Merlin Properties SOCIMI SA (MRL) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 5, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Merlin Properties SOCIMI SA stock €7.56, price €11.28, that is 33.0% below the price, quality 53 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 15 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 5, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range €6.56 – €15.75 · fair‑value band €3.28 – €11.41 · the €11.28 price screens above the €7.56 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 5, 2026.
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MERLIN Properties SOCIMI, S.A. is the largest real estate and infrastructure company trading on the Spanish Stock Exchange. Specialized in the development, acquisition and management of commercial property in the lberian region.
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MERLIN Properties mainly invests in offices, shopping centers, logistics facilities and data centers, within the Core and Core Plus segments, forming part of the benchmark IBEX-35, Euro STOXX 600, FTSE EPRA/NAREIT Global Real Estate, GPR Global Index, GPR-250 Index, MSCI Small Caps indices and DJSI. MERLIN Properties SOCIMI, S.A. was incorporated in 2014 in Spain.
Stock analysis
Merlin Properties SOCIMI SA (MRL) currently trades at €11.28, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €7.56, 33% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Economic Profit group reads highest at a median of €11.56 per share, and 5 of the 14 models we run sit above the €11.28 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at €2.58, and 9 of the 14 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: €3.28 (bear) to €11.41 (bull), the price of €11.28 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 53/100 (solid quality), in the Real Estate sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Merlin Properties SOCIMI SA reported revenue of €539M in FY2025 versus €383M in FY2021, a compound +8.9%/yr. Reported net income was €786M in FY2025, compounding +11.3%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap €7.0B Mid · P/E ratio 7.7 · P/S ratio 11.6 · EPS (TTM) €1.47 · Dividend yield 2.0% · Net margin 142% · Return on equity 9.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) 2.6%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 52 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 28% below its 52-week high and at its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at 4% fair-value upside, at −33%, MRL screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear€3.28Fair Value €7.56Bull€11.41
Price €11.28 · Downside -33.0%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then (€1.06 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
FCF DCF€3.86€8.89€16.2276
Residual Income€10.78€11.56€13.4276
Growth DCF€3.81€8.39€14.7675
All 15 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF€3.86€8.89€16.2276
5Y Revenue Exit€1.03€4.04€7.8967
5Y EBITDA Exit€8.85€19.54€32.6372
10Y Revenue Exit€1.93€4.93€9.0563
10Y EBITDA Exit€6.74€15.14€27.3665
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM€1.56€2.84€3.9368
DDM Multi-Stage€1.56€2.58€3.0367
Multiples
P/S Multiple€4.24€5.66€7.0758
P/B Multiple€7.30€9.73€12.1655
EV/EBIT€17.70€25.67€33.6465
EV/EBITDA€12.36€18.56€24.7666
EV/Revenuen/an/a€1.7050
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)€6.52€8.73€13.0354
Growth DCF
Growth DCF€3.81€8.39€14.7675
Economic Profit
Residual Income€10.78€11.56€13.4276
The fair value above starts from this blend and is adjusted for dilution from new shares.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.62/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+7.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.1%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.9%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +9.7% a year
Revenue growth 12 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+15.7%
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’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip.
+43.0%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+41.0%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.4.9% vs 10.6%, slowing
Profit margin 2019 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.74% → 167%
2025 sits 150% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+18.0%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+12.2%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (euro area: IMF forecast 2.2% a year to 2030, 2.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +15.5% a year for the price and +9.8% for the forecasts.
AI conclusion: Data center expansion provides the main strength by fueling revenue growth, while the main weak point lies in thin evidence on business quality and potential margin distortions from accounting items.
Main risk: The draft Spanish decree requiring data centers to meet 80 percent of power needs with new renewables hourly poses the biggest risk by potentially raising costs or delaying projects in the expanding segment.
Merlin Properties is scaling its data centers rapidly, with 160 MW already leased or pre-leased and this segment driving most of the recent revenue growth. A draft Spanish decree now requires data centers to cover at least 80 percent of their power needs with new renewables on an hourly basis, which could raise costs or delay projects. Will the data center expansion overcome these regulatory hurdles and become the dominant profit engine, or will the existing office and shopping center portfolio prove more resilient over time?
Compare Merlin Properties SOCIMI SA with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.REIT - Office · 63 stocks
Beats the industry median on 8/15 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score53 · Above median
Fair Value upside−33.0% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)9.9% · Top 25%
Return on assets5.5% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months)141.7% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months)69.9% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)14.6% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (12 months)2.0% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.52× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs REIT - Office median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)7.7× · Cheapest 25%
P/B0.87× · Pricier than median
P/S (12 months)11.63× · Priciest 25%
Price / free cash flow17.3× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA23.0× · Priciest 25%
PEG2.48× · Pricier than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 39
FUTURE (revenue growth)73· sector 6
PAST (return on equity)40· sector 9
HEALTH (low debt)74· sector 69
DIVIDEND (yield)39· sector 100
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Merlin Properties SOCIMI SA Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/MRL
Frequently asked questions
Is Merlin Properties SOCIMI SA (MRL) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 5, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €7.56 versus a price of €11.28, about 33% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of MRL?
Our model-based fair value for Merlin Properties SOCIMI SA is €7.56 (as of Nov 5, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: €11.28.
What is the quality score of MRL?
