PACS Group, Inc. (PACS) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of PACS Group, Inc. stock $46.57, price $49.60, that is 6.1% below the price, quality 54 out of 100. Rating: fairly valued. Calculated from audited financials with 24 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
How to read this chart
31‑month range $7.71 – $50.26 · fair‑value band $25.08 – $71.77 · the $49.60 price screens above the $46.57 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 6, 2026.
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PACS Group, Inc., through its subsidiaries, operates skilled nursing facilities and assisted living facilities in the United States. It also provides senior care and independent living facilities. The company engages in the acquisition, ownership, and leasing of health care-related properties.
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PACS Group, Inc. was founded in 2013 and is headquartered in Salt Lake City, Utah.
Stock analysis
PACS Group, Inc. (PACS) currently trades at $49.60, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $46.57, so the stock looks roughly fairly valued today (gap 6.5%).
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $55.21 per share, and 6 of the 24 models we run sit above the $49.60 price.
Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at $17.05, and 18 of the 24 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $25.08 (bear) to $71.77 (bull), the price of $49.60 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 54/100 (solid quality), in the Healthcare sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
PACS Group, Inc. reported revenue of $5.3B in FY2025 versus $1.2B in FY2021, a compound +45.9%/yr. Reported net income was $192M in FY2025, compounding +41.4%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $8.0B Mid · P/E ratio 28.2 · P/S ratio 1.41 · EPS (TTM) $1.76 · Net margin 4.9% · Return on equity 26.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) 5.8% (4-year average) · Operating margin 6.7%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 49 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 1% below its 52-week high and 369% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at −1% fair-value upside, at −6%, PACS screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$25.08Fair Value $46.57Bull$71.77
Price $49.60 · Downside -6.1%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then ($1.51 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
In the last 6 months, 6 officers or directors sold shares worth $114.9M and none bought.
SaleMichelle Renee LewisChief Accounting Officer4× since Jun 25, 2026: 45,000 shares, avg. $45.04$2.0MNov 4, 202610b5-1 plan
SaleMark HancockDirector, 10% owner9× since Jun 15, 2026: 1,200,000 shares, avg. $42.55$51.1MNov 4, 202610b5-1 plan
SaleJason Hulse MurrayCo-Founder, CEO & Chairman, Director, 10% owner12× since Aug 17, 2026: 1,127,431 shares, avg. $45.66$51.5MNov 4, 202610b5-1 plan
SaleJoshua JergensenPresident & COO5× since Mar 13, 2026: 196,335 shares, avg. $42.66$8.4MOct 14, 2026
SalePatrick Hugh ConwayDirector3,497 shares at $44.41$155,302Aug 14, 2026
SaleJohn Todd MitchellChief Legal Officer & Sec.2× since Nov 24, 2025: 239,708 shares, avg. $32.51$7.8MMay 18, 2026
BuyEvelyn S DilsaverDirector16,724 shares at $29.90$500,048Nov 24, 2025
Plus 11 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.90/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+29.3%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+29.7%
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip.
+16.7%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+16.7%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Profit margin 2021 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.7% → 6%
2025 sits 63% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+15.4%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+10.0%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +12.8% a year for the price and +7.5% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (91 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
AI conclusion: Expansion into high-growth Florida with 32 facilities strengthens the post-acute platform across 21 states, yet thin evidence across categories leaves durable advantages and stable profitability unconfirmed.
Main risk: Ongoing DOJ demands and SEC probe into Medicare billing, coding, COVID waivers and controls could result in fines, repayments, sanctions or operational changes that reduce revenue and margins from skilled nursing services.
Bull case: By strengthening compliance systems and leveraging its tech platform for consistent quality across the expanded footprint, PACS could resolve investigations with minimal disruption and improve reimbursement rates through better outcomes.
Bear case: Adverse outcomes from the DOJ or SEC probes could impose substantial fines, billing restrictions or operational changes that erode margins and force divestitures, while lease pressures compound if new facilities underperform.
PACS enters Florida at full scale by assuming operations of 32 skilled nursing facilities from a prior operator under an existing master lease effective October 1. The move adds thousands of beds in a high-growth state and builds on its post-acute platform across 21 states, yet it also means absorbing new teams while preserving its focus on localized care and quality outcomes. Will the added density accelerate performance gains or stretch the ability to maintain consistent standards across a larger footprint?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Medical Care Facilities · 234 stocks
Beats the industry median on 4/14 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score54 · Below median
Fair Value upside−6.1% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)26.5% · Top 25%
Return on assets3.4% · Below median
Net margin (12 months)4.9% · Below median
Operating margin (12 months)6.7% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)11.5% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.36× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Medical Care Facilities median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)28.2× · Pricier than median
P/B8.49× · Priciest 25%
P/S (12 months)1.41× · Cheaper than median
Price / free cash flow (fiscal year)26.9× · Pricier than median
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "PACS Group, Inc. Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/PACS
Frequently asked questions
Is PACS Group, Inc. (PACS) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 6, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $46.57 versus a price of $49.60, about 6% lower (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of PACS?
