Orange S.A. (ORA) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 5, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Orange S.A. stock €5.49, price €15.34, that is 64.2% below the price, quality 44 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 22 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range €6.69 – €18.27 · fair‑value band €4.92 – €7.31 · the €15.34 price screens above the €5.49 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 6, 2026.
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Orange S.A. operates as a telecommunications operator in France and internationally. The company offers mobile services, such as voice, SMS, and data; and fixed broadband and narrowband services, as well as B2B fixed solutions and network services, including voice and data services.
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It also sells handsets, broadband equipment, connected devices, and accessories.
In addition, it provides IT and integration services comprising unified communication and collaboration services, such as LAN and telephony, consultancy, integration, and project management; hosting and infrastructure services, including cloud computing; customer relations management and other applications services; security services; and video conferencing, as well as sells related equipment.
Further, the company offers national and international roaming services; online advertising services; and mobile virtual network operator, network sharing, and mobile financial services, as well as sells equipment to external distributors, brokers, and operators.
It markets its products and services under the Orange brand name. The company has a strategic collaboration with Nokia and NVIDIA for the development and evaluation of AI-RAN technologies The company was formerly known as France Telecom and changed its name to Orange S.A. in July 2013.
Orange S.A. was incorporated in 1991 and is headquartered in Issy-les-Moulineaux, France.
Stock analysis
Orange S.A. (ORA) currently trades at €15.34, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €5.49, 64% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of €5.08 per share, and 0 of the 22 models we run sit above the €15.34 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at €1.08, and 22 of the 22 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: €4.92 (bear) to €7.31 (bull), the price of €15.34 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 44/100 (below-average quality), in the Communication Services sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is weak: less than 2 % a year.
Orange S.A. reported revenue of €40.4B in FY2025 versus €42.5B in FY2021, a compound −1.3%/yr. Reported net income was €538M in FY2025, compounding +23.3%/yr from FY2021. FY2021 was a trough year, so the rate overstates the trend.
Key figures
Market cap €45.2B Large · P/E ratio 3.8 · P/S ratio 0.05 · EPS (TTM) €4.06 · Dividend yield 4.9% · Net margin 1.3% · Return on equity 14.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) 3.8%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 51 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
Analysts expect earnings well below the last reported figure (earnings in transition, for example expiring patents or contracts); a fair value that looks fair on trailing earnings may then be too optimistic.
The share trades about 16% below its 52-week high and 18% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Communication Services peers we cover trades at 50% fair-value upside, at −64%, ORA screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
The price assumes far more growth than our models allow for, so the models scatter widely (€0.8700 to €9.88). Read the Fair Value as a cautious anchor, not a price target; the Growth Forecast section shows what the price assumes.
Bear€4.92Fair Value €5.49Bull€7.31
Price €15.34 · Downside -64.2%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then (€2.81 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
FCF DCF€4.40€7.66€14.0076
Residual Income€6.70€6.70€6.8776
Growth DCF€4.79€7.99€13.7275
All 22 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF€4.40€7.66€14.0076
Owner Earnings€1.46€3.51€7.5069
5Y Revenue Exit€2.48€4.91€8.4569
5Y EBITDA Exit€5.36€9.88€15.8972
5Y P/E Exit€1.21€2.72€4.5567
10Y Revenue Exit€3.00€4.96€7.0665
10Y EBITDA Exit€4.93€8.14€11.6067
10Y P/E Exit€2.36€3.56€4.6864
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd€1.38€1.79€2.0467
EPV€0.3900€1.08€1.6967
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM€3.39€3.73€4.2469
DDM Multi-Stage€3.39€4.37€5.7467
Multiples
P/E Multiple€3.34€4.45€5.5763
P/S Multiple€2.58€3.44€4.3057
EV/EBIT€0.2800€2.62€4.9656
EV/EBITDA€4.32€8.00€11.6864
EV/Revenuen/a€0.8700€3.1549
Growth DCF
Growth DCF€4.79€7.99€13.7275
Rev-Margin DCF€2.48€5.08€8.3369
Economic Profit
Residual Income€6.70€6.70€6.8776
ROIC Compounder€0.3900€1.08€1.6967
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E€2.35€3.36€4.3767
The fair value above starts from this blend and is adjusted for a year distorted by one-off effects.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is weak: less than 2 % a year.
Revenue growth 1 year
+0.3%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−2.4%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−0.9%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +0.0% a year
Revenue growth 28 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+1.9%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: adjusted.
−25.5%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−30.4%
Dividend (yield on the price)4.9%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−38.9% vs −20.8%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.13% → 8%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+4.6%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+8.4%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (euro area: IMF forecast 2.2% a year to 2030, 2.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +2.4% a year for the price and +6.0% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (99 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Hype
Recent news coverage is unusually upbeat, far more positive than stocks are typically covered.
AI conclusion: A moderate infrastructure-based moat offers some protection yet faces intense European competition together with low returns and elevated leverage.
Main risk: Direct-to-device satellite services from Starlink and similar providers could draw away mobile and broadband subscribers in underserved rural and African markets where Orange operates terrestrial networks.
Bull case: Orange could integrate its own satellite partnerships and European direct-to-device initiatives to complement terrestrial networks and retain customers in hard-to-reach areas.
Bear case: If satellite offerings prove cheaper and more reliable in rural zones, Orange might lose significant market share in mobile and broadband as customers switch to direct satellite connectivity.