Merlin Properties SOCIMI SA has a Quality Score of 53/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Merlin Properties SOCIMI SA (MRL)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of €7.56 (as of Nov 5, 2026) from 15 valuation models. Cautious scenario €3.28, optimistic scenario €11.41. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Merlin Properties SOCIMI SA stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at €7.56, about 33% lower versus a price of €11.28 (overvalued). Cautious scenario €3.28, optimistic scenario €11.41. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Merlin Properties SOCIMI SA (MRL)?
Merlin Properties SOCIMI SA reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €601M (latest available figure, as of Nov 5, 2026).
Does Merlin Properties SOCIMI SA pay a dividend?
Merlin Properties SOCIMI SA currently shows a dividend yield of 1.95% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 5, 2026).
What growth is priced into Merlin Properties SOCIMI SA (MRL)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Merlin Properties SOCIMI SA would have to grow free cash flow by +18.0 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.9 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +3.9 % per year. As of Nov 5, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of MRL use?
Our models discount Merlin Properties SOCIMI SA at 10.9 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.93, country premium for Spain. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Merlin Properties SOCIMI SA that is +18.0 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.9 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Merlin Properties SOCIMI SA (MRL) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Merlin Properties SOCIMI SA grew +3.9 % a year. The price currently implies +18.0 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Merlin Properties SOCIMI SA (MRL) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +2.7 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Merlin Properties SOCIMI SA (+18.0 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Merlin Properties SOCIMI SA (MRL)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 5.79 %: that much free cash flow Merlin Properties SOCIMI SA produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.9 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Merlin Properties SOCIMI SA (MRL)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Merlin Properties SOCIMI SA it is €7.56 per share (as of Nov 5, 2026), against a price of €11.28. It is the blended result of 15 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Merlin Properties SOCIMI SA stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 5, 2026, MRL trades above its calculated fair value: price €11.28, fair value €7.56, a gap of about −33% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of MRL?
No. The price is what the market pays today (€11.28); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (€7.56). For Merlin Properties SOCIMI SA the two are €3.72 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Merlin Properties SOCIMI SA worth?
The market values Merlin Properties SOCIMI SA at about €7.0B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 5, 2026). Per share that is €11.28; our models calculate a fair value of €7.56 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about MRL?
Our models span a range for Merlin Properties SOCIMI SA: cautious scenario €3.28, base €7.56, optimistic €11.41 per share (as of Nov 5, 2026, price €11.28). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of MRL?
Merlin Properties SOCIMI SA trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 7.7 (as of Nov 5, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of €7.56 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 9 fiscal years (2016 to 2025), reported earnings: 8.9. Other multiples: PEG 2.5, P/B 0.9, P/S 11.6, EV/EBITDA 23.0.
What is the PEG ratio of MRL?
The PEG ratio of Merlin Properties SOCIMI SA is 2.48 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 5, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Merlin Properties SOCIMI SA (MRL)?
Balance-sheet figures for Merlin Properties SOCIMI SA (as of Nov 5, 2026): return on equity 9.9%, debt of 0.52 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 53/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is MRL from its 52-week high?
Merlin Properties SOCIMI SA trades at €11.28, about 28% below its 52-week high of €15.75 and at the low of €11.25 (as of Nov 5, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of €7.56 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Merlin Properties SOCIMI SA?
From the same area (Real Estate) we also value BXP, Inc, Alexandria Real Estate Equities, Inc, Vornado Realty Trust, Gecina, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Merlin Properties SOCIMI SA stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 5, 2026: price €11.28, calculated fair value €7.56 (−33%), Quality Score 53/100, from 15 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of MRL calculated?
We run Merlin Properties SOCIMI SA through 15 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of €7.56, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.5% above its aggregate fair value. Merlin Properties SOCIMI SA itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Merlin Properties SOCIMI SA (MRL)?
The closing price on Nov 5, 2026 was €11.28. Our model-based fair value is €7.56, about 33% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Merlin Properties SOCIMI SA right now?
The model range is unusually wide (€3.28 to €11.41). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (53/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF.
Where does the earnings growth of Merlin Properties SOCIMI SA (MRL) come from?
Earnings per share at Merlin Properties SOCIMI SA grew +0.0 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +0.6 %, EBIT margin −0.7 %, tax rate −0.1 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +0.2 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Merlin Properties SOCIMI SA
How large is the market capitalisation of Merlin Properties SOCIMI SA (MRL)?
The market capitalisation of Merlin Properties SOCIMI SA is €7.0B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Merlin Properties SOCIMI SA (MRL)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Merlin Properties SOCIMI SA is 11.6 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Merlin Properties SOCIMI SA (MRL)?
Earnings per share at Merlin Properties SOCIMI SA are €1.47 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 7.7). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Merlin Properties SOCIMI SA (MRL)?
The dividend yield of Merlin Properties SOCIMI SA is 2.0% (payout 15.0%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Merlin Properties SOCIMI SA (MRL)?
The net margin of Merlin Properties SOCIMI SA is 142% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Merlin Properties SOCIMI SA (MRL)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Merlin Properties SOCIMI SA is 9.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Merlin Properties SOCIMI SA (MRL)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Merlin Properties SOCIMI SA is 2.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Merlin Properties SOCIMI SA (MRL)?
The operating margin of Merlin Properties SOCIMI SA is 69.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Merlin Properties SOCIMI SA (MRL)?
Revenue at Merlin Properties SOCIMI SA is growing +14.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg +7.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Merlin Properties SOCIMI SA (MRL)?
Earnings per share at Merlin Properties SOCIMI SA are growing +16.6% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Merlin Properties SOCIMI SA (MRL) carry?
The net debt of Merlin Properties SOCIMI SA is €3.9B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 9.5 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Nov 5, 2026