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MC Mining Ltd (MCM) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 30, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of MC Mining Ltd stock A$0.14, price A$0.26, upside -45.1%, quality 14 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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MM
Thin data
Nov 2, 2026
Thin data
Nov 2, 2026
MC Mining Ltd
MCM · AUVery expensive, weak quality
Our calculation puts a fair price 45% below what the stock costs today.
Low debt
Fair value A$0.1400 · Strongly overvalued (−45.1%)
Quality 14/100
Weak Growth (revenue 5y −18.7 %/yr in USD)
Negative free cash flow
Narrow moat 8/100 · thin data
Thin data
⟳ Cyclical
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What runs behind every stock
26
valuation models
8 families, DCF to NCAV
37
quality factors
margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt
6
AI factors
moat, what no ratio measures
2,000+
data points
verified, per stock, median
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 2, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range A$0.0370 – A$0.7008 · fair‑value band A$0.1000 – A$0.2000 · the A$0.2550 price screens above the A$0.1400 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. As of Nov 2, 2026.
Company profile
MC Mining Limited, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the acquisition, exploration, development, and operation of steelmaking and thermal coal projects in South Africa.
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Its flagship project is the 67% owned Makhado steelmaking hard coking coal project located in the Soutpansberg coalfield in the Limpopo province. The company was formerly known as Coal of Africa Limited and changed its name to MC Mining Limited in November 2017.
MC Mining Limited was incorporated in 1979 and is based in Melbourne, Australia.
Stock analysis
MC Mining Ltd (MCM) currently trades at A$0.2550, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$0.1400, 45.1% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
How firm this estimate is: it rests on 1 models at a data quality of 95/100, which puts the data coverage at low.
Scenario range: A$0.1000 (bear) to A$0.2000 (bull), the price of A$0.2550 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 14/100 (below-average quality), in the Energy sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
MC Mining Ltd reported revenue of $7.3M in FY2026 versus $23.5M in FY2022, a compound −25.3%/yr. Reported net income was −$17.0M in FY2026.
Key figures
Market cap A$203M (≈ $142M) Micro · P/S ratio 28.9 · EPS (TTM) A$−0.0300 · Return on equity −17.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) −14.8% · Operating margin −1,074% · Revenue (TTM) $7.4M · Revenue growth (YoY) −90.5%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 32 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 29% below its 52-week high and 34% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at −28% fair-value upside, at −45%, MCM screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear A$0.1000
Fair Value A$0.1400
Bull A$0.2000
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models.
Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.
Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
NCAV (Graham)
A$0.1000
A$0.1400
A$0.2000
54
All 1 models by family
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)
A$0.1000
A$0.1400
A$0.2000
54
Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality
14/100
It rates the business: profits, how they develop, real cash, balance sheet, investing and share count.
Profitability
0
How much profit the company makes from its sales and capital
Quality Growth
20
Are margins and returns getting better?
Cashflow
0
Do the profits arrive as real cash?
Financial strength
45
Debt, balance sheet and risk of trouble
Investment
19
Does it invest with discipline instead of growing at any price?
Low Volatility
50
How calm the share price moves, does not count
Price momentum
38
Price momentum of the last 3 to 12 months, does not count
Near the 52-week high
42
Distance to the 52-week high, does not count
New shares
0
Buys back shares or issues new ones?
Revenue & earnings trend
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.
0/100
Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Revenue growth 1 year
−58.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−45.3%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−18.7%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +28.9% a year
Revenue growth 25 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.4%
’14
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−51.6% (2021) → −244.0% (2026)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2026 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
MCM screens overvalued: fair value 45% below the price. Compare with China Shenhua Energy Company →
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Thermal Coal · 81 stocks
Beats the industry median on 1/7 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation Multiplesvs Thermal Coal median · lower = cheaper
Context: sector, industry, market
- Is the Energy sector expensive or cheap?
