EN DE

PT Kedawung Setia Industrial Tbk (KDSI) Fair Value & Analysis

Consumer Cyclical · ID · Market cap 713B IDR

PK PT Kedawung Setia Industrial Tbk KDSI · JK
Price460.00 IDR
Fair Value304.28 IDR
Upside-33.9%
Quality42/100
Watch PT Kedawung Setia Industrial Tbk for free, get notified when fair value or trend changes. Watch for free
Healthy Growth
Thin margins · 1.4% net margin
Low debt · generates free cash flow
4.55% dividend yield
Mixed vs. peers (5/11)
Narrow moat 30/100
Evidence: High Range 216.34 IDR – 360.58 IDR Share as image

Fair value as of: Jul 15, 2026

From 25 valuation models · updated 26 days ago

Share price +4.5% over the past month.

Below-average quality, and screening another 34% overvalued on our models.

What matters now

  • The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (360.58 IDR). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
  • Weak quality (42/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
Share this valuation: 𝕏 WhatsApp

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

471.49 IDR 136.12 IDR Fair Value 304.28 IDR Feb 2021 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 15, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range 136.12 IDR – 471.49 IDR · fair‑value band 216.34 IDR – 360.58 IDR · the 460.00 IDR price screens above the 304.28 IDR fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 15, 2026.

Full chart & analysis →

Which stocks are undervalued right now? Check free Discover now →

Analysis

PT Kedawung Setia Industrial Tbk (KDSI) currently trades at 460.00 IDR, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 304.28 IDR, implying the stock looks roughly 33.9% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 42/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).

Over the trailing twelve months, PT Kedawung Setia Industrial Tbk generated revenue of 2.1T IDR at a net margin of 1.4%. Revenue declined 11.5% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 3.6%. Net debt stands at 25.5B IDR. Fundamentals as of Jul 15, 2026

Our scenario range runs from 216.34 IDR (bear case) to 360.58 IDR (bull case); at 460.00 IDR, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 13% below its 52-week high and 23% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at -22% fair-value upside, at -34%, KDSI screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
Growth DCF 618.52 IDR 895.54 IDR 1,301 IDR 80
Residual Income 375.27 IDR 379.40 IDR 355.70 IDR 76
Rev-Margin DCF 458.88 IDR 677.32 IDR 919.60 IDR 74
All 25 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF 601.85 IDR 903.19 IDR 1,367 IDR 38
Owner Earnings 55.77 IDR 72.61 IDR 98.51 IDR 31
5Y Revenue Exit 458.88 IDR 671.33 IDR 933.39 IDR 39
5Y EBITDA Exit 535.64 IDR 810.57 IDR 1,121 IDR 41
5Y P/E Exit 369.43 IDR 509.09 IDR 647.97 IDR 38
10Y Revenue Exit 492.85 IDR 697.78 IDR 954.67 IDR 36
10Y EBITDA Exit 554.03 IDR 795.07 IDR 1,097 IDR 37
10Y P/E Exit 446.97 IDR 584.42 IDR 738.01 IDR 35
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd 135.75 IDR 357.98 IDR 467.55 IDR 54
PEG = 1.0 68.75 IDR 98.22 IDR 127.68 IDR 46
EPV 320.67 IDR 373.12 IDR 419.74 IDR 59
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM 356.67 IDR 765.83 IDR 1,310 IDR 70
DDM Multi-Stage 356.67 IDR 561.30 IDR 790.84 IDR 61
Multiples
P/E Multiple 254.52 IDR 339.37 IDR 424.21 IDR 63
P/S Multiple 254.52 IDR 339.37 IDR 424.21 IDR 58
P/B Multiple 254.52 IDR 339.37 IDR 424.21 IDR 55
EV/EBIT 463.91 IDR 610.73 IDR 757.54 IDR 53
EV/EBITDA 565.02 IDR 745.54 IDR 926.06 IDR 54
EV/Revenue 405.18 IDR 568.78 IDR 732.38 IDR 43
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) 244.88 IDR 328.14 IDR 489.76 IDR 50
Growth DCF
Growth DCF 618.52 IDR 895.54 IDR 1,301 IDR 80
Rev-Margin DCF 458.88 IDR 677.32 IDR 919.60 IDR 74
Economic Profit
Residual Income 375.27 IDR 379.40 IDR 355.70 IDR 76
ROIC Compounder 320.67 IDR 373.12 IDR 419.74 IDR 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E 203.28 IDR 290.40 IDR 377.52 IDR 68

Widest divergence: Growth DCF (677.32 IDR) versus Growth Earnings (290.40 IDR). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

Notify me when KDSI reaches fair value

Free. You confirm by email (double opt-in) and can unsubscribe anytime in one click.

Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) 2.1T IDR
Revenue growth (YoY) -11.5%
Net margin 1.4%
Return on equity 3.6%
Free cash flow 81.4B IDR FY2025
P/E ratio 2.4
More key figures
Operating margin 3.1%
EPS (TTM) 179.34 IDR
Dividend yield 4.7%
EPS growth (YoY) -24.0%
Net debt 25.5B IDR FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 15, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 42/100

Of which business quality 45 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 58

Profitability 43
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 14
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 48
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 67
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 93
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 92
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 44
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 45
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 0
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

PT Kedawung Setia Industrial Tbk produces and sells corrugated cardboard boxes, enamel roofing panels, and enamel-coated household appliances in Indonesia. It operates through Houseware, Carton Box, and Others segments. The company also engages in the production of egg tray, and export of its products.

