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Lakes Oil NL (LKO) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Nov 9, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Lakes Oil NL stock A$0.09, price A$0.30, that is 71.7% below the price, quality 27 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with one of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

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Energy AU · ISIN AU000000LKO0

LO Lakes Oil NL logo Thin data Nov 3, 2026

Lakes Oil NL

LKO · AU
Very expensive, weak quality

Our calculation puts a fair price 72% below what the stock costs today.

Low debt
Mixed Growth (revenue 5y +13.0 %/yr in AUD)
Fair value A$0.0850 · Strongly overvalued
Quality 27/100
Negative free cash flow
Trails peers (2/9)
Narrow moat 8/100 · thin data
Thin data
⟳ Cyclical⚠ Dilution
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

A$2.00 A$0.2250 Fair Value A$0.0850 Aug 2021 Nov 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 3, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range A$0.2250 – A$2.00 · fair‑value band A$0.0595 – A$0.1190 · the A$0.3000 price screens above the A$0.0850 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 3, 2026.

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Company profile

Lakes Blue Energy NL, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the exploration of oil and gas properties. The company holds interests in petroleum and mineral exploration rights in Victoria, South Australia, and Queensland; Papua New Guinea; and the United States.

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The company was formerly known as Lakes Oil NL and changed its name to Lakes Blue Energy NL in March 2021. Lakes Blue Energy NL was incorporated in 1946 and is based in Sydney, Australia.

Stock analysis

Lakes Oil NL (LKO) currently trades at A$0.3000, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$0.0850, 72% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

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Valuation

How firm this estimate is: it rests on 1 models at a data quality of 88/100, which puts the data coverage at low.

Scenario range: A$0.0595 (bear) to A$0.1190 (bull), the price of A$0.3000 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 27/100 (below-average quality), in the Energy sector.

Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.

Lakes Oil NL reported revenue of A$350K in FY2026 versus A$36.7K in FY2022, a compound +75.7%/yr. Reported net income was −A$18.8M in FY2026.

Key figures

Market cap A$28.7M (≈ $19.8M) Micro · P/S ratio 64.4 · EPS (TTM) A$−0.2500 · Return on equity −129% · Return on assets (EBIT) −10.0% (5-year average) · Operating margin −3,850% · Revenue (TTM) A$394K · Revenue growth (YoY) −93.3%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 8 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 81% below its 52-week high and 33% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at −72%, LKO screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear A$0.0595 Fair Value A$0.0850 Bull A$0.1190
Price A$0.3000 · Downside -71.7%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
NCAV (Graham) A$0.0700 A$0.1000 A$0.1400 54
All 1 models by family
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) A$0.0700 A$0.1000 A$0.1400 54

The fair value above starts from this blend and is adjusted for dilution from new shares.

Open the full fair value analysis →

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 27/100

It rates the business: profits, how they develop, real cash, balance sheet, investing and share count.

Profitability 1
How much profit the company makes from its sales and capital
Quality Growth 9
Are margins and returns getting better?
Cashflow 25
Do the profits arrive as real cash?
Financial strength 45
Debt, balance sheet and risk of trouble
Investment 100
Does it invest with discipline instead of growing at any price?
Low Volatility 50
How calm the share price moves, does not count
Price momentum 19
Price momentum of the last 3 to 12 months, does not count
Near the 52-week high 3
Distance to the 52-week high, does not count
New shares 0
Buys back shares or issues new ones?

Open the full quality analysis →

Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 27/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
−93.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+98.9%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+13.0%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +134.6% a year
Revenue growth 21 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−5.0%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−712.8% (2021) → −1,791.7% (2026)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2026 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

LKO screens overvalued: fair value 72% below the price. Compare with ConocoPhillips explores for, →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Oil & Gas E&P · 239 stocks

Beats the industry median on 1/7 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 27 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside −71.7% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on assets −123.8% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY) −93.3% · Bottom 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Oil & Gas E&P median · lower = cheaper

P/B 2.09× · Pricier than median
P/S (12 months) 72.87× · Priciest 25%
PEG 0.97× · Cheaper than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 23
FUTURE (revenue growth)0 · sector 100
PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 30
HEALTH (low debt)100 · sector 85
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 72

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

Oil & gas

Similar stocks

10 more Oil & Gas E&P stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value Compare
Diamondback Energy, Inc FANG $178.96 $242.64 +36% vs LKO
CNOOC Limited 0883 HK$23.48 HK$26.76 +14% vs LKO
EOG Resources, Inc EOG $147.13 $166.94 +13% vs LKO
Canadian Natural Resources Limited CNQ $48.55 $53.41 +10% vs LKO
EQT Corporation EQT $49.40 $54.34 +10% vs LKO
Devon Energy Corporation DVN $42.21 $39.47 −7% vs LKO
Woodside Energy Group WDS $21.04 $19.39 −8% vs LKO
ConocoPhillips explores for, COP $136.27 $92.89 −32% vs LKO
Occidental Petroleum Corporation OXY $56.38 $33.18 −41% vs LKO
Aker BP ASA AKRBP kr 316.80 kr 127.39 −60% vs LKO