- P/E, EV/EBITDA and margins by industry (reference tables)
- Revenue growth by industry
- PEG ratio by industry
- Stock screener with 62 metrics
- Undervalued stocks: Energy
- Valuation of the Australia market
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Coal
Oil & gas
Similar stocks
10 more Thermal Coal stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value | Compare |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coal India Limited COALINDIA | ₹389.00 | ₹464.01 | +19% | vs MCM |
| Shaanxi Coal Industry Company 601225 | ¥28.08 | ¥30.89 | +10% | vs MCM |
| PT Bayan Resources Tbk., BYAN | 9,150 IDR | 10,065 IDR | +10% | vs MCM |
| China Coal Energy Company 601898 | ¥13.94 | ¥14.62 | +5% | vs MCM |
| Inner Mongolia Dian Tou Energy Corporation 002128 | ¥28.47 | ¥20.56 | −28% | vs MCM |
| Shanxi Lu'an Environmental Energy Development Co 601699 | ¥14.57 | ¥9.23 | −37% | vs MCM |
| China Shenhua Energy Company 601088 | ¥51.99 | ¥31.96 | −39% | vs MCM |
| Yankuang Energy Group 600188 | ¥19.34 | ¥9.32 | −52% | vs MCM |
| PT Dian Swastatika Sentosa Tbk, DSSA | 670.00 IDR | 246.17 IDR | −63% | vs MCM |
| Adani Enterprises Limited ADANIENT | ₹2,579 | ₹891.11 | −65% | vs MCM |
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Frequently asked questions
Is MC Mining Ltd (MCM) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 2, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of A$0.1400 versus a price of A$0.2550, about −45% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of MCM?
Our model-based fair value for MC Mining Ltd is A$0.1400 (as of Nov 2, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: A$0.2550.
What is the quality score of MCM?
MC Mining Ltd has a Quality Score of 14/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for MC Mining Ltd (MCM)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of A$0.1400 (as of Nov 2, 2026) from 1 valuation models. Cautious scenario A$0.1000, optimistic scenario A$0.2000. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the MC Mining Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at A$0.1400, about −45% upside versus a price of A$0.2550 (overvalued). Cautious scenario A$0.1000, optimistic scenario A$0.2000. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of MC Mining Ltd (MCM)?
MC Mining Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $7.4M (latest available figure, as of Nov 2, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of MC Mining Ltd (MCM)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For MC Mining Ltd it is A$0.1400 per share (as of Nov 2, 2026), against a price of A$0.2550. It is the blended result of 1 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is MC Mining Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 2, 2026, MCM trades above its calculated fair value: price A$0.2550, fair value A$0.1400, a gap of about −45% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of MCM?
No. The price is what the market pays today (A$0.2550); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (A$0.1400). For MC Mining Ltd the two are A$0.1150 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is MC Mining Ltd worth?
The market values MC Mining Ltd at about A$203M (market capitalisation, as of Nov 2, 2026). Per share that is A$0.2550; our models calculate a fair value of A$0.1400 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about MCM?
Our models span a range for MC Mining Ltd: cautious scenario A$0.1000, base A$0.1400, optimistic A$0.2000 per share (as of Nov 2, 2026, price A$0.2550). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the PEG ratio of MCM?
The PEG ratio of MC Mining Ltd is 0.04 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 2, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of MC Mining Ltd (MCM)?
Balance-sheet figures for MC Mining Ltd (as of Nov 2, 2026): return on equity −17.6%. They feed the Quality Score of 14/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is MCM from its 52-week high?
MC Mining Ltd trades at A$0.2550, about 29% below its 52-week high of A$0.3600 and 34% above the low of A$0.1900 (as of Oct 30, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of A$0.1400 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to MC Mining Ltd?
From the same area (Energy) we also value China Shenhua Energy Company, Shaanxi Coal Industry Company, Adani Enterprises Limited, China Coal Energy Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is MC Mining Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 2, 2026: price A$0.2550, calculated fair value A$0.1400 (−45%), Quality Score 14/100, from 1 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of MCM calculated?
We run MC Mining Ltd through 1 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of A$0.1400, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.9 % above its aggregate fair value. MC Mining Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of MC Mining Ltd (MCM)?
The closing price on Oct 30, 2026 was A$0.2550. Our model-based fair value is A$0.1400, about −45% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with MC Mining Ltd right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (A$0.2000). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (14/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. A fairly wide model range (A$0.1000 to A$0.2000) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of MC Mining Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of MC Mining Ltd (MCM)?
The market capitalisation of MC Mining Ltd is A$203M (≈ $142M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of MC Mining Ltd (MCM)?
The price-to-sales ratio of MC Mining Ltd is 28.9 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of MC Mining Ltd (MCM)?
Earnings per share at MC Mining Ltd are A$−0.0300. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the return on equity of MC Mining Ltd (MCM)?
The return on equity (ROE) of MC Mining Ltd is −17.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of MC Mining Ltd (MCM)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of MC Mining Ltd is −14.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of MC Mining Ltd (MCM)?
The operating margin of MC Mining Ltd is −1,074% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at MC Mining Ltd (MCM)?
Revenue at MC Mining Ltd is growing −90.5% versus a year earlier (3y avg −45.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much free cash flow does MC Mining Ltd (MCM) generate?
The free cash flow of MC Mining Ltd is −$52.2M (fiscal year 2026). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does MC Mining Ltd (MCM) carry?
The net debt of MC Mining Ltd is $37.5M (fiscal year 2026). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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