Our model-based fair value for PACS Group, Inc. is $46.57 (as of Nov 6, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $49.60.
What is the quality score of PACS?
PACS Group, Inc. has a Quality Score of 54/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for PACS Group, Inc. (PACS)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $46.57 (as of Nov 6, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario $25.08, optimistic scenario $71.77. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the PACS Group, Inc. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $46.57, about 6% lower versus a price of $49.60 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario $25.08, optimistic scenario $71.77. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of PACS Group, Inc. (PACS)?
PACS Group, Inc. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $5.7B (latest available figure, as of Nov 6, 2026).
Does PACS Group, Inc. pay a dividend?
PACS Group, Inc. does not currently pay a dividend.
What growth is priced into PACS Group, Inc. (PACS)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, PACS Group, Inc. would have to grow free cash flow by +15.4 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.7 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 4 years revenue grew +45.9 % per year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of PACS use?
Our models discount PACS Group, Inc. at 9.7 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For PACS Group, Inc. that is +15.4 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (9.7 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has PACS Group, Inc. (PACS) delivered so far?
Over the past 4 years revenue at PACS Group, Inc. grew +45.9 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of +15.4 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of PACS Group, Inc. (PACS) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +6.2 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into PACS Group, Inc. (+15.4 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of PACS Group, Inc. (PACS)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 3.72 %: that much free cash flow PACS Group, Inc. produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.7 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of PACS Group, Inc. (PACS)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For PACS Group, Inc. it is $46.57 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026), against a price of $49.60. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models in 7 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is PACS Group, Inc. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 6, 2026, PACS trades above its calculated fair value: price $49.60, fair value $46.57, a gap of about −6% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of PACS?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($49.60); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($46.57). For PACS Group, Inc. the two are $3.03 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is PACS Group, Inc. worth?
The market values PACS Group, Inc. at about $8.0B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 6, 2026). Per share that is $49.60; our models calculate a fair value of $46.57 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about PACS?
Our models span a range for PACS Group, Inc.: cautious scenario $25.08, base $46.57, optimistic $71.77 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026, price $49.60). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of PACS?
PACS Group, Inc. trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 28.2 (as of Nov 6, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $46.57 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 1.2, P/B 8.5, P/S 1.4, EV/EBITDA 16.5.
What is the PEG ratio of PACS?
The PEG ratio of PACS Group, Inc. is 1.18 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 6, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of PACS Group, Inc. (PACS)?
Balance-sheet figures for PACS Group, Inc. (as of Nov 6, 2026): return on equity 26.5%, debt of 0.36 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 54/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is PACS from its 52-week high?
PACS Group, Inc. trades at $49.60, about 1% below its 52-week high of $50.26 and 369% above the low of $10.58 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $46.57 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to PACS Group, Inc.?
From the same area (Healthcare) we also value HCA Healthcare, Inc, Fresenius SE, Tenet Healthcare Corporation, Dr. Sulaiman Al Habib Medical Services Group, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is PACS Group, Inc. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 6, 2026: price $49.60, calculated fair value $46.57 (−6%), Quality Score 54/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of PACS calculated?
We run PACS Group, Inc. through 24 models from 7 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of $46.57 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. PACS Group, Inc. itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of PACS Group, Inc. (PACS)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was $49.60. Our model-based fair value is $46.57, about 6% lower (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with PACS Group, Inc. right now?
The model range is unusually wide ($25.08 to $71.77). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension.
Key figures of PACS Group, Inc.
How large is the market capitalisation of PACS Group, Inc. (PACS)?
The market capitalisation of PACS Group, Inc. is $8.0B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of PACS Group, Inc. (PACS)?
The price-to-sales ratio of PACS Group, Inc. is 1.41 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of PACS Group, Inc. (PACS)?
Earnings per share at PACS Group, Inc. are $1.76 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 28.2). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of PACS Group, Inc. (PACS)?
The net margin of PACS Group, Inc. is 4.9% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of PACS Group, Inc. (PACS)?
The return on equity (ROE) of PACS Group, Inc. is 26.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of PACS Group, Inc. (PACS)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of PACS Group, Inc. is 5.8% (avg 4y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of PACS Group, Inc. (PACS)?
The operating margin of PACS Group, Inc. is 6.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at PACS Group, Inc. (PACS)?
Revenue at PACS Group, Inc. is growing +11.5% versus a year earlier (3y avg +29.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at PACS Group, Inc. (PACS)?
Earnings per share at PACS Group, Inc. are growing +15.6% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does PACS Group, Inc. (PACS) carry?
The net debt of PACS Group, Inc. is $3.0B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 10.0 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Some data
Nov 6, 2026