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Lakes Oil NL: fair value per Fair Value Calculator

Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Lakes Oil NL Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/LKO

Frequently asked questions

Is Lakes Oil NL (LKO) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 3, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of A$0.0850 versus a price of A$0.3000, about 72% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of LKO?
Our model-based fair value for Lakes Oil NL is A$0.0850 (as of Nov 3, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: A$0.3000.
What is the quality score of LKO?
Lakes Oil NL has a Quality Score of 27/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Lakes Oil NL (LKO)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of A$0.0850 (as of Nov 3, 2026) from 1 valuation models. Cautious scenario A$0.0595, optimistic scenario A$0.1190. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Lakes Oil NL stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at A$0.0850, about 72% lower versus a price of A$0.3000 (overvalued). Cautious scenario A$0.0595, optimistic scenario A$0.1190. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Lakes Oil NL (LKO)?
Lakes Oil NL reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about A$394K (latest available figure, as of Nov 3, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Lakes Oil NL (LKO)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Lakes Oil NL it is A$0.0850 per share (as of Nov 3, 2026), against a price of A$0.3000. It is the blended result of 1 valuation models in 1 family (Asset-Based).
Is Lakes Oil NL stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 3, 2026, LKO trades above its calculated fair value: price A$0.3000, fair value A$0.0850, a gap of about −72% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of LKO?
No. The price is what the market pays today (A$0.3000); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (A$0.0850). For Lakes Oil NL the two are A$0.2150 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Lakes Oil NL worth?
The market values Lakes Oil NL at about A$28.7M (market capitalisation, as of Nov 3, 2026). Per share that is A$0.3000; our models calculate a fair value of A$0.0850 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about LKO?
Our models span a range for Lakes Oil NL: cautious scenario A$0.0595, base A$0.0850, optimistic A$0.1190 per share (as of Nov 3, 2026, price A$0.3000). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the PEG ratio of LKO?
The PEG ratio of Lakes Oil NL is 0.97 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 3, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Lakes Oil NL (LKO)?
Balance-sheet figures for Lakes Oil NL (as of Nov 3, 2026): return on equity −129.5%. They feed the Quality Score of 27/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is LKO from its 52-week high?
Lakes Oil NL trades at A$0.3000, about 81% below its 52-week high of A$1.58 and 33% above the low of A$0.2250 (as of Nov 9, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of A$0.0850 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Lakes Oil NL?
From the same area (Energy) we also value ConocoPhillips explores for,, CNOOC Limited, Canadian Natural Resources Limited, EOG Resources, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Lakes Oil NL stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 3, 2026: price A$0.3000, calculated fair value A$0.0850 (−72%), Quality Score 27/100, from 1 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of LKO calculated?
We run Lakes Oil NL through 1 models from 1 family: Asset-Based. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of A$0.0850 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. Lakes Oil NL itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Lakes Oil NL (LKO)?
The closing price on Nov 9, 2026 was A$0.3000. Our model-based fair value is A$0.0850, about 72% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Lakes Oil NL right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (A$0.1190). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (27/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. A fairly wide model range (A$0.0595 to A$0.1190) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Key figures of Lakes Oil NL

How large is the market capitalisation of Lakes Oil NL (LKO)?
The market capitalisation of Lakes Oil NL is A$28.7M (≈ $19.8M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Lakes Oil NL (LKO)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Lakes Oil NL is 64.4 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Lakes Oil NL (LKO)?
Earnings per share at Lakes Oil NL are A$−0.2500. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the return on equity of Lakes Oil NL (LKO)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Lakes Oil NL is −129% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Lakes Oil NL (LKO)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Lakes Oil NL is −10.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Lakes Oil NL (LKO)?
The operating margin of Lakes Oil NL is −3,850% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Lakes Oil NL (LKO)?
Revenue at Lakes Oil NL is growing −93.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg +98.9%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Lakes Oil NL (LKO)?
Earnings per share at Lakes Oil NL are growing +32.8% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Lakes Oil NL (LKO) generate?
The free cash flow of Lakes Oil NL is −A$2.7M (fiscal year 2026). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does Lakes Oil NL (LKO) hold?
Lakes Oil NL holds more cash than debt, A$434K net (fiscal year 2026). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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