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Peninsula Energy Ltd (PEN) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Nov 2, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Peninsula Energy Ltd stock A$0.02, price A$0.18, that is 90.6% below the price, quality 21 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

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Energy AU · ISIN AU000000PEN6

PE Peninsula Energy Ltd logo Thin data Oct 29, 2026

Peninsula Energy Ltd

PEN · AU
Very expensive, weak quality

Our calculation puts a fair price 91% below what the stock costs today.

Low debt
Profit last quarter +121% vs. a year ago.
Fair value A$0.0170 · Strongly overvalued (−90.6%)
Quality 21/100
Weak Growth (revenue 5y −42.0 %/yr in USD)
Negative free cash flow
Trails peers (2/6)
Narrow moat 9/100
Thin data
⚠ Dilution
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

A$6.62 A$0.1700 Fair Value A$0.0170 Aug 2021 Nov 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Oct 29, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range A$0.1700 – A$6.62 · fair‑value band A$0.0085 – A$0.0255 · the A$0.1800 price screens above the A$0.0170 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. As of Oct 29, 2026.

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Company profile

Peninsula Energy Limited, together with its subsidiaries, operates as a uranium exploration company in the United States. Its flagship project is the Lance Project, which consists of the Ross Production Area, Kendrick Development Area, and Barber Exploration Area located in Wyoming.

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The company was formerly known as Peninsula Minerals Limited and changed its name to Peninsula Energy Limited in November 2010. The company was incorporated in 1993 and is based in Subiaco, Australia.

Stock analysis

Peninsula Energy Ltd (PEN) currently trades at A$0.1800, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$0.0170, 90.6% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

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Valuation

How firm this estimate is: it rests on 1 models at a data quality of 96/100, which puts the data coverage at low.

Scenario range: A$0.0085 (bear) to A$0.0255 (bull), the price of A$0.1800 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 21/100 (below-average quality), in the Energy sector.

Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.

Peninsula Energy Ltd reported revenue of $644K in FY2026 versus $25.2M in FY2022, a compound −60.0%/yr. Reported net income was −$75.9M in FY2026.

Key figures

Market cap A$103M (≈ $72.3M) Micro · EPS (TTM) A$−0.3000 · Return on equity −43.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) −6.0% · Operating margin −12,316% · Revenue (TTM) $654K · EPS growth (YoY) +121% · Free cash flow −$64.5M.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 9 out of 100 (medium confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 82% below its 52-week high and 6% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at −59% fair-value upside, at −91%, PEN screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear A$0.0085 Fair Value A$0.0170 Bull A$0.0255
Price A$0.1800 · Downside -90.6%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
NCAV (Graham) A$0.0100 A$0.0200 A$0.0300 52
All 1 models by family
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) A$0.0100 A$0.0200 A$0.0300 52

The fair value above starts from this blend and is adjusted for dilution from new shares.

Open the full fair value analysis →

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 21/100

It rates the business: profits, how they develop, real cash, balance sheet, investing and share count.

Profitability 0
How much profit the company makes from its sales and capital
Quality Growth 29
Are margins and returns getting better?
Cashflow 0
Do the profits arrive as real cash?
Financial strength 59
Debt, balance sheet and risk of trouble
Investment 43
Does it invest with discipline instead of growing at any price?
Low Volatility 50
How calm the share price moves, does not count
Price momentum 1
Price momentum of the last 3 to 12 months, does not count
Near the 52-week high 1
Distance to the 52-week high, does not count
New shares 0
Buys back shares or issues new ones?

Open the full quality analysis →

Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 0/100
Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Revenue growth 1 year
−68.3%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−77.9%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−42.0%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −19.9% a year
Revenue growth 26 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+16.2%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−6.8% (2021) → −4,764.7% (2026)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2026 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

PEN screens overvalued: fair value 91% below the price. Compare with Cameco Corporation →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Uranium · 26 stocks

Beats the industry median on 2/5 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 21 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside −90.6% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on assets −37.3% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.01× · Below median

Valuation Multiplesvs Uranium median · lower = cheaper

P/B 0.40× · Cheapest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)0 · sector 0
PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 0
HEALTH (low debt)99 · sector 98
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 0

