Kedawung Setia Industrial Tbk (KDSI) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 24, 2026: fair value of Kedawung Setia Industrial Tbk IDR 339, price IDR 466, upside -27.2%, quality 49 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 140.51 IDR – 471.49 IDR · fair‑value band 254.52 IDR – 424.21 IDR · the 466.00 IDR price screens above the 339.37 IDR fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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PT Kedawung Setia Industrial Tbk produces and sells corrugated cardboard boxes, enamel roofing panels, and enamel-coated household appliances in Indonesia. It operates through Houseware, Carton Box, and Others segments. The company also engages in the production of egg tray, and export of its products.
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PT Kedawung Setia Industrial Tbk produces and sells corrugated cardboard boxes, enamel roofing panels, and enamel-coated household appliances in Indonesia. It operates through Houseware, Carton Box, and Others segments. The company also engages in the production of egg tray, and export of its products. The company was founded in 1973 and is headquartered in Surabaya, Indonesia. PT Kedawung Setia Industrial Tbk operates as a subsidiary of PT Kitasubur Utama.
Stock analysis
Kedawung Setia Industrial Tbk (KDSI) currently trades at 466.00 IDR, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 339.37 IDR, implying the stock looks roughly 37.3% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of 693.03 IDR per share, and 14 of the 25 models we run sit above the 466.00 IDR price.
Bear case: the Growth Earnings group reads lowest at 290.40 IDR, and 11 of the 25 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: 254.52 IDR (bear) to 424.21 IDR (bull), the price of 466.00 IDR sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 49/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Kedawung Setia Industrial Tbk reported revenue of 2.1T IDR in FY2025 versus 2.2T IDR in FY2021, a compound −1.2%/yr. Reported net income was 32.3B IDR in FY2025, compounding −17.4%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 755B IDR (≈ $42.2M) · P/E ratio 2.6 · P/S ratio 0.04 · EPS (TTM) 179.34 IDR · Dividend yield 4.3% · Net margin 1.5% · Return on equity 8.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) 10.1%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 43 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades at its 52-week high and 14% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −21% fair-value upside, at −27%, KDSI screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear 254.52 IDRFair Value 339.37 IDRBull 424.21 IDR
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (117.00 IDR per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
+3.2%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−3.2%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.1%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +2.2% a year
Revenue growth 25 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.6%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in IDR ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in IDR: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
−29.6%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−33.9%
Dividend (yield on the price)4.3%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−34% vs −16%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.6% → 3%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Price in line with expectations
The price assumes about as much growth as the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−0.2%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (Indonesia: IMF forecast 2.6% a year to 2030, 2.9% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −2.8% a year for the price.
Compare Kedawung Setia Industrial Tbk with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Packaging & Containers · 272 stocks
Beats the industry median on 11/14 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score49 · Below median
Fair Value upside−27% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)8% · Above median
Return on assets5% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)3% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)6% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth24% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)4.3% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.02× · Lowest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Packaging & Containers median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)2.6× · Cheapest 25%
P/B0.95× · Cheaper than median
P/S (TTM)0.34× · Cheaper than median
P/FCF0.0× · Cheapest 25%
EV/EBITDA4.8× · Cheaper than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 21
FUTURE (revenue growth)100· sector 3
PAST (return on equity)32· sector 24
HEALTH (low debt)99· sector 92
DIVIDEND (yield)86· sector 46
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is Kedawung Setia Industrial Tbk (KDSI) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 339.37 IDR versus a price of 466.00 IDR, about −27% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of KDSI?
Our model-based fair value for Kedawung Setia Industrial Tbk is 339.37 IDR (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 466.00 IDR.
What is the quality score of KDSI?
Kedawung Setia Industrial Tbk has a Quality Score of 49/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Kedawung Setia Industrial Tbk (KDSI)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 339.37 IDR (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 25 valuation models. Cautious scenario 254.52 IDR, optimistic scenario 424.21 IDR. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Kedawung Setia Industrial Tbk stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 339.37 IDR, about −27% upside versus a price of 466.00 IDR (overvalued). Cautious scenario 254.52 IDR, optimistic scenario 424.21 IDR. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Kedawung Setia Industrial Tbk (KDSI)?
Kedawung Setia Industrial Tbk reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 2.2T IDR (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Kedawung Setia Industrial Tbk pay a dividend?
Kedawung Setia Industrial Tbk currently shows a dividend yield of about 4.29% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Kedawung Setia Industrial Tbk (KDSI)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Kedawung Setia Industrial Tbk would have to grow free cash flow by -0.2 % per year for five years (discount rate 12.0 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +2.1 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of KDSI use?
