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The9 Ltd (NCTY) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Nov 10, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of The9 Ltd stock $2.52, price $2.78, that is 9.4% below the price, quality 21 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. The value is an estimate: none of our valuation models currently carries, it draws on revenue and assets compared with similar companies. Updated daily.

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Financial Services US · ADR · Based in China

TL The9 Ltd logo Thin data Nov 10, 2026

The9 Ltd

NCTY · US
Expensive, weak quality

Our calculation puts a fair price 9% below what the stock costs today.

Highly profitable · 69.5% net margin (TTM)
Low debt
Expensive Growth (revenue 5y +180.1 %/yr in USD)
Revenue last quarter 81% below a year ago.
Fair value $2.52 · Overvalued
Quality 21/100
Negative free cash flow
Trails peers (3/9)
Narrow moat 40/100 · thin data
Thin data
Estimate
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

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Price vs Fair Value

$163.00 $2.54 Fair Value $2.52 Aug 2021 Nov 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 10, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $2.54 – $163.00 · fair‑value band $1.89 – $3.14 · the $2.78 price screens above the $2.52 fair value. As of Nov 10, 2026.

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Company profile

The9 Limited operates as a cryptocurrency mining company in China, Eastern Europe, Asia, and North America. It operates through Cryptocurrency Mining and Online game services segments.

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The company provides IT with technical services for the operation of computer software and related businesses, including the provision of systematic solutions for the operation of internet websites, the rental of computer and internet facilities, daily maintenance of internet servers and databases, the development and update of computer software, and other related technical and consulting services.

It also develops and operates mobile and computer games, as well as publishes and services MIR M, an online game. The company was incorporated in 1999 and is headquartered in Shanghai, the People's Republic of China.

Stock analysis

The9 Ltd (NCTY) currently trades at $2.78, while our estimate is $2.52, 9% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

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Valuation

None of our valuation models currently carries for this company, usually because of losses or heavy investment. The estimate draws on revenue and assets compared with similar companies and is less precise than a model-based fair value.

Scenario range: $1.89 (bear) to $3.14 (bull), the price of $2.78 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 21/100 (below-average quality), in the Financial Services sector.

Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.

The9 Ltd ADR reported revenue of 108M CNY in FY2025 versus 134M CNY in FY2021, a compound −5.3%/yr. Reported net income was −402M CNY in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap $42.5M Micro · P/S ratio 0.72 · EPS (TTM) $−0.8600 · Return on equity 7.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) −52.8% (5-year average) · Operating margin −1,233% · Revenue (TTM) 63.5M CNY · Revenue growth (YoY) −80.8%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 40 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 66% below its 52-week high and 9% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −16% fair-value upside, at −9%, NCTY screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value

Bear $1.89 Fair Value $2.52 Bull $3.14
Price $2.78 · Downside -9.4%
Estimate. None of our valuation models currently carries for this company, usually because of losses or heavy investment. The estimate draws on revenue and assets compared with similar companies and is less precise than a model-based fair value.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 21/100

It rates the business: profits, how they develop, real cash, balance sheet, investing and share count.

Profitability 1
How much profit the company makes from its sales and capital
Quality Growth 27
Are margins and returns getting better?
Cashflow 0
Do the profits arrive as real cash?
Financial strength 50
Debt, balance sheet and risk of trouble
Investment 67
Does it invest with discipline instead of growing at any price?
Low Volatility 0
How calm the share price moves, does not count
Price momentum 4
Price momentum of the last 3 to 12 months, does not count
Near the 52-week high 2
Distance to the 52-week high, does not count
New shares 0
Buys back shares or issues new ones?

Open the full quality analysis →

Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 57/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
−4.8%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+0.9%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+180.1%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +8.5% a year
Revenue growth 24 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+13.2%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−38,089.6% (2019) → −229.6% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

NCTY screens overvalued: fair value 9% below the price. Compare with Morgan Stanley →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Capital Markets · 455 stocks

Beats the industry median on 3/9 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 21 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside −9.4% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months) 7.1% · Below median
Return on assets −67.7% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (12 months) 69.5% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY) −80.8% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.06× · Below median

Valuation Multiplesvs Capital Markets median · lower = cheaper

P/B 1.07× · Cheaper than median
P/S (12 months) 4.46× · Pricier than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)21 · sector 32
FUTURE (revenue growth)0 · sector 58
PAST (return on equity)29 · sector 31
HEALTH (low debt)97 · sector 94
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 46

