Mitsui Matsushima Holdings Co., Ltd (MTSMF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 30, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Mitsui Matsushima Holdings Co., Ltd stock $7.88, price $9.00, that is 12.5% below the price, quality 40 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 24 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 11, 2026.
How to read this chart
15‑month range $8.06 – $9.00 · fair‑value band $7.08 – $8.89 · the $9.00 price screens above the $7.88 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 11, 2026.
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Mitsui Matsushima Holdings Co., Ltd., through its subsidiaries, engages in the consumer goods, industrial products, and energy business in Japan and internationally. The company operates, generates, and sells solar power to electric power companies.
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The company offers produces and sells drinking straws and food containers; office equipment centering on shredders; sells pet foods and related products; sells of hardware and plastic products for housing and furniture; and sells roll products, such as recording paper for register rolls.
It provides mask blanks for liquid crystal panels, organic EL and electronic components; measurement devices and production facilities for crystal devices and related hardware and software; insulator strings and metal fittings; food processing machines; sells power transmission chains and conveyer chains; sells industrial roller chains; real estate lending for business operators and real estate brokerages; engages in holding, investment, management, and trading of stocks; operates and manages renewable energy power generation including solar power generation; manages real estate owned in Nagasaki Prefecture, and Mitsui Minato Club.
The company was formerly known as Mitsui Matsushima Co., Ltd. and changed its name to Mitsui Matsushima Holdings Co., Ltd. in 2018. Mitsui Matsushima Holdings Co., Ltd. was incorporated in 1913 and is headquartered in Fukuoka City, Japan.
Stock analysis
Mitsui Matsushima Holdings Co., Ltd (MTSMF) currently trades at $9.00, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $7.88, 12% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $12.26 per share, and 11 of the 24 models we run sit above the $9.00 price.
Bear case: the Growth DCF group reads lowest at $6.23, and 13 of the 24 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $7.08 (bear) to $8.89 (bull), the price of $9.00 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 40/100 (below-average quality), in the Energy sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Mitsui Matsushima Holdings Co., Ltd reported revenue of ¥65.5B in FY2026 versus ¥46.6B in FY2022, a compound +8.9%/yr. Reported net income was ¥6.7B in FY2026, compounding +5.6%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap $345M Small · P/E ratio 15.8 · P/S ratio 1.62 · EPS (TTM) $0.5700 · Dividend yield 4.5% · Net margin 10.3% · Return on equity 11.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) 17.9% (5-year average).
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 39 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades at its 52-week high and 8% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at −25% fair-value upside, at −12%, MTSMF screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$7.08Fair Value $7.88Bull$8.89
Price $9.00 · Downside -12.5%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 7 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.1048 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
FCF DCF$2.58$3.96$6.2976
Growth DCF$2.72$4.03$6.0775
Residual Income$8.28$9.21$10.8273
All 24 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF$2.58$3.96$6.2976
Owner Earnings$1.08$2.02$3.6170
5Y Revenue Exit$4.70$8.29$13.5468
5Y EBITDA Exit$4.36$7.70$12.1470
5Y P/E Exit$5.64$9.91$15.0167
10Y Revenue Exit$3.52$5.94$8.6063
10Y EBITDA Exit$3.53$5.61$7.8565
10Y P/E Exit$4.24$6.85$9.3961
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd$7.72$9.84$11.2065
EPV$7.92$9.27$10.3971
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM$8.69$9.36$10.3567
DDM Multi-Stage$8.69$10.38$12.5065
Multiples
P/E Multiple$11.92$15.90$19.8763
P/S Multiple$9.96$13.28$16.6058
P/B Multiple$9.05$12.07$15.0855
EV/EBIT$4.61$8.66$12.7063
EV/EBITDA$1.72$4.80$7.8862
EV/Revenue$1.77$5.75$9.7449
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)$0.2400$0.3600$0.450055
Growth DCF
Growth DCF$2.72$4.03$6.0775
Rev-Margin DCF$4.70$8.42$12.9368
Economic Profit
Residual Income$8.28$9.21$10.8273
ROIC Compounder$7.92$9.27$10.6369
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E$8.58$12.26$15.9365
The fair value above starts from this blend and is adjusted for dilution from new shares.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
+8.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−6.5%
’22
’23
’24
’25
’26
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in JPY ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in JPY: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
−11.3%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−15.8%
Dividend (yield on the price)4.5%
Profit margin 2022 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.18% → 15%
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+21.1%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (figures in JPY, Japan: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 1.3% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +18.6% a year for the price.