Our models discount Kedawung Setia Industrial Tbk at 12.0 %: a base by market capitalisation (nano), country premium for Indonesia. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Kedawung Setia Industrial Tbk that is -0.2 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (12.0 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Kedawung Setia Industrial Tbk (KDSI) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Kedawung Setia Industrial Tbk grew +2.1 % a year. The price currently implies -0.2 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Kedawung Setia Industrial Tbk (KDSI) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +3.3 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Kedawung Setia Industrial Tbk (-0.2 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Kedawung Setia Industrial Tbk (KDSI)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 10.78 %: that much free cash flow Kedawung Setia Industrial Tbk produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (12.0 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Kedawung Setia Industrial Tbk (KDSI)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Kedawung Setia Industrial Tbk it is 339.37 IDR per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of 466.00 IDR. It is the blended result of 25 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Kedawung Setia Industrial Tbk stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, KDSI trades above its calculated fair value: price 466.00 IDR, fair value 339.37 IDR, a gap of about −27% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of KDSI?
No. The price is what the market pays today (466.00 IDR); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (339.37 IDR). For Kedawung Setia Industrial Tbk the two are 126.63 IDR per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Kedawung Setia Industrial Tbk worth?
The market values Kedawung Setia Industrial Tbk at about 755B IDR (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is 466.00 IDR; our models calculate a fair value of 339.37 IDR per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about KDSI?
Our models span a range for Kedawung Setia Industrial Tbk: cautious scenario 254.52 IDR, base 339.37 IDR, optimistic 424.21 IDR per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price 466.00 IDR). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of KDSI?
Kedawung Setia Industrial Tbk trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 2.6 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 339.37 IDR is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 1.0, P/S 0.3, EV/EBITDA 4.8.
How solid is the balance sheet of Kedawung Setia Industrial Tbk (KDSI)?
Balance-sheet figures for Kedawung Setia Industrial Tbk (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 8.1%, debt of 0.02 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 49/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is KDSI from its 52-week high?
Kedawung Setia Industrial Tbk trades at 466.00 IDR, at its 52-week high of 468.00 IDR and 14% above the low of 407.64 IDR (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 339.37 IDR is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Kedawung Setia Industrial Tbk?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Smurfit Westrock Plc,, Packaging Corporation, International Paper Company, Ball Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Kedawung Setia Industrial Tbk stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price 466.00 IDR, calculated fair value 339.37 IDR (−27%), Quality Score 49/100, from 25 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of KDSI calculated?
We run Kedawung Setia Industrial Tbk through 25 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 339.37 IDR, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Kedawung Setia Industrial Tbk itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Kedawung Setia Industrial Tbk (KDSI)?
The closing price on Sep 24, 2026 was 466.00 IDR. Our model-based fair value is 339.37 IDR, about −27% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Kedawung Setia Industrial Tbk right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (424.21 IDR). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (49/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual.
Where does the earnings growth of Kedawung Setia Industrial Tbk (KDSI) come from?
Earnings per share at Kedawung Setia Industrial Tbk grew −0.6 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share −5.6 %, EBIT margin +2.3 %, tax rate −0.4 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +3.3 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Kedawung Setia Industrial Tbk
How large is the market capitalisation of Kedawung Setia Industrial Tbk (KDSI)?
The market capitalisation of Kedawung Setia Industrial Tbk is 755B IDR (≈ $42.2M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Kedawung Setia Industrial Tbk (KDSI)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Kedawung Setia Industrial Tbk is 0.04 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Kedawung Setia Industrial Tbk (KDSI)?
Earnings per share at Kedawung Setia Industrial Tbk are 179.34 IDR (price ÷ EPS = P/E 2.6). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Kedawung Setia Industrial Tbk (KDSI)?
The dividend yield of Kedawung Setia Industrial Tbk is 4.3% (payout 11.2%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Kedawung Setia Industrial Tbk (KDSI)?
The net margin of Kedawung Setia Industrial Tbk is 1.5% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Kedawung Setia Industrial Tbk (KDSI)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Kedawung Setia Industrial Tbk is 8.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Kedawung Setia Industrial Tbk (KDSI)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Kedawung Setia Industrial Tbk is 10.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Kedawung Setia Industrial Tbk (KDSI)?
The operating margin of Kedawung Setia Industrial Tbk is 6.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Kedawung Setia Industrial Tbk (KDSI)?
Revenue at Kedawung Setia Industrial Tbk is growing +23.7% versus a year earlier (3y avg −3.2%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Kedawung Setia Industrial Tbk (KDSI)?
Earnings per share at Kedawung Setia Industrial Tbk are growing −24.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Kedawung Setia Industrial Tbk (KDSI) carry?
The net debt of Kedawung Setia Industrial Tbk is 25.5B IDR (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 0.3 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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