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MOL fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Nov 2, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of MOL stock HUF 6,409, price HUF 4,950, upside +29.5%, quality 59 out of 100. Rating: undervalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

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Energy HU · ISIN HU0000153937

M MOL logo Broad data Oct 31, 2026

MOL

MOL · BUD
Undervalued

The stock costs 23% less than our calculation considers fair.

Fair value 6,409 HUF · Undervalued (23%)
Low debt
Generates free cash flow
Broad data
Revenue last quarter +32% vs. a year ago.
Quality 59/100
Thin margins · 4.2% net margin (TTM)
Weak Growth (revenue 3y −4.1 %/yr in HUF)
Narrow moat 39/100
⟳ Cyclical

What runs behind every stock

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

5,250 HUF 1,769 HUF Fair Value 6,409 HUF Jul 2021 Nov 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Oct 31, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range 1,769 HUF – 5,250 HUF · fair‑value band 4,806 HUF – 8,011 HUF · the 4,950 HUF price screens below the 6,409 HUF fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Oct 31, 2026.

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Company profile

MOL Magyar Olaj- és Gázipari Nyilvánosan Muködo Részvénytársaság, together with its subsidiaries, operates as an integrated oil and gas company in Hungary and internationally.

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The company offers MOL EVO fuel products; operates convenience store under the Fresh Corner brand; and provides e-charging solutions.

It also provides lubricants and autochemicals; gasoline, diesel, heating oil, and bunker diesel; JET A-1 aviation fuel; liquefied petroleum gas, including butanes, propane-butane mix, autogas, propane; petrochemicals; black products, such as bitumen, HFO, petrolcoke, and liquid sulphur, as well as other crude processing/petchem residues, including fcc residue, c9+, and pyrooil; and base oil, waxes, and finished lubricants.

In addition, the company is involved in the provision of retail services, which operates service stations under the MOL, Slovnaft, INA, Tifon, and Energopetrol brands; mobility solutions comprising e-mobility, car sharing, bike sharing, fleet management services; oilfield chemicals and technologies business; and oilfield services, such as drilling, workover, pressure pumping, cementing and stimulation, coiled tubing and nitrogen, tubular handling, well test, slickline, wireline mud logging, and seismic data processing service lines.

Further, it engages in the provision of digital factory services, including data science, master data management, loyalty, customer relationship management, campaign management, API integration, omnichannel and payment; and natural gas transmission business.

Additionally, the company produces, supplies, and treats water; fire and ambulance services; investment management; engineering activity and consultancy; hydrocarbon exploration; trading of oil products; financial services; exploration financing; private security; accounting; bookkeeping and auditing; tax consultancy; and computer facilities management activities.

The company was incorporated in 1991 and is headquartered in Budapest, Hungary.

Stock analysis

MOL (MOL) currently trades at 4,950 HUF, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 6,409 HUF, implying the stock looks roughly 22.8% undervalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of 7,237 HUF per share, and 15 of the 25 models we run sit above the 4,950 HUF price.

Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at 2,529 HUF, and 10 of the 25 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.

Scenario range: 4,806 HUF (bear) to 8,011 HUF (bull), the price of 4,950 HUF sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 59/100 (solid quality), in the Energy sector.

Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.

MOL reported revenue of 8.7T HUF in FY2025 versus 6.0T HUF in FY2021, a compound +9.9%/yr. Reported net income was 298B HUF in FY2025, compounding −13.2%/yr from FY2021.

