Outfront Media Inc (OUT) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Outfront Media Inc stock $8.20, price $30.79, that is 73.4% below the price, quality 46 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 14 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 8, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $6.86 – $33.43 · fair‑value band $4.52 – $16.53 · the $30.79 price screens above the $8.20 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 8, 2026.
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OUTFRONT Media Inc. is one of the largest and most trusted out-of-home media companies in the U.S., helping brands connect with audiences in the moments and environments that matter most.
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As OUTFRONT evolves, it defines a new era of in-real-life (IRL) marketing, turning public spaces into platforms for creativity, connection, and cultural relevance.
With a nationwide footprint across billboards, digital displays, transit systems, and other out-of-home formats, OUTFRONT turns creative into powerful real-world experiences.
Its in-house agency, OUTFRONT STUDIOS, and award-winning innovation team, XLabs, deliver standout storytelling, supported by advanced technology and data tools that can drive measurable impact. OUTFRONT Media Inc. was incorporated in 2013 and is based in New York, United States.
Stock analysis
Outfront Media Inc (OUT) currently trades at $30.79, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $8.20, 73% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $15.65 per share, and 0 of the 13 models we run sit above the $30.79 price.
Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at $5.50, and 13 of the 13 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $4.52 (bear) to $16.53 (bull), the price of $30.79 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 46/100 (below-average quality), in the Real Estate sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Outfront Media Inc reported revenue of $1.8B in FY2025 versus $1.5B in FY2021, a compound +5.8%/yr. Reported net income was $147M in FY2025, compounding +42.5%/yr from FY2021. FY2021 was a trough year, so the rate overstates the trend.
Key figures
Market cap $5.5B Mid · P/E ratio 20.9 · P/S ratio 2.77 · EPS (TTM) $1.47 · Dividend yield 1.0% · Net margin 13.1% · Return on equity 36.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) 3.4% (5-year average).
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 64 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 8% below its 52-week high and 83% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at −24% fair-value upside, at −73%, OUT screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$4.52Fair Value $8.20Bull$16.53
Price $30.79 · Downside -73.4%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then ($1.00 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
In the last 6 months, one officer or director bought shares worth $127,245, on Jun 11, 2026. Over the same period, 5 people sold shares worth $2.5M.
SaleMatthew SiegelEVP, CFO2× since Mar 31, 2026: 75,000 shares, avg. $26.47$2.0MOct 1, 202610b5-1 plan
SaleMark Emilio BonanniEVP, CRO, Commercial3,385 shares at $29.82$100,941Sep 3, 2026
SalePatrick MartinSVP, Controller, CAO10,000 shares at $30.10$301,000Aug 19, 202610b5-1 plan
SaleRichard H. SauerEVP, General Counsel3× since Jun 15, 2026: 35,000 shares, avg. $31.37$1.1MJun 24, 202610b5-1 plan
BuyJames Michael NortonEVP, CRO, Enterprise4,130 shares at $30.81$127,245Jun 11, 2026
SalePeter MathesDirector2× since Nov 24, 2025: 30,000 shares, avg. $26.43$793,000May 22, 2026
SaleManuel A. DiazDirector3× since Nov 21, 2025: 33,812 shares, avg. $24.53$829,523Mar 23, 202610b5-1 plan
Plus 10 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.86/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+0.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+1.1%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.2%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +1.9% a year
Revenue growth 15 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.8%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+8.3%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+7.3%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.7.3% vs −6.3%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.6% → 17%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+26.3%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+3.9%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +23.4% a year for the price and +1.5% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (98 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
AI conclusion: Transit revenue sharing from MTA contracts supplies a multi-year cash tailwind that recoups digital investments, yet weak innovation combined with ongoing capex and leverage near ceiling constrain durability.
Main risk: Leverage near target ceiling together with continuing capex needs for digital billboards risks squeezing cash flows generated by transit contracts and programmatic sales.
Outfront Media's New York MTA revenues are crossing the minimum annual guarantee in 2026, activating a revenue share that recoups digital investments and adds to cash flows for years ahead. This comes as the firm ramps digital billboards and sees programmatic sales surge, yet it faces ongoing capex needs and leverage near its target ceiling. Will the multi-year cash tailwind from transit contracts prove more durable than the pressures from investment and borrowing costs?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.REIT - Specialty · 29 stocks
Beats the industry median on 5/14 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score46 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside−73.4% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)36.5% · Top 25%
Return on assets2.8% · Below median
Net margin (12 months)13.1% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (12 months)19.7% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)9.3% · Above median
Dividend yield (12 months)1.0% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity3.64× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs REIT - Specialty median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)20.9× · Pricier than median
P/B7.69× · book value is mostly goodwill ⓘGoodwill and other intangible assets are larger than the equity. The book value mainly reflects prices paid for past acquisitions, so we do not rank this P/B against the peer group.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Outfront Media Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/OUT
Frequently asked questions
Is Outfront Media Inc (OUT) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 8, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $8.20 versus a price of $30.79, about 73% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of OUT?
Our model-based fair value for Outfront Media Inc is $8.20 (as of Nov 8, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $30.79.
What is the quality score of OUT?