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Capital Markets stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value Compare
Morgan Stanley MS $187.56 $260.72 +39% vs NCTY
The Charles Schwab Corporation SCHW $93.03 $117.60 +26% vs NCTY
Guotai Haitong Securities Co 601211 ¥16.21 ¥18.02 +11% vs NCTY
Nomura Holdings NMR $9.51 $10.17 +7% vs NCTY
The Goldman Sachs Group GS $910.19 $766.86 −16% vs NCTY
CITIC Securities Company 600030 ¥25.53 ¥20.42 −20% vs NCTY
Robinhood Markets, Inc HOOD $81.33 $47.60 −41% vs NCTY
Macquarie Group MQG A$249.23 A$123.84 −50% vs NCTY
East Money Information Co 300059 ¥18.78 ¥6.72 −64% vs NCTY
Interactive Brokers Group IBKR $77.59 $17.48 −77% vs NCTY

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The9 Ltd ADR: fair value per Fair Value Calculator

Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "The9 Ltd ADR Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/NCTY

Frequently asked questions

Is The9 Ltd (NCTY) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 10, 2026, our estimate of fair value is $2.52 versus a price of $2.78, about 9% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of NCTY?
Our estimate for The9 Ltd is $2.52 (as of Nov 10, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $2.78.
What is the quality score of NCTY?
The9 Ltd has a Quality Score of 21/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for The9 Ltd (NCTY)?
Our calculated price target is the estimate of $2.52 (as of Nov 10, 2026). Cautious scenario $1.89, optimistic scenario $3.14. It is an estimate from revenue and assets compared with similar companies, because none of our valuation models currently carries, not an analyst target.
What is the The9 Ltd ADR stock forecast for 2026?
Our estimate puts fair value at $2.52, about 9% lower versus a price of $2.78 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $1.89, optimistic scenario $3.14. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of The9 Ltd (NCTY)?
The9 Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 63.5M CNY (latest available figure, as of Nov 10, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of The9 Ltd (NCTY)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For The9 Ltd it is $2.52 per share (as of Nov 10, 2026), against a price of $2.78.
Is The9 Ltd ADR stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 10, 2026, NCTY trades above its calculated fair value: price $2.78, fair value $2.52, a gap of about −9% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of NCTY?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($2.78); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($2.52). For The9 Ltd the two are $0.2600 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is The9 Ltd ADR worth?
The market values The9 Ltd at about $42.5M (market capitalisation, as of Nov 10, 2026). Per share that is $2.78; our models calculate a fair value of $2.52 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about NCTY?
Our models span a range for The9 Ltd: cautious scenario $1.89, base $2.52, optimistic $3.14 per share (as of Nov 10, 2026, price $2.78). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of The9 Ltd (NCTY)?
Balance-sheet figures for The9 Ltd (as of Nov 10, 2026): return on equity 7.1%, debt of 0.06 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 21/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is NCTY from its 52-week high?
The9 Ltd trades at $2.78, about 66% below its 52-week high of $8.22 and 9% above the low of $2.54 (as of Nov 10, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $2.52 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to The9 Ltd ADR?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value Morgan Stanley, The Goldman Sachs Group, The Charles Schwab Corporation, Interactive Brokers Group, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is The9 Ltd ADR stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 10, 2026: price $2.78, calculated fair value $2.52 (−9%), Quality Score 21/100. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.1% above its aggregate fair value. The9 Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of The9 Ltd (NCTY)?
The closing price on Nov 10, 2026 was $2.78. Our estimate is $2.52, about 9% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with The9 Ltd ADR right now?
Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.

Key figures of The9 Ltd

How large is the market capitalisation of The9 Ltd (NCTY)?
The market capitalisation of The9 Ltd is $42.5M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of The9 Ltd (NCTY)?
The price-to-sales ratio of The9 Ltd is 0.72 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of The9 Ltd (NCTY)?
Earnings per share at The9 Ltd are $−0.8600. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the return on equity of The9 Ltd (NCTY)?
The return on equity (ROE) of The9 Ltd is 7.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of The9 Ltd (NCTY)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of The9 Ltd is −52.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of The9 Ltd (NCTY)?
The operating margin of The9 Ltd is −1,233% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at The9 Ltd (NCTY)?
Revenue at The9 Ltd is growing −80.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg +0.9%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much free cash flow does The9 Ltd (NCTY) generate?
The free cash flow of The9 Ltd is −32.3M CNY (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does The9 Ltd (NCTY) carry?
The net debt of The9 Ltd is 176M CNY (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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