Key figures

Market cap 3.9T HUF (≈ $12.0B) Large · P/E ratio 9.5 · P/S ratio 0.42 · EPS (TTM) 521.67 HUF · Dividend yield 5.6% · Net margin 4.2% · Return on equity 9.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) 9.7%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 38 out of 100 (medium confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 6% below its 52-week high and 82% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at −54% fair-value upside, at 29%, MOL screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear 4,806 HUF Fair Value 6,409 HUF Bull 8,011 HUF
Price 4,950 HUF · Upside +29.5%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then (437.35 HUF per share) are deliberately not added. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
FCF DCF 5,405 HUF 7,610 HUF 10,528 HUF 81
Growth DCF 5,521 HUF 7,533 HUF 10,074 HUF 79
Owner Earnings 5,609 HUF 7,895 HUF 10,921 HUF 77
All 25 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF 5,405 HUF 7,610 HUF 10,528 HUF 81
Owner Earnings 5,609 HUF 7,895 HUF 10,921 HUF 77
5Y Revenue Exit 4,799 HUF 7,168 HUF 10,072 HUF 73
5Y EBITDA Exit 5,260 HUF 7,992 HUF 11,034 HUF 75
5Y P/E Exit 4,147 HUF 6,003 HUF 7,838 HUF 71
10Y Revenue Exit 4,861 HUF 6,961 HUF 9,542 HUF 67
10Y EBITDA Exit 5,264 HUF 7,494 HUF 10,214 HUF 69
10Y P/E Exit 4,599 HUF 6,208 HUF 7,981 HUF 65
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd 2,563 HUF 6,222 HUF 8,042 HUF 65
PEG = 1.0 1,106 HUF 1,580 HUF 2,053 HUF 57
EPV 2,185 HUF 2,529 HUF 2,823 HUF 74
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM 2,284 HUF 3,862 HUF 5,646 HUF 67
DDM Multi-Stage 2,284 HUF 3,312 HUF 4,350 HUF 67
Multiples
P/E Multiple 3,958 HUF 5,278 HUF 6,597 HUF 63
P/S Multiple 4,806 HUF 6,409 HUF 8,011 HUF 58
P/B Multiple 2,362 HUF 3,150 HUF 3,937 HUF 55
EV/EBIT 3,417 HUF 4,744 HUF 6,072 HUF 66
EV/EBITDA 5,474 HUF 7,487 HUF 9,500 HUF 67
EV/Revenue 4,266 HUF 6,337 HUF 8,408 HUF 53
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) 2,390 HUF 3,203 HUF 4,781 HUF 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF 5,521 HUF 7,533 HUF 10,074 HUF 79
Rev-Margin DCF 4,799 HUF 7,237 HUF 9,884 HUF 73
Economic Profit
Residual Income 4,186 HUF 4,398 HUF 4,791 HUF 76
ROIC Compounder 2,185 HUF 2,529 HUF 2,823 HUF 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E 3,134 HUF 4,478 HUF 5,821 HUF 67

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 59/100

It rates the business: profits, how they develop, real cash, balance sheet, investing and share count.

Profitability 41
How much profit the company makes from its sales and capital
Quality Growth 40
Are margins and returns getting better?
Cashflow 48
Do the profits arrive as real cash?
Financial strength 62
Debt, balance sheet and risk of trouble
Investment 83
Does it invest with discipline instead of growing at any price?
Low Volatility 85
How calm the share price moves, does not count
Price momentum 78
Price momentum of the last 3 to 12 months, does not count
Near the 52-week high 94
Distance to the 52-week high, does not count
New shares 90
Buys back shares or issues new ones?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
−5.3%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−4.1%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+16.7%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 7 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.7%
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in HUF ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in HUF: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+0.8%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−4.8%
Dividend (yield on the price)5.6%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.1% → 5%

Growth Forecast

Price in line with expectations
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and about what analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−1.6%
The company could shrink this much every year for the next five years and today's price would still be justified.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
−1.3%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (Hungary: IMF forecast 3.3% a year to 2030, 5.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −4.7% a year for the price and −4.4% for the forecasts.
Forecast 2026 (sales)+5.4%
Forecast 2027 (sales)−4.0%
Projected 2028 (sales)−3.2%
Projected 2029 (sales)−2.5%
Projected 2030 (sales)−1.7%

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing · 117 stocks

Beats the industry median on 12/14 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 59 · Above median
Fair Value upside +29.9% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months) 9.9% · Below median
Return on assets 3.6% · Above median
Net margin (12 months) 4.2% · Above median
Operating margin (12 months) 10.6% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY) 32.3% · Above median
Dividend yield (12 months) 5.6% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.11× · Below median

Valuation Multiplesvs Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing median · lower = cheaper

P/E (12 months) 9.5× · Cheaper than median
P/B 0.94× · Cheaper than median
P/S (12 months) 0.42× · Pricier than median
Price / free cash flow 9.3× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA 3.4× · Cheapest 25%

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

Oil & gas

Similar stocks

10 more Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value Compare
Indian Oil Corporation IOC ₹134.59 ₹229.61 +71% vs MOL
SK Innovation Co 096770 131,400 KRW 134,359 KRW +2% vs MOL
Sunoco LP, SUN $70.84 $53.89 −24% vs MOL
Reliance Industries Limited RELIANCE ₹1,300 ₹865.31 −33% vs MOL
HF Sinclair Corporation DINO $115.00 $52.92 −54% vs MOL
Neste Oyj NESTE €28.41 €11.70 −59% vs MOL
Formosa Petrochemical Corporation 6505 103.00 TWD 35.53 TWD −66% vs MOL
Valero Energy Corporation VLO $399.66 $131.30 −67% vs MOL
Phillips 66 PSX $282.83 $86.38 −69% vs MOL
Marathon Petroleum Corporation MPC $444.73 $105.46 −76% vs MOL