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

Oil & gas

Similar stocks

10 more Uranium stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value Compare
Boss Energy Limited BOE A$1.45 A$0.9600 −34% vs PEN
Centrus Energy Corp LEU $103.29 $55.95 −46% vs PEN
CGN Mining Company 1164 HK$2.10 HK$1.08 −48% vs PEN
Uranium Royalty Corp UROY $3.35 $1.62 −52% vs PEN
Atha Energy Corp SASK C$0.8400 C$0.3485 −59% vs PEN
Deep Yellow Limited DYL A$0.7350 A$0.1900 −74% vs PEN
China National Uranium Co 001280 ¥56.59 ¥11.54 −80% vs PEN
Berkeley Energia Limited BKY A$0.7950 A$0.1400 −82% vs PEN
Ur-Energy Inc URG $0.8518 $0.1300 −85% vs PEN
Cameco Corporation CCJ $76.91 $10.14 −87% vs PEN

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Peninsula Energy Ltd: fair value per Fair Value Calculator

Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Peninsula Energy Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/PEN.AU

Frequently asked questions

Is Peninsula Energy Ltd (PEN) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 29, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of A$0.0170 versus a price of A$0.1800, about 91% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of PEN?
Our model-based fair value for Peninsula Energy Ltd is A$0.0170 (as of Oct 29, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: A$0.1800.
What is the quality score of PEN?
Peninsula Energy Ltd has a Quality Score of 21/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Peninsula Energy Ltd (PEN)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of A$0.0170 (as of Oct 29, 2026) from 1 valuation models. Cautious scenario A$0.0085, optimistic scenario A$0.0255. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Peninsula Energy Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at A$0.0170, about 91% lower versus a price of A$0.1800 (overvalued). Cautious scenario A$0.0085, optimistic scenario A$0.0255. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Peninsula Energy Ltd (PEN)?
Peninsula Energy Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $654K (latest available figure, as of Oct 29, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Peninsula Energy Ltd (PEN)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Peninsula Energy Ltd it is A$0.0170 per share (as of Oct 29, 2026), against a price of A$0.1800. It is the blended result of 1 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Peninsula Energy Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 29, 2026, PEN trades above its calculated fair value: price A$0.1800, fair value A$0.0170, a gap of about −91% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of PEN?
No. The price is what the market pays today (A$0.1800); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (A$0.0170). For Peninsula Energy Ltd the two are A$0.1630 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Peninsula Energy Ltd worth?
The market values Peninsula Energy Ltd at about A$103M (market capitalisation, as of Oct 29, 2026). Per share that is A$0.1800; our models calculate a fair value of A$0.0170 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about PEN?
Our models span a range for Peninsula Energy Ltd: cautious scenario A$0.0085, base A$0.0170, optimistic A$0.0255 per share (as of Oct 29, 2026, price A$0.1800). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Peninsula Energy Ltd (PEN)?
Balance-sheet figures for Peninsula Energy Ltd (as of Oct 29, 2026): return on equity −43.8%, debt of 0.01 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 21/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is PEN from its 52-week high?
Peninsula Energy Ltd trades at A$0.1800, about 82% below its 52-week high of A$1.01 and 6% above the low of A$0.1700 (as of Nov 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of A$0.0170 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Peninsula Energy Ltd?
From the same area (Energy) we also value Cameco Corporation, China National Uranium Co, Centrus Energy Corp, CGN Mining Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Peninsula Energy Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 29, 2026: price A$0.1800, calculated fair value A$0.0170 (−91%), Quality Score 21/100, from 1 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of PEN calculated?
We run Peninsula Energy Ltd through 1 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of A$0.0170, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.9 % above its aggregate fair value. Peninsula Energy Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Peninsula Energy Ltd (PEN)?
The closing price on Nov 2, 2026 was A$0.1800. Our model-based fair value is A$0.0170, about 91% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Peninsula Energy Ltd right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (A$0.0255). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (21/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The model range is unusually wide (A$0.0085 to A$0.0255). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.

Key figures of Peninsula Energy Ltd

How large is the market capitalisation of Peninsula Energy Ltd (PEN)?
The market capitalisation of Peninsula Energy Ltd is A$103M (≈ $72.3M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What are the earnings per share of Peninsula Energy Ltd (PEN)?
Earnings per share at Peninsula Energy Ltd are A$−0.3000. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the return on equity of Peninsula Energy Ltd (PEN)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Peninsula Energy Ltd is −43.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Peninsula Energy Ltd (PEN)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Peninsula Energy Ltd is −6.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Peninsula Energy Ltd (PEN)?
The operating margin of Peninsula Energy Ltd is −12,316% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast are earnings growing at Peninsula Energy Ltd (PEN)?
Earnings per share at Peninsula Energy Ltd are growing +121% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Peninsula Energy Ltd (PEN) generate?
The free cash flow of Peninsula Energy Ltd is −$64.5M (fiscal year 2026). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does Peninsula Energy Ltd (PEN) hold?
Peninsula Energy Ltd holds more cash than debt, $22.0M net (fiscal year 2026). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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