Outfront Media Inc has a Quality Score of 46/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Outfront Media Inc (OUT)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $8.20 (as of Nov 8, 2026) from 14 valuation models. Cautious scenario $4.52, optimistic scenario $16.53. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Outfront Media Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $8.20, about 73% lower versus a price of $30.79 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $4.52, optimistic scenario $16.53. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Outfront Media Inc (OUT)?
Outfront Media Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $2.0B (latest available figure, as of Nov 8, 2026).
Does Outfront Media Inc pay a dividend?
Outfront Media Inc currently shows a dividend yield of 0.97% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 8, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Outfront Media Inc (OUT) and when is the ex-dividend date?
Outfront Media Inc pays a dividend of $0.3 per share a year, a dividend yield of 1.0%. The last ex-dividend date was Sep 4, 2026. A dividend has been paid every year since at least 2014. The payout ratio is 18.2% of earnings (on adjusted earnings, reported 20.4%). Free cash flow covers the dividend 3.77 times. Our assessment: Well covered. A low payout and the dividend is fully funded by free cash flow, a comfortable, sustainable dividend.
What growth is priced into Outfront Media Inc (OUT)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Outfront Media Inc would have to grow free cash flow by +26.3 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.1 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +8.2 % per year. As of Nov 8, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of OUT use?
Our models discount Outfront Media Inc at 11.1 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 1.54, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Outfront Media Inc that is +26.3 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (11.1 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Outfront Media Inc (OUT) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Outfront Media Inc grew +8.2 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of +26.3 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Outfront Media Inc (OUT) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +2.7 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Outfront Media Inc (+26.3 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Outfront Media Inc (OUT)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 3.64 %: that much free cash flow Outfront Media Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.1 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Outfront Media Inc (OUT)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Outfront Media Inc it is $8.20 per share (as of Nov 8, 2026), against a price of $30.79. It is the blended result of 14 valuation models in 5 families (DCF Models, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Growth DCF, Economic Profit).
Is Outfront Media Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 8, 2026, OUT trades above its calculated fair value: price $30.79, fair value $8.20, a gap of about −73% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of OUT?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($30.79); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($8.20). For Outfront Media Inc the two are $22.59 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Outfront Media Inc worth?
The market values Outfront Media Inc at about $5.5B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 8, 2026). Per share that is $30.79; our models calculate a fair value of $8.20 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about OUT?
Our models span a range for Outfront Media Inc: cautious scenario $4.52, base $8.20, optimistic $16.53 per share (as of Nov 8, 2026, price $30.79). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of OUT?
Outfront Media Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 20.9 (as of Nov 8, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $8.20 is built from several models across several years. Excluding one-off items of fiscal year 2025 it is 31.5 (reported for FY2025: 35.4). Other multiples: PEG 1.0, P/B 7.7, P/S 2.8, EV/EBITDA 15.9.
What is the PEG ratio of OUT?
The PEG ratio of Outfront Media Inc is 0.99 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 8, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Outfront Media Inc (OUT)?
Balance-sheet figures for Outfront Media Inc (as of Nov 8, 2026): return on equity 36.5%, debt of 3.64 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 46/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is OUT from its 52-week high?
Outfront Media Inc trades at $30.79, about 8% below its 52-week high of $33.43 and 83% above the low of $16.86 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $8.20 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Outfront Media Inc?
From the same area (Real Estate) we also value Equinix, Inc, American Tower Corporation, Digital Realty Trust, Inc, Crown Castle Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Outfront Media Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 8, 2026: price $30.79, calculated fair value $8.20 (−73%), Quality Score 46/100, from 14 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of OUT calculated?
We run Outfront Media Inc through 14 models from 5 families: DCF Models, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Growth DCF, Economic Profit. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of $8.20 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0% above its aggregate fair value. Outfront Media Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Outfront Media Inc (OUT)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was $30.79. Our model-based fair value is $8.20, about 73% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Outfront Media Inc right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($16.53). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (46/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The model range is unusually wide ($4.52 to $16.53). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF.
Key figures of Outfront Media Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of Outfront Media Inc (OUT)?
The market capitalisation of Outfront Media Inc is $5.5B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Outfront Media Inc (OUT)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Outfront Media Inc is 2.77 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Outfront Media Inc (OUT)?
Earnings per share at Outfront Media Inc are $1.47 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 20.9). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Outfront Media Inc (OUT)?
The dividend yield of Outfront Media Inc is 1.0% (payout 18.2%, on adjusted earnings, reported 20.4%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Outfront Media Inc (OUT)?
The net margin of Outfront Media Inc is 13.1% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Outfront Media Inc (OUT)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Outfront Media Inc is 36.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Outfront Media Inc (OUT)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Outfront Media Inc is 3.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Outfront Media Inc (OUT)?
The operating margin of Outfront Media Inc is 19.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Outfront Media Inc (OUT)?
Revenue at Outfront Media Inc is growing +9.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg +1.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Outfront Media Inc (OUT)?
Earnings per share at Outfront Media Inc are growing +25.4% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Outfront Media Inc (OUT) carry?
The net debt of Outfront Media Inc is $4.0B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 20.2 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Nov 8, 2026