Kedawung Setia Industrial Tbk (KDSI) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 9, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Kedawung Setia Industrial Tbk stock IDR 530, price IDR 444, upside +19.3%, quality 49 out of 100. Rating: undervalued. Calculated from audited financials with 24 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 3, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 149.29 IDR – 471.49 IDR · fair‑value band 366.00 IDR – 693.19 IDR · the 444.00 IDR price screens below the 529.59 IDR fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 3, 2026.
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PT Kedawung Setia Industrial Tbk produces and sells corrugated cardboard boxes, enamel roofing panels, and enamel-coated household appliances in Indonesia. It operates through Houseware, Carton Box, and Others segments.
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The company also engages in the production of egg tray, and export of its products. The company was founded in 1973 and is headquartered in Surabaya, Indonesia. PT Kedawung Setia Industrial Tbk operates as a subsidiary of PT Kitasubur Utama.
Stock analysis
Kedawung Setia Industrial Tbk (KDSI) currently trades at 444.00 IDR, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 529.59 IDR, implying the stock looks roughly 16% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of 656.69 IDR per share, and 14 of the 24 models we run sit above the 444.00 IDR price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at 150.35 IDR, and 10 of the 24 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: 366.00 IDR (bear) to 693.19 IDR (bull), the price of 444.00 IDR sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 49/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Kedawung Setia Industrial Tbk reported revenue of 2.1T IDR in FY2025 versus 2.2T IDR in FY2021, a compound −1.2%/yr. Reported net income was 32.3B IDR in FY2025, compounding −17.4%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 720B IDR (≈ $40.0M) Micro · P/E ratio 2.5 · P/S ratio 0.04 · EPS (TTM) 179.34 IDR · Dividend yield 4.5% · Net margin 1.5% · Return on equity 8.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) 10.1% (5-year average).
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 35 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 5% below its 52-week high and 9% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −18% fair-value upside, at 19%, KDSI screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear366.00 IDRFair Value 529.59 IDRBull693.19 IDR
Price 444.00 IDR · Upside +19.3%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then (136.64 IDR per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
+3.2%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−3.2%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.1%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +2.2% a year
Revenue growth 25 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.6%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in IDR ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in IDR: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
−29.4%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−33.9%
Dividend (yield on the price)4.5%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−33.9% vs −15.9%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.6% → 3%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−1.2%
The company could shrink this much every year for the next five years and today's price would still be justified.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (Indonesia: IMF forecast 2.6% a year to 2030, 2.9% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −3.7% a year for the price.
Compare Kedawung Setia Industrial Tbk with another stock
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Packaging & Containers · 262 stocks
Beats the industry median on 10/14 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score49 · Below median
Fair Value upside+19.3% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)8.1% · Above median
Return on assets2.7% · Below median
Net margin (12 months)2.9% · Below median
Operating margin (12 months)6.2% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)23.7% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (12 months)4.5% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.02× · Lowest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Packaging & Containers median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)2.5× · Cheapest 25%
P/B0.91× · Cheaper than median
P/S (12 months)0.33× · Cheapest 25%
Price / free cash flow (fiscal year)8.8× · Cheaper than median
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Is Kedawung Setia Industrial Tbk (KDSI) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 3, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 529.59 IDR versus a price of 444.00 IDR, about +19% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of KDSI?
Our model-based fair value for Kedawung Setia Industrial Tbk is 529.59 IDR (as of Nov 3, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 444.00 IDR.
What is the quality score of KDSI?
Kedawung Setia Industrial Tbk has a Quality Score of 49/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Kedawung Setia Industrial Tbk (KDSI)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 529.59 IDR (as of Nov 3, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario 366.00 IDR, optimistic scenario 693.19 IDR. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Kedawung Setia Industrial Tbk stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 529.59 IDR, about +19% upside versus a price of 444.00 IDR (undervalued). Cautious scenario 366.00 IDR, optimistic scenario 693.19 IDR. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Kedawung Setia Industrial Tbk (KDSI)?
Kedawung Setia Industrial Tbk reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 2.2T IDR (latest available figure, as of Nov 3, 2026).
Does Kedawung Setia Industrial Tbk pay a dividend?
Kedawung Setia Industrial Tbk currently shows a dividend yield of 4.50% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 3, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Kedawung Setia Industrial Tbk (KDSI) and when is the ex-dividend date?
Kedawung Setia Industrial Tbk pays a dividend of 20.00 IDR per share a year, a dividend yield of 4.5%. The last ex-dividend date was May 4, 2026. A dividend has been paid every year since at least 2021. The payout ratio is 11.2% of earnings. Free cash flow covers the dividend 2.51 times. Our assessment: Well covered. A low payout and the dividend is fully funded by free cash flow, a comfortable, sustainable dividend.
What growth is priced into Kedawung Setia Industrial Tbk (KDSI)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Kedawung Setia Industrial Tbk would have to grow free cash flow by -1.2 % per year for five years (discount rate 12.0 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +2.1 % per year. As of Nov 3, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of KDSI use?
