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Oak Valley Bancorp (OVLY) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Oak Valley Bancorp stock $23.46, price $34.32, that is 31.6% below the price, quality 59 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 6 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

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Financial Services US

OV Oak Valley Bancorp logo Broad data Nov 8, 2026

Oak Valley Bancorp

OVLY · US
Solid, but expensive

Our calculation puts a fair price 32% below what the stock costs today.

Highly profitable · 27.8% net margin (TTM)
2.2% dividend yield · Low payout
Broad data
Quality 59/100
Mixed Growth (revenue 5y +9.9 %/yr in USD)
Wide moat 65/100 · thin data
Insiders bought $139,795 (6M) · sold $75,694
Fair value $23.46 · Overvalued
Trails peers (5/14)
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$35.29 $15.59 Fair Value $23.46 Aug 2021 Nov 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 8, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $15.59 – $35.29 · fair‑value band $21.25 – $29.19 · the $34.32 price screens above the $23.46 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 8, 2026.

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Company profile

Oak Valley Bancorp operates as the bank holding company for Oak Valley Community Bank that provides a range of commercial banking services to individuals and small to medium-sized businesses in the Central Valley and the Eastern Sierras.

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The company accepts deposits through checking and savings, money market, health savings, and individual retirement accounts, as well as certificates of deposit.

It also provides commercial real estate loans, commercial business lending and trade finance, and small business administration lending, as well as consumer loans, including automobile loans, home mortgages, credit lines, and other personal loans.

In addition, the company offers Internet, online, and mobile banking services; automated teller machines; and remote deposit capture, merchant, night depository, extended hours, wire transfer of funds, and note collection services.

Oak Valley Bancorp was incorporated in 1990 and is headquartered in Oakdale, California.

Stock analysis

Oak Valley Bancorp (OVLY) currently trades at $34.32, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $23.46, 32% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $35.29 per share, and 1 of the 6 models we run sit above the $34.32 price.

Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $7.74, and 5 of the 6 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.

Scenario range: $21.25 (bear) to $29.19 (bull), the price of $34.32 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 59/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector.

Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.

Oak Valley Bancorp reported revenue of $81.7M in FY2025 versus $55.2M in FY2021, a compound +10.3%/yr. Reported net income was $23.9M in FY2025, compounding +10.0%/yr from FY2021.

Key figures

Market cap $286M Micro · P/E ratio 12.3 · P/S ratio 3.43 · EPS (TTM) $2.78 · Dividend yield 2.2% · Net margin 27.8% · Return on equity 11.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) 1.6% (5-year average).

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 65 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 3% below its 52-week high and 26% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −28% fair-value upside, at −32%, OVLY screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $21.25 Fair Value $23.46 Bull $29.19
Price $34.32 · Downside -31.6%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then ($1.74 per share) are deliberately not added. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
Residual Income $21.25 $23.46 $29.19 76
Gordon GGM $4.56 $8.11 $11.04 68
DDM Multi-Stage $4.56 $7.37 $8.67 67
All 6 models by family
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM $4.56 $8.11 $11.04 68
DDM Multi-Stage $4.56 $7.37 $8.67 67
Multiples
P/E Multiple $27.71 $36.95 $46.19 63
P/B Multiple $25.22 $33.62 $42.03 55
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $12.16 $16.30 $24.33 54
Economic Profit
Residual Income $21.25 $23.46 $29.19 76

Open the full fair value analysis →

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 59/100

It rates the business: profits, how they develop, real cash, balance sheet, investing and share count.

Profitability 36
How much profit the company makes from its sales and capital
Quality Growth 52
Are margins and returns getting better?
Cashflow 83
Do the profits arrive as real cash?
Financial strength 34
Debt, balance sheet and risk of trouble
Investment 63
Does it invest with discipline instead of growing at any price?
Low Volatility 93
How calm the share price moves, does not count
Price momentum 51
Price momentum of the last 3 to 12 months, does not count
Near the 52-week high 74
Distance to the 52-week high, does not count
New shares 77
Buys back shares or issues new ones?

