Lakes Oil NL (LKO) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 24, 2026: fair value of Lakes Oil NL A$0.57, price A$0.27, upside +115.1%, quality 52 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range A$0.2550 – A$2.00 · fair‑value band A$0.3800 – A$0.7200 · the A$0.2650 price screens below the A$0.5700 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
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Lakes Blue Energy NL, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the exploration of oil and gas properties. The company holds interests in petroleum and mineral exploration rights in Victoria, South Australia, and Queensland; Papua New Guinea; and the United States.
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Lakes Blue Energy NL, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the exploration of oil and gas properties. The company holds interests in petroleum and mineral exploration rights in Victoria, South Australia, and Queensland; Papua New Guinea; and the United States. The company was formerly known as Lakes Oil NL and changed its name to Lakes Blue Energy NL in March 2021. Lakes Blue Energy NL was incorporated in 1946 and is based in Sydney, Australia.
Stock analysis
Lakes Oil NL (LKO) currently trades at A$0.2650, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$0.5700, implying the stock looks roughly 53.5% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of A$1.70 per share, and 11 of the 14 models we run sit above the A$0.2650 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at A$0.1300, and 3 of the 14 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: A$0.3800 (bear) to A$0.7200 (bull), the price of A$0.2650 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 52/100 (solid quality), in the Energy sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Lakes Oil NL reported revenue of A$5.6M in FY2025 versus A$190K in FY2021, a compound +132.8%/yr. Reported net income was A$3.7M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap A$24.5M (≈ $17.2M) · P/E ratio 26.5 · P/S ratio 17.8 · EPS (TTM) A$0.0100 · Net margin 67.3% · Return on equity −1.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) −2.8% · Revenue (TTM) A$5.8M.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 32 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 83% below its 52-week high and 4% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at 115%, LKO screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear A$0.3800Fair Value A$0.5700Bull A$0.7200
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 12 months old). Earnings retained since then (A$0.0100 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.49/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+3,616.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+433.5%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+238.4%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +32.8% a year
Revenue growth 20 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.8%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−323.5% (2020) → 67.3% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: no profitable base year
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Oil & Gas E&P · 306 stocks
Beats the industry median on 4/10 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score54 · Above median
Fair Value upside+115% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on assets−16% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM)67% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)0% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth12% · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Oil & Gas E&P median · lower = cheaper
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As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of A$0.5700 versus a price of A$0.2650, about +115% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of LKO?
Our model-based fair value for Lakes Oil NL is A$0.5700 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: A$0.2650.
What is the quality score of LKO?
Lakes Oil NL has a Quality Score of 52/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Lakes Oil NL (LKO)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of A$0.5700 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 14 valuation models. Cautious scenario A$0.3800, optimistic scenario A$0.7200. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Lakes Oil NL stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at A$0.5700, about +115% upside versus a price of A$0.2650 (undervalued). Cautious scenario A$0.3800, optimistic scenario A$0.7200. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Lakes Oil NL (LKO)?
Lakes Oil NL reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about A$5.8M (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Lakes Oil NL (LKO)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Lakes Oil NL it is A$0.5700 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of A$0.2650. It is the blended result of 14 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Lakes Oil NL stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, LKO trades below its calculated fair value: price A$0.2650, fair value A$0.5700, a gap of about +115% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of LKO?
No. The price is what the market pays today (A$0.2650); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (A$0.5700). For Lakes Oil NL the two are A$0.3050 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Lakes Oil NL worth?
The market values Lakes Oil NL at about A$24.5M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is A$0.2650; our models calculate a fair value of A$0.5700 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about LKO?
Our models span a range for Lakes Oil NL: cautious scenario A$0.3800, base A$0.5700, optimistic A$0.7200 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price A$0.2650). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of LKO?
Lakes Oil NL trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 26.5 (as of Sep 23, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of A$0.5700 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 1.0, P/B 1.4, P/S 4.2.
What is the PEG ratio of LKO?
The PEG ratio of Lakes Oil NL is 0.97 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 23, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Lakes Oil NL (LKO)?
Balance-sheet figures for Lakes Oil NL (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity −1.8%. They feed the Quality Score of 52/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is LKO from its 52-week high?
Lakes Oil NL trades at A$0.2650, about 83% below its 52-week high of A$1.58 and 4% above the low of A$0.2550 (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of A$0.5700 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Lakes Oil NL?
From the same area (Energy) we also value CNOOC Limited, ConocoPhillips explores for,, Canadian Natural Resources Limited, EOG Resources, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Lakes Oil NL stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price A$0.2650, calculated fair value A$0.5700 (+115%), Quality Score 52/100, from 14 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of LKO calculated?
We run Lakes Oil NL through 14 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of A$0.5700, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Lakes Oil NL currently trades 115 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Lakes Oil NL (LKO)?
The closing price on Sep 24, 2026 was A$0.2650. Our model-based fair value is A$0.5700, about +115% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Lakes Oil NL right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case (A$0.3800). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid quality (52/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. A fairly wide model range (A$0.3800 to A$0.7200) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Lakes Oil NL
How large is the market capitalisation of Lakes Oil NL (LKO)?
The market capitalisation of Lakes Oil NL is A$24.5M (≈ $17.2M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Lakes Oil NL (LKO)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Lakes Oil NL is 17.8 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Lakes Oil NL (LKO)?
Earnings per share at Lakes Oil NL are A$0.0100 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 26.5). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Lakes Oil NL (LKO)?
The net margin of Lakes Oil NL is 67.3% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Lakes Oil NL (LKO)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Lakes Oil NL is −1.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Lakes Oil NL (LKO)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Lakes Oil NL is −2.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
How fast is revenue growing at Lakes Oil NL (LKO)?
Revenue at Lakes Oil NL is growing +12.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg +433%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Lakes Oil NL (LKO)?
Earnings per share at Lakes Oil NL are growing +32.8% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Lakes Oil NL (LKO) generate?
The free cash flow of Lakes Oil NL is −A$2.0M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does Lakes Oil NL (LKO) hold?
Lakes Oil NL holds more cash than debt, A$2.6M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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