Full company description

PT Kedawung Setia Industrial Tbk produces and sells corrugated cardboard boxes, enamel roofing panels, and enamel-coated household appliances in Indonesia. It operates through Houseware, Carton Box, and Others segments. The company also engages in the production of egg tray, and export of its products. The company was founded in 1973 and is headquartered in Surabaya, Indonesia. PT Kedawung Setia Industrial Tbk operates as a subsidiary of PT Kitasubur Utama.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

PT Kedawung Setia Industrial Tbk reported revenue of 2.1T IDR in FY2025 versus 2.2T IDR in FY2021, a compound −1.2%/yr. Reported net income was 32.3B IDR in FY2025, compounding −17.4%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 62/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
2.1T IDR
Latest YoY
+3.2%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
−3.2%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+2.1%
Avg. growth/yr (25Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+6.6%
Revenue −1.2%/yr
FY21 2.2T IDR
FY22 2.4T IDR
FY23 2.1T IDR
FY24 2.1T IDR
FY25 2.1T IDR
Net income −17.4%/yr
FY21 69.3B IDR
FY22 76.2B IDR
FY23 79.5B IDR
FY24 84.9B IDR
FY25 32.3B IDR
Character of growth · EPS growth decomposed (2014-2025) −0.6 % p.a.
Revenue per share −5.6 pp

of which total revenue +1.9 pp · buybacks/dilution −7.6 pp

EBIT margin +2.3 pp
Tax rate −0.4 pp
Residual (interest, one-offs) +3.1 pp

Absolute contributions in percentage points per year; they sum to the EPS growth rate. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).

KDSI screens 34% overvalued. Compare with Stora Enso Oyj →

Run the numbers yourself: free valuation calculators
DCF CalculatorGraham NumberPeter Lynch FormulaDDM CalculatorFama-French ModelIntrinsic Value
Share or link this analysis
𝕏 Post WhatsApp LinkedIn Reddit
For bloggers & editors: embed code + live data

For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.

PT Kedawung Setia Industrial Tbk · Fair Value
304.28 IDR −34%Fair Value
Calculator →

Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "PT Kedawung Setia Industrial Tbk Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/KDSI

Peer Group

Packaging & Containers · 272 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 42 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside −34% · Below median
Return on equity (TTM) 4% · Below median
Return on assets 3% · Above median
Net margin (TTM) 1% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM) 3% · Below median
Revenue growth -12% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (TTM) 4.6% · Top 25%
Debt / equity 0.02× · Lower than 75% of peers

Valuation Multiples vs Packaging & Containers median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 2.5× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
P/FCF 0.0× · Cheaper than 75% of peers

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 0 · sector 9
FUTURE 0 · sector 1
PAST 14 · sector 21
HEALTH 99 · sector 92
DIVIDEND 91 · sector 42

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

Similar stocks

10 more Packaging & Containers stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 15, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Stora Enso Oyj STER kr 101.90 kr 126.39 +24%
ShenZhen YUTO Packaging Technology Co 002831 ¥29.10 ¥20.88 -28%
SCG Packaging Public Company SCGP 29.00 THB 16.12 THB -44%
AblePrint Technology Co 7734 2,850 TWD 661.69 TWD -77%
PT Fajar Surya Wisesa Tbk, FASW 5,312 IDR 1,194 IDR -78%
Taiwan Hon Chuan Enterprise Co 9939 132.50 TWD 127.06 TWD -4%
Time Technoplast Limited TIMETECHNO ₹206.82 ₹161.42 -22%
EPL Limited 500135 ₹222.25 ₹111.65 -50%
Ton Yi Industrial Corp 9907 15.15 TWD 23.17 TWD +53%
Dongwon Systems Corporation 014820 19,330 KRW 31,473 KRW +63%

Compare PT Kedawung Setia Industrial Tbk with another stock

Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.

Free, no sign-up

Explore undervalued stocks

More undervalued Consumer Cyclical stocks →

All undervalued stocks TechnologyFinancial ServicesHealthcareConsumer CyclicalConsumer DefensiveCommunication ServicesIndustrialsEnergyBasic MaterialsReal EstateUtilities Deeply Undervalued StocksUndervalued Blue-Chip StocksUndervalued Small-Cap StocksUndervalued Dividend Stocks

Frequently asked questions

Is PT Kedawung Setia Industrial Tbk (KDSI) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Jul 15, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 304.28 IDR versus a price of 460.00 IDR, about −34% (overvalued).
What is the fair value of KDSI?
Our model-based fair value for PT Kedawung Setia Industrial Tbk is 304.28 IDR (as of Jul 15, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is 460.00 IDR.
What is the quality score of KDSI?
PT Kedawung Setia Industrial Tbk has a Quality Score of 42/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of PT Kedawung Setia Industrial Tbk (KDSI)?
PT Kedawung Setia Industrial Tbk reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 2.1T IDR (latest available figure, as of Jul 15, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of KDSI?
The net profit margin of PT Kedawung Setia Industrial Tbk is about 1.4%, meaning it keeps roughly 1.4% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does PT Kedawung Setia Industrial Tbk pay a dividend?
PT Kedawung Setia Industrial Tbk currently shows a dividend yield of about 4.65% relative to its recent price (as of Jul 15, 2026).

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

14 days Pro free · no card

Track PT Kedawung Setia Industrial Tbk and try Pro for 14 days

One email gets you 14 days of full Pro (review alerts, the 35,000+ stock screener, the diversification check) plus the monthly Top-25 report of the most undervalued quality stocks. No card, cancel anytime.

Zero risk: nothing is ever charged. After 14 days you decide whether to stay.