Our models discount Kedawung Setia Industrial Tbk at 12.0 %: a base by market capitalisation (nano), country premium for Indonesia. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Kedawung Setia Industrial Tbk that is -1.2 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (12.0 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Kedawung Setia Industrial Tbk (KDSI) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Kedawung Setia Industrial Tbk grew +2.1 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of -1.2 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Kedawung Setia Industrial Tbk (KDSI) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +9.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Kedawung Setia Industrial Tbk (-1.2 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Kedawung Setia Industrial Tbk (KDSI)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 11.32 %: that much free cash flow Kedawung Setia Industrial Tbk produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (12.0 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Kedawung Setia Industrial Tbk (KDSI)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Kedawung Setia Industrial Tbk it is 529.59 IDR per share (as of Nov 3, 2026), against a price of 444.00 IDR. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models in 8 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is Kedawung Setia Industrial Tbk stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 3, 2026, KDSI trades below its calculated fair value: price 444.00 IDR, fair value 529.59 IDR, a gap of about +19% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of KDSI?
No. The price is what the market pays today (444.00 IDR); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (529.59 IDR). For Kedawung Setia Industrial Tbk the two are 85.59 IDR per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Kedawung Setia Industrial Tbk worth?
The market values Kedawung Setia Industrial Tbk at about 720B IDR (market capitalisation, as of Nov 3, 2026). Per share that is 444.00 IDR; our models calculate a fair value of 529.59 IDR per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about KDSI?
Our models span a range for Kedawung Setia Industrial Tbk: cautious scenario 366.00 IDR, base 529.59 IDR, optimistic 693.19 IDR per share (as of Nov 3, 2026, price 444.00 IDR). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of KDSI?
Kedawung Setia Industrial Tbk trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 2.5 (as of Nov 3, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 529.59 IDR is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 0.9, P/S 0.3, EV/EBITDA 4.6.
How solid is the balance sheet of Kedawung Setia Industrial Tbk (KDSI)?
Balance-sheet figures for Kedawung Setia Industrial Tbk (as of Nov 3, 2026): return on equity 8.1%, debt of 0.02 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 49/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is KDSI from its 52-week high?
Kedawung Setia Industrial Tbk trades at 444.00 IDR, about 5% below its 52-week high of 468.00 IDR and 9% above the low of 407.64 IDR (as of Nov 9, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 529.59 IDR is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Kedawung Setia Industrial Tbk?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Smurfit Westrock Plc,, Packaging Corporation, Amcor plc, International Paper Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Kedawung Setia Industrial Tbk stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 3, 2026: price 444.00 IDR, calculated fair value 529.59 IDR (+19%), Quality Score 49/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of KDSI calculated?
We run Kedawung Setia Industrial Tbk through 24 models from 8 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of 529.59 IDR builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. Kedawung Setia Industrial Tbk currently trades 16% below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Kedawung Setia Industrial Tbk (KDSI)?
The closing price on Nov 9, 2026 was 444.00 IDR. Our model-based fair value is 529.59 IDR, about +19% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Kedawung Setia Industrial Tbk right now?
A fairly wide model range (366.00 IDR to 693.19 IDR) leaves room in how you read the outcome. Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual.
Where does the earnings growth of Kedawung Setia Industrial Tbk (KDSI) come from?
Earnings per share at Kedawung Setia Industrial Tbk grew −0.6 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share −5.6 %, EBIT margin +2.3 %, tax rate −0.4 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +3.3 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Kedawung Setia Industrial Tbk
How large is the market capitalisation of Kedawung Setia Industrial Tbk (KDSI)?
The market capitalisation of Kedawung Setia Industrial Tbk is 720B IDR (≈ $40.0M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Kedawung Setia Industrial Tbk (KDSI)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Kedawung Setia Industrial Tbk is 0.04 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Kedawung Setia Industrial Tbk (KDSI)?
Earnings per share at Kedawung Setia Industrial Tbk are 179.34 IDR (price ÷ EPS = P/E 2.5). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Kedawung Setia Industrial Tbk (KDSI)?
The dividend yield of Kedawung Setia Industrial Tbk is 4.5% (payout 11.2%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Kedawung Setia Industrial Tbk (KDSI)?
The net margin of Kedawung Setia Industrial Tbk is 1.5% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Kedawung Setia Industrial Tbk (KDSI)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Kedawung Setia Industrial Tbk is 8.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Kedawung Setia Industrial Tbk (KDSI)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Kedawung Setia Industrial Tbk is 10.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Kedawung Setia Industrial Tbk (KDSI)?
The operating margin of Kedawung Setia Industrial Tbk is 6.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Kedawung Setia Industrial Tbk (KDSI)?
Revenue at Kedawung Setia Industrial Tbk is growing +23.7% versus a year earlier (3y avg −3.2%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Kedawung Setia Industrial Tbk (KDSI)?
Earnings per share at Kedawung Setia Industrial Tbk are growing −24.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Kedawung Setia Industrial Tbk (KDSI) carry?
The net debt of Kedawung Setia Industrial Tbk is 25.5B IDR (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 0.3 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Nov 3, 2026