Mehadrin (MEDN) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 9, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Mehadrin stock ILS 228, price ILS 269, that is 15.4% below the price, quality 55 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 20 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 105.10 ILS – 342.30 ILS · fair‑value band 190.34 ILS – 283.14 ILS · the 269.20 ILS price screens above the 227.70 ILS fair value. As of Nov 6, 2026.
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Mehadrin Ltd. grows and markets citrus, fruits, and vegetables primarily under the JAFFA brand name in Israel and internationally. The company offers citrus; avocadoes; dates; and other products, such as potatoes, sweet potatoes, carrots, lychee, and sharon fruits.
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It also provides cold storage services for fruits, vegetables, dairy products, and frozen products, such as juice concentrators, frozen vegetables, meat, and fish; rents areas and buildings; supplies drinking water; and offers sources of drinking water pumping services.
Mehadrin Ltd. was incorporated in 1951 and is based in Be'erot Yitzhak, Israel.
Stock analysis
Mehadrin (MEDN) currently trades at 269.20 ILS, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 227.70 ILS, 15% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of 601.49 ILS per share, and 7 of the 19 models we run sit above the 269.20 ILS price.
Bear case: the Growth DCF group reads lowest at 40.63 ILS, and 12 of the 19 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: 190.34 ILS (bear) to 283.14 ILS (bull), the price of 269.20 ILS sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 55/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is weak: less than 2 % a year.
Mehadrin reported revenue of 1.1B ILS in FY2025 versus 1.0B ILS in FY2021, a compound +1.6%/yr. Reported net income was 130M ILS in FY2025, compounding −1.8%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 927M ILS Micro · P/E ratio 7.2 · P/S ratio 0.66 · EPS (TTM) 37.32 ILS · Net margin 9.3% · Return on equity 19.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) −1.8% (5-year average) · Operating margin −9.9%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 46 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 21% below its 52-week high and 3% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at −15%, MEDN screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear190.34 ILSFair Value 227.70 ILSBull283.14 ILS
Price 269.20 ILS · Downside -15.4%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then (32.00 ILS per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.31/100
Revenue growth is weak: less than 2 % a year.
Revenue growth 1 year
+15.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.8%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−1.1%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −0.9% a year
Revenue growth 25 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.1%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
≈ +53.5%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year≈ +53.5%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.base effect: 53.5% / 21.3%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.2% → 2%
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 1.3%/yr over ~10Y (margins eroding too) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
⚠ Base effect: the rate starts in the earnings trough around 2020 (starting value 4.44 per share, median 9.92 in 2015 to 2018). It measures the recovery from the trough, not lasting growth.
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+41.7%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (Israel: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 1.7% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +38.8% a year for the price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Farm Products · 291 stocks
Beats the industry median on 7/12 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score55 · Above median
Fair Value upside−13.3% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)19.1% · Top 25%
Return on assets7.2% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months)9.3% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months)−9.9% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)19.2% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.60× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Farm Products median · lower = cheaper
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Mehadrin Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/MEDN
Frequently asked questions
Is Mehadrin (MEDN) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 6, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 227.70 ILS versus a price of 269.20 ILS, about 15% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of MEDN?
Our model-based fair value for Mehadrin is 227.70 ILS (as of Nov 6, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 269.20 ILS.
What is the quality score of MEDN?
Mehadrin has a Quality Score of 55/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Mehadrin (MEDN)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 227.70 ILS (as of Nov 6, 2026) from 20 valuation models. Cautious scenario 190.34 ILS, optimistic scenario 283.14 ILS. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Mehadrin stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 227.70 ILS, about 15% lower versus a price of 269.20 ILS (overvalued). Cautious scenario 190.34 ILS, optimistic scenario 283.14 ILS. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Mehadrin (MEDN)?
Mehadrin reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 1.4B ILS (latest available figure, as of Nov 6, 2026).