Open the full quality analysis →

Insider trades

In the last 6 months, 4 officers or directors bought shares worth $139,795, most recently on Oct 28, 2026. Over the same period, one person sold shares worth $75,694. Buying cluster

  • BuyDaniel J LeonardDirector5× since Apr 29, 2026: 875 shares, avg. $33.75$29,528Oct 28, 202610b5-1 plan
  • SaleDon BartonDirector9× since Nov 12, 2025: 3,375 shares, avg. $32.34$109,155Oct 26, 2026
  • BuyAllison LaffertyDirector5× since Nov 25, 2025: 2,569 shares, avg. $32.56$83,659Aug 26, 2026
  • BuyH Randolph Holder JrDirector2× since May 12, 2026: 315 shares, avg. $32.96$10,381Aug 17, 2026
  • BuyGary StrongDirector2,000 shares at $32.50$65,000Jul 27, 2026
  • Plan buyErich A HaidlenDirector250 shares at $33.23$8,307Feb 13, 2026
  • Plan buyTerrance P WithrowDirector297 shares at $33.64$9,991Feb 13, 2026

Plus 2 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.

Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.

Source: SEC Form 4, as of Nov 6, 2026. All filings at the SEC ↗

Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 80/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
−8.6%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.9%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +10.5% a year
Revenue growth 24 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.4%
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+13.6%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+11.4%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.2%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.11.4% vs 12.5%, steady
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.35% → 38%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)

OVLY screens overvalued: fair value 32% below the price. Compare with China Merchants Bank Co →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Banks - Regional · 996 stocks

Beats the industry median on 4/13 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 59 · Above median
Fair Value upside −31.6% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months) 11.6% · Above median
Return on assets 1.2% · Above median
Net margin (12 months) 27.8% · Below median
Operating margin (12 months) 37.9% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY) 1.8% · Below median
Dividend yield (12 months) 2.2% · Below median

Valuation Multiplesvs Banks - Regional median · lower = cheaper

P/E (12 months) 12.3× · Pricier than median
P/B 1.38× · Pricier than median
P/S (12 months) 3.43× · Pricier than median
Price / free cash flow (fiscal year) 11.7× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA 2.6× · Cheapest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 8
FUTURE (revenue growth)9 · sector 47
PAST (return on equity)47 · sector 43
HEALTH (low debt)–
DIVIDEND (yield)44 · sector 53

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

HEALTH: for banks, insurers and similar financial firms borrowed money is part of the business, so we do not rate debt here.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Banks - Regional stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value Compare
Postal Savings Bank of China Co 601658 ¥5.53 ¥7.59 +37% vs OVLY
China Merchants Bank Co 600036 ¥42.88 ¥52.73 +23% vs OVLY
BNP Paribas SA BNP €91.93 €106.01 +15% vs OVLY
Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A ISP €6.18 €4.49 −27% vs OVLY
State Bank of India SBIN ₹1,019 ₹736.65 −28% vs OVLY
UniCredit S.p.A UCG €76.80 €50.44 −34% vs OVLY
Mizuho Financial Group MFG $9.40 $5.89 −37% vs OVLY
DBS Group D05 69.72 SGD 40.39 SGD −42% vs OVLY
HDFC Bank Limited HDFCBANK ₹788.25 ₹406.39 −48% vs OVLY
ICICI Bank Limited ICICIBANK ₹1,571 ₹615.63 −61% vs OVLY

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Oak Valley Bancorp Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/OVLY

