Kaiser Reef Ltd (KAU) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 10, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Kaiser Reef Ltd stock A$0.16, price A$0.16, upside +2.8%, quality 59 out of 100. Rating: fairly valued. Calculated from audited financials with 24 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 8, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range A$0.1000 – A$0.4150 · fair‑value band A$0.1260 – A$0.2380 · the A$0.1600 price screens below the A$0.1645 fair value. As of Nov 8, 2026.
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Kaiser Reef Limited engages in the exploration, development, mining, production, and sale of gold in Australia. The company was incorporated in 2019 and is based in Subiaco, Australia.
Stock analysis
Kaiser Reef Ltd (KAU) currently trades at A$0.1600, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$0.1645, so the stock looks roughly fairly valued today (gap 2.7%).
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of A$1.20 per share, and 23 of the 24 models we run sit above the A$0.1600 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at A$0.0900, and 1 of the 24 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: A$0.1260 (bear) to A$0.2380 (bull), the price of A$0.1600 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 59/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Kaiser Reef Ltd reported revenue of A$150M in FY2025 versus A$22.8M in FY2021, a compound +60.2%/yr. Reported net income was A$16.8M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap A$96.5M (≈ $66.9M) Micro · P/E ratio 5.3 · P/S ratio 0.64 · EPS (TTM) A$0.0300 · Net margin 11.2% · Return on equity 22.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) −4.4% (5-year average) · Operating margin −0.5%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 41 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 61% below its 52-week high and 10% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at −12% fair-value upside, at 3%, KAU screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
BearA$0.1260Fair Value A$0.1645BullA$0.2380
Price A$0.1600 · Upside +2.8%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then (A$0.0258 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
FCF DCFA$0.3300A$0.4300A$0.720077
Growth DCFA$0.3100A$0.4500A$0.680076
EPVA$0.3000A$0.3300A$0.360074
All 24 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCFA$0.3300A$0.4300A$0.720077
Owner EarningsA$0.1400A$0.2100A$0.330073
5Y Revenue ExitA$0.3300A$0.5300A$0.930068
5Y EBITDA ExitA$0.5100A$0.8800A$1.6170
5Y P/E ExitA$0.3800A$0.7600A$1.2866
10Y Revenue ExitA$0.3200A$0.6100A$0.780065
10Y EBITDA ExitA$0.4300A$0.9200A$1.7762
10Y P/E ExitA$0.3600A$0.6900A$1.2359
Earnings-Based
Graham-DoddA$0.1900A$1.32A$1.8561
Lynch FVA$0.6800A$0.9700A$1.2659
PEG = 1.0A$0.6800A$0.9700A$1.2655
EPVA$0.3000A$0.3300A$0.360074
Multiples
P/E MultipleA$0.3500A$0.4700A$0.590063
P/S MultipleA$0.2800A$0.3700A$0.470058
P/B MultipleA$0.1300A$0.1700A$0.210055
EV/EBITA$0.4700A$0.6200A$0.760066
EV/EBITDAA$0.6000A$0.7900A$0.980067
EV/RevenueA$0.3000A$0.4200A$0.530054
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)A$0.0700A$0.0900A$0.140053
Growth DCF
Growth DCFA$0.3100A$0.4500A$0.680076
Rev-Margin DCFA$0.3600A$0.5900A$1.0867
Economic Profit
Residual IncomeA$0.1400A$0.1800A$0.280067
ROIC CompounderA$0.3600A$0.4600A$0.580070
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/EA$0.8400A$1.20A$1.5665
The fair value above starts from this blend and is adjusted for a cyclical peak year.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.84/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+331.3%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+69.8%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+96.8%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 3 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 3 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+52.3%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+52.3%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−78% → 17%
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−8.5%
The company could shrink this much every year for the next five years and today's price would still be justified.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (Australia: IMF forecast 3.0% a year to 2030, 2.9% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −11.2% a year for the price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Gold · 207 stocks
Beats the industry median on 10/13 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score59 · Above median
Fair Value upside+2.8% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)22.6% · Above median
Return on assets11.8% · Above median
Net margin (12 months)11.2% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (12 months)−0.5% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)107.9% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.04× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Gold median · lower = cheaper
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Is Kaiser Reef Ltd (KAU) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 8, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of A$0.1645 versus a price of A$0.1600, about +3% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of KAU?
Our model-based fair value for Kaiser Reef Ltd is A$0.1645 (as of Nov 8, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: A$0.1600.
What is the quality score of KAU?