What growth is priced into Mehadrin (MEDN)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Mehadrin would have to grow free cash flow by +41.7 % per year for five years (discount rate 13.1 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -1.1 % per year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of MEDN use?
Our models discount Mehadrin at 13.1 %: a base by market capitalisation (micro), damped by beta 0.36, country premium for Israel. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Mehadrin that is +41.7 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (13.1 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Mehadrin (MEDN) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Mehadrin grew -1.1 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of +41.7 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Mehadrin (MEDN) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +3.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Mehadrin (+41.7 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Mehadrin (MEDN)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 1.93 %: that much free cash flow Mehadrin produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (13.1 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Mehadrin (MEDN)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Mehadrin it is 227.70 ILS per share (as of Nov 6, 2026), against a price of 269.20 ILS. It is the blended result of 20 valuation models in 7 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is Mehadrin stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 6, 2026, MEDN trades above its calculated fair value: price 269.20 ILS, fair value 227.70 ILS, a gap of about −15% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of MEDN?
No. The price is what the market pays today (269.20 ILS); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (227.70 ILS). For Mehadrin the two are 41.50 ILS per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Mehadrin worth?
The market values Mehadrin at about 927M ILS (market capitalisation, as of Nov 6, 2026). Per share that is 269.20 ILS; our models calculate a fair value of 227.70 ILS per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about MEDN?
Our models span a range for Mehadrin: cautious scenario 190.34 ILS, base 227.70 ILS, optimistic 283.14 ILS per share (as of Nov 6, 2026, price 269.20 ILS). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of MEDN?
Mehadrin trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 7.2 (as of Nov 6, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 227.70 ILS is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 7 fiscal years (2016 to 2025), reported earnings: 16.3. Other multiples: P/B 1.4, P/S 0.7.
How solid is the balance sheet of Mehadrin (MEDN)?
Balance-sheet figures for Mehadrin (as of Nov 6, 2026): return on equity 19.1%, debt of 0.60 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 55/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is MEDN from its 52-week high?
Mehadrin trades at 269.20 ILS, about 21% below its 52-week high of 339.20 ILS and 3% above the low of 261.10 ILS (as of Nov 9, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 227.70 ILS is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Mehadrin?
From the same area (Consumer Defensive) we also value Muyuan Foods Group, Archer-Daniels-Midland Company, Tyson Foods, Inc, Bunge Global SA, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Mehadrin stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 6, 2026: price 269.20 ILS, calculated fair value 227.70 ILS (−15%), Quality Score 55/100, from 20 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of MEDN calculated?
We run Mehadrin through 20 models from 7 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of 227.70 ILS builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. Mehadrin itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Mehadrin (MEDN)?
The closing price on Nov 9, 2026 was 269.20 ILS. Our model-based fair value is 227.70 ILS, about 15% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Mehadrin right now?
Solid but not exceptional quality (55/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. The price sits in the upper half of our model range, so the margin of safety is thin. Read the verdict with care: some models are missing inputs, so the estimate scatters more than usual.
Key figures of Mehadrin
How large is the market capitalisation of Mehadrin (MEDN)?
The market capitalisation of Mehadrin is 927M ILS. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Mehadrin (MEDN)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Mehadrin is 0.66 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Mehadrin (MEDN)?
Earnings per share at Mehadrin are 37.32 ILS (price ÷ EPS = P/E 7.2). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Mehadrin (MEDN)?
The net margin of Mehadrin is 9.3% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Mehadrin (MEDN)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Mehadrin is 19.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Mehadrin (MEDN)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Mehadrin is −1.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Mehadrin (MEDN)?
The operating margin of Mehadrin is −9.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Mehadrin (MEDN)?
Revenue at Mehadrin is growing +19.2% versus a year earlier (3y avg +2.8%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Mehadrin (MEDN)?
Earnings per share at Mehadrin are growing −11.8% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Mehadrin (MEDN) carry?
The net debt of Mehadrin is 301M ILS (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 16.8 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Some data
Nov 6, 2026