Frequently asked questions

Is Oak Valley Bancorp (OVLY) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 8, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $23.46 versus a price of $34.32, about 32% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of OVLY?
Our model-based fair value for Oak Valley Bancorp is $23.46 (as of Nov 8, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $34.32.
What is the quality score of OVLY?
Oak Valley Bancorp has a Quality Score of 59/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Oak Valley Bancorp (OVLY)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $23.46 (as of Nov 8, 2026) from 6 valuation models. Cautious scenario $21.25, optimistic scenario $29.19. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Oak Valley Bancorp stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $23.46, about 32% lower versus a price of $34.32 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $21.25, optimistic scenario $29.19. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Oak Valley Bancorp (OVLY)?
Oak Valley Bancorp reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $83.4M (latest available figure, as of Nov 8, 2026).
Does Oak Valley Bancorp pay a dividend?
Oak Valley Bancorp currently shows a dividend yield of 2.19% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 8, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Oak Valley Bancorp (OVLY) and when is the ex-dividend date?
Oak Valley Bancorp pays a dividend of $0.75 per share a year, a dividend yield of 2.2%. The last ex-dividend date was Aug 3, 2026. A dividend has been paid every year since 2014. The payout ratio is 27.0% of earnings. Our assessment: Low payout. A low payout ratio: the dividend takes at most 60 % of earnings. Whether free cash flow covers it as well, we cannot see for this company.
What is the intrinsic value of Oak Valley Bancorp (OVLY)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Oak Valley Bancorp it is $23.46 per share (as of Nov 8, 2026), against a price of $34.32. It is the blended result of 6 valuation models in 4 families (Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Economic Profit).
Is Oak Valley Bancorp stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 8, 2026, OVLY trades above its calculated fair value: price $34.32, fair value $23.46, a gap of about −32% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of OVLY?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($34.32); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($23.46). For Oak Valley Bancorp the two are $10.86 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Oak Valley Bancorp worth?
The market values Oak Valley Bancorp at about $286M (market capitalisation, as of Nov 8, 2026). Per share that is $34.32; our models calculate a fair value of $23.46 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about OVLY?
Our models span a range for Oak Valley Bancorp: cautious scenario $21.25, base $23.46, optimistic $29.19 per share (as of Nov 8, 2026, price $34.32). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of OVLY?
Oak Valley Bancorp trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 12.3 (as of Nov 8, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $23.46 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 10 fiscal years (2016 to 2025), reported earnings: 10.2. Other multiples: P/B 1.4, P/S 3.4, EV/EBITDA 2.6.
How solid is the balance sheet of Oak Valley Bancorp (OVLY)?
Balance-sheet figures for Oak Valley Bancorp (as of Nov 8, 2026): return on equity 11.6%. They feed the Quality Score of 59/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is OVLY from its 52-week high?
Oak Valley Bancorp trades at $34.32, about 3% below its 52-week high of $35.29 and 26% above the low of $27.22 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $23.46 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Oak Valley Bancorp?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value China Merchants Bank Co, DBS Group, UniCredit S.p.A, Mizuho Financial Group, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Oak Valley Bancorp stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 8, 2026: price $34.32, calculated fair value $23.46 (−32%), Quality Score 59/100, from 6 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of OVLY calculated?
We run Oak Valley Bancorp through 6 models from 4 families: Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Economic Profit. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of $23.46 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. Oak Valley Bancorp itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Oak Valley Bancorp (OVLY)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was $34.32. Our model-based fair value is $23.46, about 32% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Oak Valley Bancorp right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($29.19). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (59/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Where does the earnings growth of Oak Valley Bancorp (OVLY) come from?
Earnings per share at Oak Valley Bancorp grew +16.5 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +11.2 %, EBIT margin +3.3 %, tax rate +1.4 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +0.0 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.

Key figures of Oak Valley Bancorp

How large is the market capitalisation of Oak Valley Bancorp (OVLY)?
The market capitalisation of Oak Valley Bancorp is $286M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Oak Valley Bancorp (OVLY)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Oak Valley Bancorp is 3.43 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Oak Valley Bancorp (OVLY)?
Earnings per share at Oak Valley Bancorp are $2.78 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 12.3). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Oak Valley Bancorp (OVLY)?
The dividend yield of Oak Valley Bancorp is 2.2% (payout 27.0%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Oak Valley Bancorp (OVLY)?
The net margin of Oak Valley Bancorp is 27.8% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Oak Valley Bancorp (OVLY)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Oak Valley Bancorp is 11.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Oak Valley Bancorp (OVLY)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Oak Valley Bancorp is 1.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Oak Valley Bancorp (OVLY)?
The operating margin of Oak Valley Bancorp is 37.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Oak Valley Bancorp (OVLY)?
Revenue at Oak Valley Bancorp is growing +1.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg +7.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Oak Valley Bancorp (OVLY)?
Earnings per share at Oak Valley Bancorp are growing −4.9% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Oak Valley Bancorp (OVLY) generate?
The free cash flow of Oak Valley Bancorp is $24.6M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does Oak Valley Bancorp (OVLY) hold?
Oak Valley Bancorp holds more cash than debt, $203M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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