Kaiser Reef Ltd has a Quality Score of 59/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Kaiser Reef Ltd (KAU)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of A$0.1645 (as of Nov 8, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario A$0.1260, optimistic scenario A$0.2380. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Kaiser Reef Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at A$0.1645, about +3% upside versus a price of A$0.1600 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario A$0.1260, optimistic scenario A$0.2380. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Kaiser Reef Ltd (KAU)?
Kaiser Reef Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about A$150M (latest available figure, as of Nov 8, 2026).
What growth is priced into Kaiser Reef Ltd (KAU)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Kaiser Reef Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by -8.5 % per year for five years (discount rate 13.3 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +96.8 % per year. As of Nov 8, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of KAU use?
Our models discount Kaiser Reef Ltd at 13.3 %: a base by market capitalisation (micro), damped by beta 1.24, country premium for Australia. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Kaiser Reef Ltd that is -8.5 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (13.3 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Kaiser Reef Ltd (KAU) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Kaiser Reef Ltd grew +96.8 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of -8.5 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Kaiser Reef Ltd (KAU) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +9.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Kaiser Reef Ltd (-8.5 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Kaiser Reef Ltd (KAU)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 13.51 %: that much free cash flow Kaiser Reef Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (13.3 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Kaiser Reef Ltd (KAU)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Kaiser Reef Ltd it is A$0.1645 per share (as of Nov 8, 2026), against a price of A$0.1600. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models in 7 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is Kaiser Reef Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 8, 2026, KAU trades below its calculated fair value: price A$0.1600, fair value A$0.1645, a gap of about +3% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of KAU?
No. The price is what the market pays today (A$0.1600); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (A$0.1645). For Kaiser Reef Ltd the two are A$0.0045 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Kaiser Reef Ltd worth?
The market values Kaiser Reef Ltd at about A$96.5M (market capitalisation, as of Nov 8, 2026). Per share that is A$0.1600; our models calculate a fair value of A$0.1645 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about KAU?
Our models span a range for Kaiser Reef Ltd: cautious scenario A$0.1260, base A$0.1645, optimistic A$0.2380 per share (as of Nov 8, 2026, price A$0.1600). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of KAU?
Kaiser Reef Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 5.3 (as of Nov 8, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of A$0.1645 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 1.2, P/S 0.6, EV/EBITDA 1.3.
How solid is the balance sheet of Kaiser Reef Ltd (KAU)?
Balance-sheet figures for Kaiser Reef Ltd (as of Nov 8, 2026): return on equity 22.6%, debt of 0.04 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 59/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is KAU from its 52-week high?
Kaiser Reef Ltd trades at A$0.1600, about 61% below its 52-week high of A$0.4150 and 10% above the low of A$0.1450 (as of Nov 10, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of A$0.1645 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Kaiser Reef Ltd?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Newmont Corporation, Zijin Mining Group, Agnico Eagle Mines Limited, Wheaton Precious Metals Corp, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Kaiser Reef Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 8, 2026: price A$0.1600, calculated fair value A$0.1645 (+3%), Quality Score 59/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of KAU calculated?
We run Kaiser Reef Ltd through 24 models from 7 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of A$0.1645 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.7% above its aggregate fair value. Kaiser Reef Ltd currently trades 3% below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Kaiser Reef Ltd (KAU)?
The closing price on Nov 10, 2026 was A$0.1600. Our model-based fair value is A$0.1645, about +3% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Kaiser Reef Ltd right now?
The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. A fairly wide model range (A$0.1260 to A$0.2380) leaves room in how you read the outcome. Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual.
Key figures of Kaiser Reef Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Kaiser Reef Ltd (KAU)?
The market capitalisation of Kaiser Reef Ltd is A$96.5M (≈ $66.9M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Kaiser Reef Ltd (KAU)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Kaiser Reef Ltd is 0.64 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Kaiser Reef Ltd (KAU)?
Earnings per share at Kaiser Reef Ltd are A$0.0300 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 5.3). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Kaiser Reef Ltd (KAU)?
The net margin of Kaiser Reef Ltd is 11.2% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Kaiser Reef Ltd (KAU)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Kaiser Reef Ltd is 22.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Kaiser Reef Ltd (KAU)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Kaiser Reef Ltd is −4.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Kaiser Reef Ltd (KAU)?
The operating margin of Kaiser Reef Ltd is −0.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Kaiser Reef Ltd (KAU)?
Revenue at Kaiser Reef Ltd is growing +108% versus a year earlier (3y avg +69.8%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much net cash does Kaiser Reef Ltd (KAU) hold?
Kaiser Reef Ltd holds more cash than debt, A$26.8M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Thin data
Nov 8, 2026