

Key figures of IREN Ltd

How large is the market capitalisation of IREN Ltd (IREN)?
The market capitalisation of IREN Ltd is $13.9B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of IREN Ltd (IREN)?
The price-to-sales ratio of IREN Ltd is 10.6 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of IREN Ltd (IREN)?
Earnings per share at IREN Ltd are $0.7700 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 61.1). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of IREN Ltd (IREN)?
The net margin of IREN Ltd is 17.4% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of IREN Ltd (IREN)?
The return on equity (ROE) of IREN Ltd is 7.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of IREN Ltd (IREN)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of IREN Ltd is −3.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of IREN Ltd (IREN)?
The operating margin of IREN Ltd is −64.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast are earnings growing at IREN Ltd (IREN)?
Earnings per share at IREN Ltd are growing +42.9% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does IREN Ltd (IREN) generate?
The free cash flow of IREN Ltd is −$1.1B (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does IREN Ltd (IREN) carry?
The net debt of IREN Ltd is $400M (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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