Mondelez International Inc (MDLZ) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 4, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Mondelez International Inc stock $46.95, price $67.38, that is 30.3% below the price, quality 60 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 22 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Mondelez International Inc
MDLZ · USOur calculation puts a fair price 30% below what the stock costs today.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $49.01 – $70.84 · fair‑value band $31.58 – $71.61 · the $67.38 price screens above the $46.95 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 6, 2026.
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Company profile
Mondelez International, Inc., through its subsidiaries, manufactures, markets, and sells snack food and beverage products in Latin America, North America, Asia, the Middle East, Africa, and Europe.
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The company provides biscuits and baked snacks, including cookies, crackers, salted snacks, snack bars, and cakes and pastries; chocolates; and gums and candies, as well as various cheese, grocery, and powdered beverage products.
Its brand portfolio includes Oreo, Ritz, LU, CLIF Bar, Tate's Bake Shop biscuits and baked snacks, Cadbury Dairy Milk, Milka, and Toblerone chocolate.
It serves supermarket chains, wholesalers, supercenters, club stores, mass merchandisers, distributors, convenience stores, gasoline stations, drug stores, value stores, and other retail food outlets through direct store delivery, company-owned and satellite warehouses, distribution centers, third-party distributors, and other facilities, as well as through independent sales offices and agents.
The company also sells products directly to businesses and consumers through e-retail platforms, retailer digital platforms, as well as through its direct-to-consumer websites and social media platforms.
Mondelez International, Inc. was formerly known as Kraft Foods Inc. and changed its name to Mondelez International, Inc. in October 2012. The company was incorporated in 2000 and is headquartered in Chicago, Illinois.
Stock analysis
Mondelez International Inc (MDLZ) currently trades at $67.38, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $46.95, 30% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $32.92 per share, and 0 of the 22 models we run sit above the $67.38 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at $15.83, and 22 of the 22 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $31.58 (bear) to $71.61 (bull), the price of $67.38 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 60/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Mondelez International Inc reported revenue of $38.5B in FY2025 versus $28.7B in FY2021, a compound +7.6%/yr. Reported net income was $2.5B in FY2025, compounding −13.1%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $87.1B Large · P/E ratio 21.3 · P/S ratio 2.18 · EPS (TTM) $3.17 · Dividend yield 3.0% · Net margin 10.2% · Return on equity 15.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) 6.8%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 64 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades at its 52-week high and 34% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at −6% fair-value upside, at −30%, MDLZ screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
All 22 models by family
The fair value above starts from this blend and is adjusted for a year distorted by one-off effects.
Quality Score breakdown
It rates the business: profits, how they develop, real cash, balance sheet, investing and share count.
Insider trades
In the last 6 months, one officer or director sold shares worth $17.1M and none bought.
- SaleDirk Van de PutChief Executive Officer, Director2× since Aug 19, 2026: 262,865 shares, avg. $65.04$17.1MNov 2, 202610b5-1 plan
- SaleBrian StevensSVP, CTR & Chief Accoun Off64 shares at $61.46$3,934May 1, 2026
- SaleGustavo Carlos ValleEVP and President, NA3,000 shares at $62.00$186,000Feb 13, 202610b5-1 plan
Plus 13 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Source: SEC Form 4, as of Nov 5, 2026. All filings at the SEC ↗
Revenue & earnings trend
Growth Forecast
MDLZ screens overvalued: fair value 30% below the price. Compare with The Hershey Company →
Recent news
- MDLZ Q3 deep dive: disciplined pricing and emerging market expansion drive optimism
- Mondelez International's Rally Leaves Risk/Reward Balanced, UBS Says
- Mondelez’s Q3 earnings call: our top 5 analyst questions
- International Markets and Mondelez (MDLZ): A Deep Dive for Investors
Compare Mondelez International Inc with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Confectioners · 80 stocks
Valuation Multiplesvs Confectioners median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Context: sector, industry, market
- Is the Consumer Staples sector expensive or cheap?
- P/E, EV/EBITDA and margins by industry (reference tables)
- Debt-to-equity by industry
- Price/FCF by industry
- PEG screener for stocks with fair value
- Undervalued stocks: US Stocks
- Valuation of the USA market
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Confectioners stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value | Compare |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LOTTE Corporation 004990 | 22,950 KRW | 68,850 KRW | +200% | vs MDLZ |
| ORION Corp 271560 | 121,000 KRW | 203,315 KRW | +68% | vs MDLZ |
| ORION Holdings 001800 | 24,950 KRW | 37,418 KRW | +50% | vs MDLZ |
| Chocoladefabriken Lindt & Sprüngli AG LISP | CHF 8,840 | CHF 11,708 | +32% | vs MDLZ |
| The Hershey Company HSY | $174.50 | $163.44 | −6% | vs MDLZ |
| Barry Callebaut AG BARN | CHF 1,308 | CHF 1,179 | −10% | vs MDLZ |
| Cofco Sugar Holding 600737 | ¥12.16 | ¥10.76 | −12% | vs MDLZ |
| Tootsie Roll Industries, Inc TR | $39.12 | $21.64 | −45% | vs MDLZ |
| Balrampur Chini Mills Limited BALRAMCHIN | ₹678.50 | ₹289.69 | −57% | vs MDLZ |
| Guangxi Yuegui Guangye Holdings 000833 | ¥17.35 | ¥6.91 | −60% | vs MDLZ |
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Key figures of Mondelez International Inc
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