Compare Mitsui Matsushima Holdings Co., Ltd with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Thermal Coal · 83 stocks
Beats the industry median on 10/14 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score40 · Below median
Fair Value upside−12.5% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)11.6% · Above median
Return on assets5.3% · Above median
Net margin (12 months)10.7% · Above median
Operating margin (12 months)16.0% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)15.2% · Above median
Dividend yield (12 months)4.5% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.33× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Thermal Coal median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)15.8× · Cheaper than median
P/B0.99× · Cheaper than median
P/S (12 months)0.81× · Cheaper than median
Price / free cash flow (fiscal year)16.6× · Pricier than median
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Is Mitsui Matsushima Holdings Co., Ltd (MTSMF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 11, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $7.88 versus the last price from Sep 30, 2026 of $9.00, about 12% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of MTSMF?
Our model-based fair value for Mitsui Matsushima Holdings Co., Ltd is $7.88 (as of Nov 11, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. Last price (from Sep 30, 2026): $9.00.
What is the quality score of MTSMF?
Mitsui Matsushima Holdings Co., Ltd has a Quality Score of 40/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Mitsui Matsushima Holdings Co., Ltd (MTSMF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $7.88 (as of Nov 11, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario $7.08, optimistic scenario $8.89. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Mitsui Matsushima Holdings Co., Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $7.88, about 12% lower versus the last price from Sep 30, 2026 of $9.00 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $7.08, optimistic scenario $8.89. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Mitsui Matsushima Holdings Co., Ltd (MTSMF)?
Mitsui Matsushima Holdings Co., Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about ¥67.8B (latest available figure, as of Nov 11, 2026).
Does Mitsui Matsushima Holdings Co., Ltd pay a dividend?
Mitsui Matsushima Holdings Co., Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of 4.45% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 11, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Mitsui Matsushima Holdings Co., Ltd (MTSMF) and when is the ex-dividend date?
Mitsui Matsushima Holdings Co., Ltd pays a dividend of $0.401 per share a year, a dividend yield of 4.5%. The next ex-dividend date is Mar 30, 2027. The payout ratio is 35.3% of earnings. Free cash flow covers the dividend 1.40 times. Our assessment: Well covered. A low payout and the dividend is fully funded by free cash flow, a comfortable, sustainable dividend.
What growth is priced into Mitsui Matsushima Holdings Co., Ltd (MTSMF)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Mitsui Matsushima Holdings Co., Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by +21.1 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.2 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 4 years revenue grew +8.9 % per year. As of Nov 11, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of MTSMF use?
Our models discount Mitsui Matsushima Holdings Co., Ltd at 11.2 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.99, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Mitsui Matsushima Holdings Co., Ltd that is +21.1 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (11.2 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Mitsui Matsushima Holdings Co., Ltd (MTSMF) delivered so far?
Over the past 4 years revenue at Mitsui Matsushima Holdings Co., Ltd grew +8.9 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of +21.1 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Mitsui Matsushima Holdings Co., Ltd (MTSMF) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +13.2 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Mitsui Matsushima Holdings Co., Ltd (+21.1 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Mitsui Matsushima Holdings Co., Ltd (MTSMF)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 6.03 %: that much free cash flow Mitsui Matsushima Holdings Co., Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.2 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Mitsui Matsushima Holdings Co., Ltd (MTSMF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Mitsui Matsushima Holdings Co., Ltd it is $7.88 per share (as of Nov 11, 2026), against a price of $9.00. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models in 8 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is Mitsui Matsushima Holdings Co., Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 11, 2026, MTSMF trades above its calculated fair value: price $9.00, fair value $7.88, a gap of about −12% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of MTSMF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($9.00); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($7.88). For Mitsui Matsushima Holdings Co., Ltd the two are $1.12 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Mitsui Matsushima Holdings Co., Ltd worth?