Orange is commissioning Europe’s first Telesat Lightspeed gateway at its French teleport to expand into satellite connectivity. This occurs just as SpaceX’s spectrum moves trigger fresh competitive pressure on traditional telecom operators. Our models see it as overvalued. Will these satellite steps create durable new revenue faster than rivals erode the existing mobile and broadband base?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Telecom Services · 235 stocks
Beats the industry median on 7/14 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score44 · Below median
Fair Value upside−64.2% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)14.2% · Above median
Return on assets1.0% · Below median
Net margin (12 months)21.1% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months)12.5% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)5.5% · Above median
Dividend yield (12 months)4.9% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity1.27× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Telecom Services median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)3.8× · Cheapest 25%
P/B1.79× · book value is mostly goodwill ⓘGoodwill and other intangible assets are larger than the equity. The book value mainly reflects prices paid for past acquisitions, so we do not rank this P/B against the peer group.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Orange S.A. Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/ORA.PA
Frequently asked questions
Is Orange S.A. (ORA) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 6, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €5.49 versus a price of €15.34, about 64% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of ORA?
Our model-based fair value for Orange S.A. is €5.49 (as of Nov 6, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: €15.34.
What is the quality score of ORA?
Orange S.A. has a Quality Score of 44/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Orange S.A. (ORA)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of €5.49 (as of Nov 6, 2026) from 22 valuation models. Cautious scenario €4.92, optimistic scenario €7.31. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Orange S.A. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at €5.49, about 64% lower versus a price of €15.34 (overvalued). Cautious scenario €4.92, optimistic scenario €7.31. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Orange S.A. (ORA)?
Orange S.A. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €41.5B (latest available figure, as of Nov 6, 2026).
Does Orange S.A. pay a dividend?
Orange S.A. currently shows a dividend yield of 4.89% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 6, 2026).
What growth is priced into Orange S.A. (ORA)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Orange S.A. would have to grow free cash flow by +4.6 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.6 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -0.9 % per year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of ORA use?
Our models discount Orange S.A. at 8.6 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.27, country premium for France. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Orange S.A. that is +4.6 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.6 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Orange S.A. (ORA) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Orange S.A. grew -0.9 % a year. The price currently implies +4.6 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Orange S.A. (ORA) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +3.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Orange S.A. (+4.6 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Orange S.A. (ORA)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 7.64 %: that much free cash flow Orange S.A. produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.6 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Orange S.A. (ORA)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Orange S.A. it is €5.49 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026), against a price of €15.34. It is the blended result of 22 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Orange S.A. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 6, 2026, ORA trades above its calculated fair value: price €15.34, fair value €5.49, a gap of about −64% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of ORA?
No. The price is what the market pays today (€15.34); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (€5.49). For Orange S.A. the two are €9.85 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Orange S.A. worth?
The market values Orange S.A. at about €45.2B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 6, 2026). Per share that is €15.34; our models calculate a fair value of €5.49 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about ORA?
Our models span a range for Orange S.A.: cautious scenario €4.92, base €5.49, optimistic €7.31 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026, price €15.34). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of ORA?
Orange S.A. trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 3.8 (as of Nov 6, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of €5.49 is built from several models across several years. Excluding one-off items of fiscal year 2025 it is 76.7 (reported for FY2025: 153.4). Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 10 fiscal years (2016 to 2025), earnings ex one-offs: 10.0. Other multiples: PEG 0.3, P/B 1.8, P/S 2.3, EV/EBITDA 11.4.
What is the PEG ratio of ORA?
The PEG ratio of Orange S.A. is 0.34 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 6, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Orange S.A. (ORA)?
Balance-sheet figures for Orange S.A. (as of Nov 6, 2026): return on equity 14.2%, debt of 1.27 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 44/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is ORA from its 52-week high?
Orange S.A. trades at €15.34, about 16% below its 52-week high of €18.27 and 18% above the low of €13.04 (as of Nov 5, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of €5.49 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Orange S.A.?
From the same area (Communication Services) we also value China Mobile Limited, Verizon Communications Inc, T-Mobile US, Inc, AT&T Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Orange S.A. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 6, 2026: price €15.34, calculated fair value €5.49 (−64%), Quality Score 44/100, from 22 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of ORA calculated?
We run Orange S.A. through 22 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of €5.49, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.5% above its aggregate fair value. Orange S.A. itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Orange S.A. (ORA)?
The closing price on Nov 5, 2026 was €15.34. Our model-based fair value is €5.49, about 64% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Orange S.A. right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (€7.31). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (44/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
Where does the earnings growth of Orange S.A. (ORA) come from?
Earnings per share at Orange S.A. grew −5.4 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share −3.1 %, EBIT margin −0.3 %, tax rate −0.9 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −1.3 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Orange S.A.
How large is the market capitalisation of Orange S.A. (ORA)?
The market capitalisation of Orange S.A. is €45.2B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Orange S.A. (ORA)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Orange S.A. is 0.05 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Orange S.A. (ORA)?
Earnings per share at Orange S.A. are €4.06 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 3.8). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Orange S.A. (ORA)?
The dividend yield of Orange S.A. is 4.9% (payout 9.2%, on adjusted earnings, reported 18.5%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Orange S.A. (ORA)?
The net margin of Orange S.A. is 1.3% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Orange S.A. (ORA)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Orange S.A. is 14.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Orange S.A. (ORA)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Orange S.A. is 3.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Orange S.A. (ORA)?
The operating margin of Orange S.A. is 12.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Orange S.A. (ORA)?
Revenue at Orange S.A. is growing +5.5% versus a year earlier (3y avg −2.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Orange S.A. (ORA)?
Earnings per share at Orange S.A. are growing −1.9% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Orange S.A. (ORA) carry?
The net debt of Orange S.A. is €37.9B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 10.9 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Nov 6, 2026