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "MOL Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/MOL.BUD

Frequently asked questions

Is MOL overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 31, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 6,409 HUF versus a price of 4,950 HUF, about +29% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of MOL?
Our model-based fair value for MOL is 6,409 HUF (as of Oct 31, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 4,950 HUF.
What is the quality score of MOL?
MOL has a Quality Score of 59/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for MOL?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 6,409 HUF (as of Oct 31, 2026) from 25 valuation models. Cautious scenario 4,806 HUF, optimistic scenario 8,011 HUF. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the MOL stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 6,409 HUF, about +29% upside versus a price of 4,950 HUF (undervalued). Cautious scenario 4,806 HUF, optimistic scenario 8,011 HUF. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of MOL?
MOL reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 9.3T HUF (latest available figure, as of Oct 31, 2026).
Does MOL pay a dividend?
MOL currently shows a dividend yield of 5.61% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 31, 2026).
What growth is priced into MOL?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, MOL would have to grow free cash flow by -1.6 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.0 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +16.7 % per year. As of Oct 31, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of MOL use?
Our models discount MOL at 10.0 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.09, country premium for Hungary. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For MOL that is -1.6 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.0 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has MOL delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at MOL grew +16.7 % a year. The price currently implies -1.6 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of MOL growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +14.0 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into MOL (-1.6 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of MOL?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 10.67 %: that much free cash flow MOL produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.0 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of MOL?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For MOL it is 6,409 HUF per share (as of Oct 31, 2026), against a price of 4,950 HUF. It is the blended result of 25 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is MOL stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 31, 2026, MOL trades below its calculated fair value: price 4,950 HUF, fair value 6,409 HUF, a gap of about +29% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of MOL?
No. The price is what the market pays today (4,950 HUF); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (6,409 HUF). For MOL the two are 1,459 HUF per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is MOL worth?
The market values MOL at about 3.9T HUF (market capitalisation, as of Oct 31, 2026). Per share that is 4,950 HUF; our models calculate a fair value of 6,409 HUF per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about MOL?
Our models span a range for MOL: cautious scenario 4,806 HUF, base 6,409 HUF, optimistic 8,011 HUF per share (as of Oct 31, 2026, price 4,950 HUF). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of MOL?
MOL trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 9.5 (as of Oct 31, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 6,409 HUF is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 7 fiscal years (2018 to 2025), reported earnings: 6.7. Other multiples: P/B 0.9, P/S 0.4, EV/EBITDA 3.4.
How solid is the balance sheet of MOL?
Balance-sheet figures for MOL (as of Oct 31, 2026): return on equity 9.9%, debt of 0.11 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 59/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is MOL from its 52-week high?
MOL trades at 4,950 HUF, about 6% below its 52-week high of 5,250 HUF and 82% above the low of 2,724 HUF (as of Nov 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 6,409 HUF is for.
Which stocks are comparable to MOL?
From the same area (Energy) we also value Reliance Industries Limited, Marathon Petroleum Corporation, Valero Energy Corporation, Phillips 66, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is MOL stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 31, 2026: price 4,950 HUF, calculated fair value 6,409 HUF (+29%), Quality Score 59/100, from 25 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of MOL calculated?
We run MOL through 25 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 6,409 HUF, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.9 % above its aggregate fair value. MOL currently trades 23 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of MOL?
The closing price on Nov 2, 2026 was 4,950 HUF. Our model-based fair value is 6,409 HUF, about +29% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with MOL right now?
Solid quality (59/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. The price sits in the lower half of our model range, the side with the larger margin of safety. The data supports the verdict: every model runs on fully documented inputs.

Key figures of MOL

How large is the market capitalisation of MOL?
The market capitalisation of MOL is 3.9T HUF (≈ $12.0B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of MOL?
The price-to-sales ratio of MOL is 0.42 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of MOL?
Earnings per share at MOL are 521.67 HUF (price ÷ EPS = P/E 9.5). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of MOL?
The dividend yield of MOL is 5.6% (payout 53.2%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of MOL?
The net margin of MOL is 4.2% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of MOL?
The return on equity (ROE) of MOL is 9.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of MOL?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of MOL is 9.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of MOL?
The operating margin of MOL is 10.6% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at MOL?
Revenue at MOL is growing +32.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg −4.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at MOL?
Earnings per share at MOL are growing +443% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does MOL carry?
The net debt of MOL is 447B HUF (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 1.1 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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