The market values Mitsui Matsushima Holdings Co., Ltd at about $345M (market capitalisation, as of Nov 11, 2026). Per share that is $9.00; our models calculate a fair value of $7.88 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about MTSMF?
Our models span a range for Mitsui Matsushima Holdings Co., Ltd: cautious scenario $7.08, base $7.88, optimistic $8.89 per share (as of Nov 11, 2026, price $9.00). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of MTSMF?
Mitsui Matsushima Holdings Co., Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 15.8 (as of Nov 11, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $7.88 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 1.0, P/S 0.8, EV/EBITDA 5.5.
How solid is the balance sheet of Mitsui Matsushima Holdings Co., Ltd (MTSMF)?
Balance-sheet figures for Mitsui Matsushima Holdings Co., Ltd (as of Nov 11, 2026): return on equity 11.6%, debt of 0.33 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 40/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is MTSMF from its 52-week high?
Mitsui Matsushima Holdings Co., Ltd trades at $9.00, at its 52-week high of $9.00 and 8% above the low of $8.35 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $7.88 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Mitsui Matsushima Holdings Co., Ltd?
From the same area (Energy) we also value China Shenhua Energy Company, Shaanxi Coal Industry Company, Adani Enterprises Limited, China Coal Energy Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Mitsui Matsushima Holdings Co., Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 11, 2026: price $9.00, calculated fair value $7.88 (−12%), Quality Score 40/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of MTSMF calculated?
We run Mitsui Matsushima Holdings Co., Ltd through 24 models from 8 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of $7.88 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.0% above its aggregate fair value. Mitsui Matsushima Holdings Co., Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Mitsui Matsushima Holdings Co., Ltd (MTSMF)?
The latest price we hold is from Sep 30, 2026 and stands at $9.00. Our model-based fair value is $7.88, about 12% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Mitsui Matsushima Holdings Co., Ltd right now?
The price sits above our optimistic bull case: the favourable scenario is already priced in. The data supports the verdict: every model runs on fully documented inputs.
Key figures of Mitsui Matsushima Holdings Co., Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Mitsui Matsushima Holdings Co., Ltd (MTSMF)?
The market capitalisation of Mitsui Matsushima Holdings Co., Ltd is $345M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Mitsui Matsushima Holdings Co., Ltd (MTSMF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Mitsui Matsushima Holdings Co., Ltd is 1.62 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Mitsui Matsushima Holdings Co., Ltd (MTSMF)?
Earnings per share at Mitsui Matsushima Holdings Co., Ltd are $0.5700 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 15.8). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Mitsui Matsushima Holdings Co., Ltd (MTSMF)?
The dividend yield of Mitsui Matsushima Holdings Co., Ltd is 4.5% (payout 70.3%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Mitsui Matsushima Holdings Co., Ltd (MTSMF)?
The net margin of Mitsui Matsushima Holdings Co., Ltd is 10.3% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Mitsui Matsushima Holdings Co., Ltd (MTSMF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Mitsui Matsushima Holdings Co., Ltd is 11.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Mitsui Matsushima Holdings Co., Ltd (MTSMF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Mitsui Matsushima Holdings Co., Ltd is 17.9% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Mitsui Matsushima Holdings Co., Ltd (MTSMF)?
The operating margin of Mitsui Matsushima Holdings Co., Ltd is 16.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Mitsui Matsushima Holdings Co., Ltd (MTSMF)?
Revenue at Mitsui Matsushima Holdings Co., Ltd is growing +15.2% versus a year earlier (3y avg −6.5%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Mitsui Matsushima Holdings Co., Ltd (MTSMF)?
Earnings per share at Mitsui Matsushima Holdings Co., Ltd are growing +76.2% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Mitsui Matsushima Holdings Co., Ltd (MTSMF) carry?
The net debt of Mitsui Matsushima Holdings Co., Ltd is ¥44.5B (fiscal year 2026, ≈ 13.5 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Nov 11, 2026